Happy Thursdays! The india inflation reports for September

As usual, with the monthly WPI slated later in the day, the static 9.32% weekly inflation rate for Oct 1 is not the focus. Policy rates in india will likely continue bucking the global rate cut trends as inflation is being imported from fiscal dilution across globall currencies and RBI is likely to continue its hawkish stance on inflation and September numbers likely to be another high watermark for inflation

The Exports for August continued a 40% + growth but underlined the weak equilibrium wth the increasing fiscal deficit of nearly $15 bln for the month on a much smaller base and the unlikely possibility of fiscal discipline bearingt to the target of 4.6% after a new borrowing program of INR 600 bln chaining market expectations

A likely 9.5% – 10% mark for inflation with continuing rise in food and fuel inflation, shows the independence of policy mechanisms and growth in India’s situation

The August IIP was a dismal 4.1% against July’s more dismal 33% and manufacturing was robust at 5.5% IMF reduced its 2012 forecast to 7.5% while Indian ministers and Planning Commission Dy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia admitted challenges in 2011/12 and that India will return thereafter to a 9% trajectory comfortably

Auto Sales hrt by 2 days of strikes at Maruti were reported near the low 135k mark for 4 wheelers while 2 wheelers grew strongly in September to 500k and 350k for Hero and Bajaj Auto

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