India IIP Report: (September 2012) An incipient recovery may not take monthly comparisons

Though providing monthly updates may have its advantages, quarterly tracking of the monthly IIP itself solves most of the cyclical trading and investment decision needs of the data as the organisations involved mull another ‘restructuring’ of the data series that relies on 31% Capital Goods and 38% Infrastructure production in the series. Ming and Utilities are reverbing as the more critical pieces having benen down from their averages longer and deeper. WPI data follows on Wednesday. CPI was reported a lower 9.42% instead of 9.76% for Octoeber almost concurrently to IIP announcements as overall CPI is 9.75% static over the September data while rural data has tipped to almost 10% at 9.98%

Electricity series has recovered well to 3.9% . Of course year on year figures are really not indicative after the big jump still keeping sentiment at its depths re performance but is up from 3% on August and negative in June 2012

Counterfeit jewelry
Counterfeit jewelry (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Consumer goods data has gone negative again at -1.3%  from 5% in August and Intermediate goods are almost flat at 1.8% on month and 1.6% in June 2012. In June, Consumer Goods data was stronger on durables growth of 9% at 3.5% and Festive season has been good enough despite the discouraging data for September (Durables -1.7%, non Durables -1.1%)

The overall PMI Composite for India stood at a high of 55 in September and is only 53.5 in October but still among the highest globally. The September IIP data is a degrowth 0.4% after a degrowth of 1.8% in June 2012

June data was sharply negative on Capital Goods at -27.9% The September series continues at a double digit negative clip of -12.2% but policy hurdles seem to be out of the way from the brakes still on in June

August IIP has been revised downward to 2.3% as well, showing up the incipient recovery in the face but Mining sector’s chugging back to normal is reflected in the statistics well at a positive 5.5%

Basic Goods growth was a positive 3.5% in September over 5.3% in August and the overall Manufacturing Sector is a negative 1.5% against a negative 3% in June and positive 3.5% a year ago

Services and Utilities data have been very strong in India’s version of the crisis in IIP since 2009 but have finally hit a big disruption canyon in 2011 which has continued ravaging India’s growth prospects into 2013 as it returns to the fabled Hindu rate of growth of near its least 5% even as China transitions into the Developed World ready to strike at per Capita benchmarks set by Europe and the USA




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