India Morning Report (July 05, 2012) : Risk on trade continues, yet a stalemate

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Of course no one’s fighting to take the Nifty down now but some are waiting if they can buyin again at lower levels an oft repeated strain since August 2011

However the correction though not perfectly correlated will depend on the weakening in the rupee as it becomes another export dependent economy without consumption growth as in Brazil, Australia China and Russia. Not to confuse the bulls, wea re still doing well, PMI at 55 and Services Indices at 54.3 athe best showing globally currently and a 5% growth guarantee at this bottom means India’s premium is justified and riskakers would be growin gIndi’s share . As BRICS follower Jim O Neill and now Goldman Sachs aver, the BRIC markets are at a 33% discount to their share of world GDP of 25% in their share of investment trades in Equities at 16% so the immediate opportunity in those which have steadied the tide in an environment of uncertainity, will get  alarger benefit of the global liquidity injections.

Ofcourse, India participation by FIIs remains capped and Policy decisions continue to teak within India’s share literally capped at 5% in the Global Indices

Acorrection is unlikely as Consolidation has held, and the investors must be patient. The Rupee may let the Dollar recover durin gthe day today as emerging currencies broke their 4 day run yesterday

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