Morning Trading Strategies – India August 21-24, 2012

The jump has happened and now you must wait for the retraction to complete, which the markets have seen a clear aversion to doing the last 2-3 months. Of course it also meant the market stayed above key support levels throughout and that means people resist cheaper scrips as selling and buying back is a waste of transactions for many portfolio managers and investors. 

However, the market will not start another move till it is sure the downward forces haved moved it to a lower equilibrium and that just means waiting till that happens at 5380-5390. If it indeed falls below 5365, run for the hills and stay in cash. Expiry is near and anything except sold puts ( nearer 5375 than 5425) of 5400 and 5300 strikes anything else is contraindicated and easy meat for the onlookers waiting for a bigger correction than the equilibrium.

Banks should be worth investing at such lower levels including SBI and HDFC BANK. Axis and ICICI Bank are not necessarily going to lose too much of the regained premium eitherbut YES and KOTAK can probably take a break and Union , United, Karnataka and Canara Bank resume downward with BANKOFBARODA holding recent recovery gains.   

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