The disinterest in India is hard to miss | Advantage Research

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Though one may dare say that it was clear as early as late 2009 when the Bull run had already started but Quality FIIs had not planned anything for India, India has long-lived with the notion that though it might grow, not many investors are ready to let it stand up to them as its monetary mechanics don’t match big bully China but still are not as pliable as rent driven Mexico or squeaky clean Chile and in Asia, the Nams and the Bangladeshs. We ran through two great Sensex upticks fueled by a smattering of FDI cream and mostly Domestic investment good for at least 20% of GDP into the stock markets. We are also not great candidates for hot money but still the last quick bull strapping of the markets happened in March on $1 billion and three days of reactions got it down to worse with the same amount lost.

Now in one day of trading we have chalked up another $500 million and talks of support at the more comfortable 5500-5600 levels. Though short interest might want a stable target of even 5300 and noises have been heard baying for more, it is not in the nature of the Indian markets to respond to that extent as Central Bank policies, protection and liberalisation mean only micro-trend formation and are unable to either destroy any value motive in the current valuations or grow into a bigger superpower, though even now to that there is a studied upward bias in India’s fortunes and even stripped of hope one is staring at multiple upward re-ratings and higher weights for much neglected India.

Till that comes, none of us are losing sleep over it, resulting in keeping us busy on the treadmill running the status quo without much traction, repeating micro-cycles and even bigger trends since that day in September 2008 when the world turned on its head and cemented the plan to let growth lead in a very few years. that also does not mean there has been any reduction in the ranks of EM haters and that Democrat or Republican US policy continues to favor more tribal neighbours like Pakistan and continue to disfavor higher value relationships with India in Defence with a non NATO, non militant national government with an independent state policy.  with all its nice sounding tinges that is the same list of limitations in the reforms statute and the growth conscripts since the nineties almost 25 years back when we started a journey fueled by investment and reform pain.

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