Where’s everything headed, then?

We as india writers have pushed out everything with insight in the last three four years, short of  the unworthy Indian infrastructure which could not attract even $100 bln in Gross investments yet with two debt funds of $3 bln each and some older established PEs like Macquarie and 3i and the Govt of India grants of INR 750 bln. Short because Indian Infrastructure sector with all the public enterprises involved is very short on the details and as it works without meaningful graft like the Telecoms, the Roads, Power, Aviation and Ports infrastructure continue to work with construction companies like our FMCG sector works with $500 mln brands from HUL, P&G and ITC and we are the wrong ones because we criticise something as if it was the end of the road for the sectors in each case and nothing else going to happen because it is not.

At least that is also what the Dy Governor of the RBI, Subir Gokarn seems to feel if we read into his new timetable to plan out Capital Convertibility for India. FDI in India has always been able to attract the bigger dollars irrespective of investors’ fascination with issues like the retroactive introduction of taxability of transactions and the impossibility of investing more than tokens of currency in our banking sector with restrictions of M&A or the recent failure of FDI in multi brand retail/ defence, healthcare and aviation.

The true problem comes in India’s cultural intractability compared to China or Signapore or others total rolling out of the Carpet for the bbigger dollar including the State sponsorship of the project, and not an immobilised set of half dozen land reform and Tax reform bills, and the Private state and comsumer acceptance of that way of life that the investment unwittingly imports itself with. Being open to cultural transfusion, this is a real anachronism always heaped on  the middling old politicians who could not run coalitions but it runs deeper as the next few generations will find out.

Probably what we need to bring in each sector is like the perfect storm, at least two representative investor in each such sector, like probably Yum with KFC and Pizza Hut and Tata Global – Starbucks and or Dominos with the Bhartiyas where there are unlikely to be any hiccups with all three biting the bullet and all government departments, consumers and politicians able to sell and compare. I would even aver that the 2g  experiment is still very much a success for the FDI story right now. A similar base exists in Banking where the world’s Top Banks are increasingly looking to Asia and India in particular to roll out bigger base staff or the magic wands that the local and global Harry Potters need to win the magical sorcerers over at state and center.

Whether it is International Quality standards for Highways or structured products in Banking, Indians more than other s are Comparison shoppers who like to think their Point-Of-View is appreciated and part and parcel of the product/standard unlike others who let FDI build a parallel Eco system, much like empty highways and cities outside Bejing while the Eastern corridor esp  around Beijing keeps cars stuck in Traffic queues that take three days to move from end to end, or even more

The simplification stated in that, is to be taken with the usual detailed quid pro quos and the details of a contract like bringing the capabilities to service rural consumers becoming a new reality for banks, auto and credit card and durables/discretionary sector plays from Pizza to That larger personal loan than the $500 on my Kissan Credit Card.

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