The past months made the current 135 point rise in the Nifty today almost an Herculean effort as 1 in 6 $ for Indian ETFs have been withdrawn. Also 25% of the Futures derivatives Business has moved back to SGX Nifty in Singapore and Dubai General DGCC Exchanges as nespapers report. Pranab da is seriously moving to Raisina hill and everyone’s on edge waiting. The government meanhile is trying hard to get the retail FDI saga restarted having withdran most of the discretion from the retro activation of GAAR rules.
Of course the current rally is a temporary respite and there is more pain to come as the new old 6% watermark ( remember the Hindu rate of growth) comes back for India. And then thre are the FII investors and analysts bothered by the 30% premium India enjoys for its liquid markets and developed industry et al that they do not want to come in the way of a good return . so buying could still take some more time to return, but history tells us that india would not ait for Secondary portfolio investing for much long once its hardly 2-3% of the retail population gets activated on the trading and the Indian story starts working, most non India centric Investment Banks having suffered the fate on missing half the India bull run. But the Current Account Deficit issues are not solved yet and the Fisc is going to stay at least around 5.5% and the current conditions are a sea change from the growth momentum that has become a benchmark for India. Meanwhile China controls most of the Shanghai Cooperation council and may not like India onthe board of the Old Silk route nations,