Healthcare remains free – 100% FDI

India Gate

India’s Pharma market is a paltry INR 565 bln currently, Just cardiovasculars and diabetics constituting less than $ 2 bln each across a universe of global MNCs and Indian diaspora supplying generics globally. In a nation of 120 bln people or 25 bln households, 10 bln households of which are below the poverty line, it is a quandary not many can resolve. The pharma companies already see only one strategy to increase the per capita usage. increase prices so much that even if they bought half the medicine they bought last year they would end up with a higher per capita consumption. The CCI is apparently reviewing this unnecessary price increase in the system, A Food Security Act in place may further improve longevity ( at least for the common man / analyst leaning on logic to make an infererence)
English: GSK Factory Glaxo Smithkline manufact...
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However any larger study will show that by back of envelope calculations if we looked at the 98% uncovered population of the country without medicare as spending a per household 15,000 on medicines for the year for children, OTC, prescription and the stereess related disorders for the husband and wife the 24.5 bln would end up spending INR 367.5 tln or $7 tln on medicines and I dare say hospital care would be an extra amount more than this consumption expense. Of course the 10 bln poor families would depend on state sponsored insurane and low cost care for these requirements.

100% FDI has been persevered with in this sector. Both for greenfield projects thru the automatic route and brownstone projects thru the approval route

However, Lupin and Cipla do not seem to have a buyer after being on the market. The global situation could well be to blame for that and the fact tat sales of $1 bln barely are hardly the scale someone is looking for to enter the market. Like in automobiles, the lack of scale just whets the appetite for global players to explore independednt plays from scratch and market realities stop them from taking the plunge as such a large market does not forgive mistakes easily

On the Hospitals side of the Heathcare sector, players such as Fortis are still trying to take advantage of the amorphous nature of an emergent industry , valuation and transfer pricing issues likely to continue to plague the industry as a whole as for other sectors with Vodafone again taking the fall in one of the first decisions by the Tax man

MNC players have hung back till now in poharma, but they do not have any more reason to do so, India by itself could be a bigger market than Africa as a whole and while GSK and others have moved on to growing NGO initiatives in Africa (GAVI) for the immediate scale possible, the India market is likelier the more profitable market with and without NGO participation and sponsorship.

English: Wordmark of Cipla. Trademarked by Cipla.
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State funds however are unlikely to come this way till Food, infra and defence are paid, both healthcare and education eternally waiting for the state and the planning commission to realise their importance with higher more tangible contributions. India’s state owned low cost health infrastructure is one of the most well spread across the 3 lac odd villages with many still outside the ambit of affordable healthcare comparible only to banks without India’s ‘large unbanked population’ still ominpresent in towns throughout the country, not even accessible for weeks at a time in certain cases

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