2012 India Economic Survey

Inflation 6.5-7 % by March

Recommends Fixed rate of Diesel subsidy /Litre

FY12 Growth at 6.9% ( as per Advance Estimates , GDP to INR 52.5Tln )

Survey projects 7.6% +/- 0.25% for FY2013

FY14 Growth seen at 8.6%

Inflation may fall even below 6.5% in FY13 but Monetary policy needs to adjust to fluctuationsin Oil and adjust prices regularly

Again in repeat from last year, Petrol pricing neds to be based on a transparent formula.

India needs fiscal consolidation and spending curbs in 2013 >> ..and inflation may tick down further does not match again and no investment in the Economy right now

Sustained high rates may hurt reality,and services sector

Inflationary forecasts at elevated levels building on the reverse base effect probably from FY12 to FY13 but that is slower demand led lower tack for inflation at its worst

Trade Deficit of 8% a matter of concern and FDI in retail important ( Multi Brand without local sourcing restrictions – Our additions in bold/italics)

Bravo: We are moving forward on Direct transfers of Subsidies for Food and kerosene (sorry AAdhar)

Land Acquisition Issues vital

Infra Finance a key concern

Need Aggressive stand to check rupee volatiliy but constrained by size of reserves

Deficit expansion due to lower Revenues not just subsidies

Recommend Customers pay for Higher crude prices – Sure!

We doubt though employment conditions have improved (monsterindia_ ) and depression in growth may jump the savings cables but the survey expects: Savings and Capital Formation expected to rise!

See slippage in FY12 Fiscal Deficit Target –

WHILE Proceed without MidTerm




Fiscal Profligacy


Fiscal + Fiscal +1

UNTIL DEficit = 8% and Mamta = Laloo = Nitish/50 (2%) – NAMO*3/2 


Verdict: Why is growth back when we are in fiscal profligacy without investment

more special duties and fine tweaking of excise rates tomorrow instead of tackling reform in budget yet striving for stretched revenues

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