Morning Trading Strategies – India August 07, 2012

“It’s quietly positive across asian markets” notheard for a long time now but true for today and the Aussie (AUD ) has already run to 1.06 against the Dollar’s strongest run in the last three months to its strongest levels guessin gthat the RBA will not be cutting rates in a hurry as demand for Australian resources from its Asian customers is still not able. Howverthe SGX is as clear on the Nifty as ever and overseas investor interest in India keeps adding to aSia’s share than take away from other candidates in the area, while China battles a slowdown in consumer spending apparently with its own shadow surpluses that will be pressed into servicing the Economy’s groth in the second half of the year. Indian consumers have not disappointed yet and this coming at the bottom of the growth cycle shows the resilience and strength ofthe indian model and current valuations bely the recurring theme of “probably overpriced” wrt indian Capital markets.

HDFC Bank and Kotak will likely continue up with Axis and ICICIBank in the lead after the late rush on the HDFC and Kotak scrips yesterday afternoon. index based strategies will not pay as SGX has learnt from last month and the Rupee will bnot trende stronger more easily given its current 55.5 levels till real strength in performance comes in. That shows up Technology and Construction stocks and more ill gravitate towards shorting DLF and WIPRO not INFY. Also don’t get red on other sectors including Healthcare or Educompa t this stage and even DLF might run to 222 before receding,. LICHSGFIN probably gives much more options and a rally in manappuram could follow if the northbound move continues. Hat Tips from SS and the brilliant analysis by Nikunj of the DLF result sheet made my morning again as I work through so many different subjects to start the Indian morning 

BIOCON buy looks great from here, DLF’s disappointing results had already been faactored in but underperform guidance by almost 40% on residential as well as leased space and sales are down 15% Y/Y . Reliance alone could allow the other index scrips leaving for the netherworld including BPCL again. BAJAJ, JPASSOCIAT, CAIRN and SUNPHARMA are surefire big picks too with 5% upside targets thru the day. 

Markets may open at near high levels and fresh intraday positions would be out of scope for now as the Rupee has shown too.  




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