The Last Thursday of the month, promises among them a “sequestered” trading week in the US as the markets close for the holidays today afternoon. The promise of lower short positions on the Nifty also seems a little possible as only 51% of the contracts have been rolled over, and the markets may find enough reason for extended short covering in today’s move down and post Cabinet meeting in the upward shake off
That is at best a hope. 51% FDI in multi brand retail, a reality. From 5000 SKUs in Mom & Pop stores to growing more 60,000 SKU modern retail franchises, India would have certainly come a long way when we check again a year later. Walmart and Bharti Easy day retail have been around for 3 years now, Carrefour and others waiting to start their emerging markets experiment and the Sun has been rising in the east for most paranoid investors as valuations calm down to underbought and oversold in India. A thumbs up for all those who are active on the short side too. The breakdown means that the bottom is much lower, so do not start large cap trades right now. Appollo Hospitals though struck me as an enigma that could last. So could IGL and Concor and in two weeks he aviation guys could come back.
In consumption stories, HUL has reached its optimum at below 400 levels (and UBS got that) while Jubilant has raised Pizza prices by 8.5%. A 100 pizzas a day still means a lo of profit for each branch so the Dominos’ decor would survive competition from other brotherly brands they add.
Inflation is riding high, India a systemic story and will not be coming down despite the trending down in non food inflation over the last 2-3 weekly readings. Manufacturing flash PMI plunged in China to 46 levels with double digit drops in input and output prices and new orders for the monthly figures but China is in the home plate, the last lap of the tough times to surpass before June and global indices will continue to plunge before the US markets reopen next week, A big bang on Monday is likely as Black Friday flash figures gladden the hearts of US watchers
There will be only one pullback in the rupee, either now or two weeks later if and when Jet signs up more FDI
Food Inflation fell from 11.63% in the last week to 10.01% for the week ended November 10, 2011, though onion prices have come in 33% lower, vegetables and pulses are still higher by 17% and 12%. As the guv’nor mentioned yesterday, this is probably as India moves on to higher consumption needs on the food chain in more proteins(Bennett’s Law), that supply is not ready for. Primary Articles ticked lower to 9.08% as non food inflation hit a low 4.05%. Fuel inflation continues a t the new level of 15.49%
- India’s FDI renewal – Extant FDI policy guidelines (FDI in Multi-Brand Retail) (advantages.us)
- Happy thursdays! Wishing you an easy expiry (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Happy Thursdays! F&O Expiry vs FDI in retail (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Happy Thursdays! Let’s forget inflation, aviation, consolidation and eternal damnation (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Bullish on FDI in retail by DEC 2011 (2bindasbol.wordpress.com)