India Morning Report: A patent denied to similar molecules, a new bank invested

India inc is on the final upswing awaiting results that begin pouring in 10 days including IndusInd and NMDC, new Nifty components from this series. Indusind will infact produce results for Q4 and Full year on April 15, 2013. Infy will kick off mega results season on April 12 and HDFC Bank is relatively quicker with FY2013 results on April 2013. SBI and ICICI Bank will follow IDFC towards the end of the season in Mid May likely, while ING one of the early birds is sure of beating the retail credit degrowth by another 20% plus growth, making this year the most successful for the bank after the cutback in branches and a credit plateau in 2011. Indusind itself was barely INR 1.71 B in profits in FY11 and INR8 Bln in FY12 but will be looking to cross into the $200 mln plus scores this year, tracking its own transparent ethic in new call metrics for Financials in its online investor presentations.

The denying of evergreening to Novartis and in India by the Supreme Court does mark a long felt policy statement that was steadily ignored by MNCs and definitely contributed to the non expansion of the organised domestic drugs market. The denial specifically related to a Glivec patent and now all similar process/produc molecules can be produced locally by all Indian manufacturers allowing expensive treatments for Cancer and other life threatening diseases or inconveniences like Diabetes to be replicated with cheaper drugs. The domestic paharma market in India will eventually come out as more drug regimens around the world agree to cheaper alternatives despite recent large funding of expensive treatments for free distribution by Global NGOs (philanthropic foundations) being pushed by Big Pharma as the real emerging market possibility. Ofcourse China has still proved to be more fertile ground for Global Pharma and despite marketing agreements and big bang breakups the big four of this industry are still looking for breakthrough strategies in India and Merck and others may continue to delist

Yes Bank’s joining IPL6 as Sponsor and Kotak’s run for the bheja fry savings are likely to become staple fare in the next two months during IPL as well and deposit growth continues contraindicating the Industry’s challenge as select downgrades of Syndicate Bank and IOB probably hint at a new Banknifty/Bankex to come though still just a self meandering conclusion as PSU banks continue to surprise depite specific underperformance now traceable to long lost NPAs still on Balance sheet

The early rally in the April series may still however meander down after the Infy and TCS results two weeks later though the disappointing sector performance or disappointing FY14 guidance will apparently not be triggers with market expectations suitably starting low.

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