Though the Planning commission decides most of the Capital investment allocations beforehand including government’s share of state spending and Big Ticket Infrastructure spending, the Bidget document next month is still likely to give enough impetus to the incumbent government to approach the General elections in 2014 positively ‘under new management’. Apart from Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to the throne which needs to be sponsored or vetted by India Inc sooner than later, India is now mostly looking at global cues after, as the MOS man, Raamdeo Agrawal said on TV18 right now, problems in both the energy and IT services sectors have been resolved for the time being.
We are headed for true deregulation in energy prices and that’s a relief for ratings hawks as well as those items of profligate public spending when it was indeed all getting burned up in oil spend (subsidy)
A few items of trivia glue that has confetti sticking to India Inc’s big weekend party and the world at large before we begin the Monday Morning Dharma. China’s labor force has decreased by a large 3.45 mln this month from more than 940 mln last year. GDP growth in China was yet 7.9% after a 7.4% November taking the 2012 number to 7.8% overall and likely saving it from recession adding just under 3 mln in new jobs, and urban populations almost stopped growing with expected rural migration to 712 mln (urban population)
Swiss banks are indeed closing down, the first one in the world at Wegelin the first victim having started in 1741 but Davos is still happening with the wworld’s wealthiest and the large Bank CEOs and Presidents making it there to party into the night. JP Morgan CEO Dimon though paid out $11.5 mln half his 2012 package for indiscretions as head of CIO investments. Global banks have paid nearly $5 B in fines between HSBC and UBS for regulatory oversight and half , especially those with European lineage are shutting down their business in Investment Banking
More importantly the Aussie is roaring back even as US markets remain closed today and the BOJ likely to hit the precipice button when they meet on QE spending for Japan later in the day, the Yen already circling 90 and in recent history reaching almost 25 years since it has eyed the 100 mark to the US Dollar, let alone the AUD
Taxes on the super rich, seem unlikely unless the next General elections cause another rupture in stability that the media is almost imperceptibly wishing for, to solve their quads of issue boredom. Another month and we will be just tlaking budget wishes in duty cuts and tax writeoffs in the run up to the budget , all serving to mask any new legs of India’s Economic policy that may be unleashed in Budget 2014. Stock up on big banks and Infracos apart from the leads on NBFCs unloess you had indeed been waiting for Infosys and OIL to come back, whence you must book profits this week and watch. The OIL divestment will indeed release nearly 30 bln for the GOI fisc blues. Another intersting issue taking shape is how the regulators and FinMin will stop the bleed as MNCs dry up profits with larger royaalties back home leaving their now not to be delisted Indian arms with nothing to entice domestic shareholders and a government backlash is inevitable despite the GOI having allowed then unlimited royalty just in December 2009