India Morning Report: Burn time..no its still the new year rally

The shorts will likely pay badly for their early 2011 shennanigans as bulls leave the outside the offstump temptation well alone unlike that famed middle order and the retired doppelganger and a to be coach with the big win record ( those not interested in Dhoni semantics and test cricket may leave the outswinger / beamer / valid ball too) Dhoni of course should have tendered his resignation in any other day and time and become a selector instead.

Back on the markets. the markets are on the ball and the budget expectations would be built by a media raring for something at least as positive as a 10% growth target but which realises that India Inc is up against a wall and continuing to perform for one of India’s best performances right in the middle of the Big Fisal Canyon where governments of NDA, UPA, Economists and Politician Heirs have hung themselves out to dry, India Inc having left behind the game of riiding on low base performance effect to produce performance and India’s fiscal disadvantages showing in each month’s import bill like it was that night club in Paris

And there end’s Thursday’s serial effect on my language above. 

India inc has nothing to report having already set up great expectations for FY2014 and the government has nothing else to showcase having already shown its hand and unlikely to be able to do more than basic math to produce anything inspiring in the budget and that would (wince@leisure) likely lead to electoral giveaway type weak discipline being held up while like the DTC , GST and other fiscal discipline thru math and thru law is thrown to the wind a day after the Feb 28 budget presentation. 

Why any of it should lead to any further reduction of FII interest is the pertinent question for the markets and having founded a specific India club like the very standalone India Inc itself, India is unlikely to see anything less than a 50% increase in FII positions as they know exactly what is ahead while the Emerging Market Juggernauts which ETFs received 50% of the $8.6 B into equities in the first week of December and FII inflows and FDI inflows would scale near to their all time indian peaks at $35 Bln in FII and $25 B in FDI instead of $45 Bln or as China produced after two years of struggle at the bottom –  a clean $100 Bln for CY 2012

One hopes the budget is able to operationalise Debt financing and quasi SWF  financing for the great $3 Tln Infra spending chasm  and add to education and healthcare funding but ” it ain’t gonna happen” dear

in specific stosks, ITC seems to be targeted to correct all lifestyle conpanies ( Consumer Non discretionary) to a good restart point and that tells me both ITC and Bharti (Discretionary/Infra) will likely keep most of their new levels in the new rally to come. IDFC is up next for big hitters and should continue the strength in Power NBFCs from REC and PTC(despite the odd ball newsiness) or PFC and Powergrid while LIC Housing finance has definitely moved int ot he bigger speculative position plays than in 2011 or 2012 . Kotak and YES could be the ones benefitting most from institutional reclassification into “BLUE CHIPS” of the india portfolio

 

 

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