FX Predilections: Euro continues to prosper in Indian FX Hamlet

The Euro has broken the sound barrier by going below 1.27 overnight and is trading at near time lows as it completes the down move to 1.22-1.23 but given the queer hedging and predispositions of indian exporters and currency traders the Dollar depreciation seems to be keeping enough pace to drive Euro to a matching significant depreciation in the EURINR trades. The shallow market thus seems to be proffering a great opportunity ( sarcasm should be detected!) for those caught long on the Euro as the cross Fx movement has a long way to go before it catches up to Euro’s own depreciation which continues unabated as silent options for the euro to exit or rather for Greece and others to exit the Euro present itself. The Euro is stable of course but there is hardly anything to stop it till 1.19 and thus it seems a degree of political chicanery and shortsighted ness is involved in the hot trade keeping the Euro to 69.27-69.5 to the EURINR rate when it should easily settle below 68 and the near forward should also in the extreme case lose its premium on the currency. 

Spanish auctions went by cheerfully even as Spain paid a 50% higher yield on 3-4 yr bonds to 4.38%


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