The Dollar index having been a shield for the rupee move ‘up’ to 56.4 levels ( 57 in July/Aug futures) it is high time is ignored on the way south as the Euro is artificially pumped to all time highs against the rupee when it is ruling at a 200 bp crash overnight. And again the fall in the Dollar will not have a concomitant rub on effect on the Sensex genie as it stays at around 16950-17000 levels to consolidate and absorb the CCI landmark decision. A new FM is a mile away as the market expects to swing PM Manmohan Singh away from the seat and convince the UPA to give it to unlikely PMEAC head C Rangarajan, or old war horse in the Home ministry Chidu.
That is a lot of fundamental actions for one market to digest, but the grain of further depreciation has been likely nipped and the markets have earlier never let the Dollar index ride it to a skew and will likely bring it back first based on a Euro cross rate normalisation and then make a nother move for sterength of the rupee or otherwise. Bu tthen that move would inherently be strengthening of the Rupee.
Sectors like Banking are good to hold, Automobiles good to sell but no trading shorts please, unlikely that they have yet to tral more bottons except for a quick correction in HEROMOTOCORP
Today, upticks in construction are unlikely to hold but Healthcare may be in for a nice cozy breakfast with investors.
Rupee opened at 56.90 in June
- India Currency Report: An early break for the Rupee (awardz.wordpress.com)
- No QE, no dollar depreciation (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Happy thursdays! Trading weary market ranges, damned currencies and a farming civilization (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Rupee Impact: Why the Euro can’t fall enough for the Rupee (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning report (June 19, 2012) – Equities finally shrug off the blues (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Rupee tumbles 25 paise against dollar (news.in.msn.com)
- Rupee hits all-time low of 56.57; RBI intervenes to stem slide (news.in.msn.com)
- Rupee at 55.68 against US dollar after initial losses (news.in.msn.com)