India Morning Report (June 17, 2012) – Greece reeled in, Dollar runs down before RBI policy hour

A preponderence of Euro Citizens saved Greece by the bell but left democracy in the lurch as the pro Euro New Democracy landed 129 out of 130 required in the 300 member Greek parliament. The ultimate winners get 50 extra seats in the Greek system. New Democracy leader Antonio Samara would therefore be in hectic parleys to put up a coalition with other Conservative parties like the Pasok administration who were in power when EUR 174B in bailouts was granted to Greece after GGB haircuts that reduced investor obligations

The weekend achieved its “targets” leaving the week to a relief rally till Euro gets into the short mode again, this time from 1.28 to 1.26 levels, while the Dollar index trends down from 81.5 last week. Good news for the rupee and the equity markets, continuing from where they left off on Friday

Autos remaina lousy bet in India despite the interest rates getting better but Banks will likely star in any ongoing rally and even correction and ICICI Bank remains a good bet for the good days. HDFC Bank hasn’t been really overbought either and others could wait a while to shrug off the excess momentum from a week back

President Mukherjee’s announcement as candidate would be welcome news for the Indian markets before RBI policy hour on Monday. The elections for the president are unlikely to yield any other result though with elections still likely even NDA may yet get confused and get a candidate out there. 

India’s exports have crossed 25% of GDP and that statistic alone is the reason rate cuts have already been achieved in the 25% depreciation of the Rupee. Even if the Rupee settles at a 15% net depreciation over the year ago rates, that would mean 1.5% in rate cuts plus the 25 bp factored in by bond markets today Probably because of our imports, a mint report puts together RBI and IMF data that says, a 1% decrease in rates is equal to a 1.4% depreciation for the rupee in Economic results


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