India Morning Report August 31, 2012: Shorts roll into the next contract

Bharti and returning Interest in banks remain a safe vantage point as the market tries to descend into chaos rollling over positions in  Dabur, Sesa Goa and hindalco and exiting Bajaj Auto and HCL Tech at the same time. Orchid’s sale of aPI businesses to Hospira thouhgh low key is unlikely to bring interest back to the stock for some time. Markets have opened dull to remain range bound at lower levels throughout the day a fact o be repeated again this eek and next. However September series may still make up a good 300 point range on the Nifty in due course. 

The IT boon is finally done despite the defensive interest in August as short interests trawk markets for old highs and find TCS HCL and even Mindtree good targets to hit. Redefinitions of IT shares in MF and ETF portfolio will rerate these stocks adversely too to lessen the impact of exiting Infosys and may later pop interest in TCS hich definitely has alarger share of mouth as the only signature holding whenre the sector is indeed put on the backburner

The rebooted FinMin agenda is unlikely to survive on the disinvestment flyers and the INR1.44Tln in promoter IPOs also to sell dowwn stakes to a minimum of 25% public holding unwelcome liquidity  in these climes. Speculation interest will likely return on the upside by next Monday. The Vedanta Hind Zinc/BALCO sale may ( speculating) hit the public fora in early 2013 and really pop any emerging uptrend at that time

From eDabba to Miraaya ET also offers business models looking to penetrate Tier II tons as mint reports on the rising internet penetration in villages up 80% but still less than 5% of the rural population. Consumer companies like Marico have otherwise reduced ad spend as % of sales while HUL and one guess ITC ill manage with the highest budgets on A&M (15% for Lever) 

Personal SAvings have fallen below 10% of GDP in this Fiscal and the downtrend is unlikely to stop as “Urban” india dips into savings in tune with the much tighter global crisis. Settlements at Citi  ($600 m) still have bigger suits from Aviva waorth $3 B in damages to follow and Barclays’ new CEO Jenkins is likely to drive out of Asia faster as he is not an investment bankeer, crude but effectiev starting points for gauging their capital participation in the India story. Asia is likely to stay out of fashion in September though unlikely to se and outflows as Euro awaits its tryst with liquidity and JAckson hole rerites global central bank expectations down a notch to go back to goevrnance led investment led consumptionand growth

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