Currencies have finally ended the series with the USDINR trading very much where it began a month ago, trading at 55.67 from 55.63 when the week began. Banknifty has virtually broken 10000 on the downside and looks like a good short but when the pop comes in the running correction is entirely at one’s own risk. September is unlikely to trade above 56 either and October and November may then even see a rally in the Rupee if economic data plods back to a normal sequence of positives.
China is indeed in the throes of not having recovered from the dontick in Exports to Europe and the same is likely resulting from its inept statistical signals on domestic consumption where retail remains the weak link yet keeps showing exceptional double digit performance in government statistics. Europe’s coming liquidity event has likely become a run on commodities which have been dull after the bottom in April 2011 and the correction in Indian / Asian equities will see its first challengesin the rise in Commodities from there. Us equities saw bigger outflows in July already and the correction now is more a wait and watch as it completes Elections and has reached 1400 on the S&P500
RR as the new CEA in the PM’s Office will likely have a quick turnaround on procedural items but may restrain himself in public forums unless the FM has already synced the agenda or another few PC fronts are likey to strain the Jaitley quorum filter before the year is out.