India Morning report: Oil signals treated as critical sell levels for the Rupee (This week in Asia on

English: Graph showing Indian rupee and U.S. d...
English: Graph showing Indian rupee and U.S. dollar exchange rate from January, 1990. 日本語: 1990年1月からのインド・ルピーとアメリカドルの為替レートのグラフ。 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

An old adage for the market, it is now a repeated phenomena in the global markets for India to retain the dubious double distinction of heralding global commodity lows and be cornered by the slightest sentiment building in Oil. The day thus is a weak barometer but may soon gain ‘tumbling’ significance for global currency markets as the Rupee will be decimated to even beyond 65 levels if Oil rally does gain strength.

However as it is unlikely to happen for now, long investors may not be able to leave Indian shores before it eventually does, giving the upper hand to hot money flows as opportunities run out with the Yen at 99 and Euro also not facing new substitute demand, yields going up from global lows in various central bank auctions in Europe throughout June bringing short term rates to near above 0.5% and even closer to the 1% mark from momentum extrapolation(as will likely show)

The Indian Rupee has been closely pinned down earlier in 2009 and lack of buyers remain its “new” worry in global trade share increases as Yuan manages a smaller volatile range despite an equally suspect recovery path due to a paradigm change from South east, Coast Only development to a more homogeneous spread as legitimised by a 5 year plan.

Back to matters at hand PSUs like BOB will probably lead the bank indices down even as most new banks will make likely a good sector lending structure possible in the higher spending towns and villages of India that have kept Rural CPI apace at double digits till now. Muthoot’s Bank may indeed be a new kind of entrepreneurial venture in banking as long as they meet RBI conditions and manage not just the minimum net worth cap but raise the bar for fellow new anks to the desired but not contingent levels of INR 2500 crores of $400mln and even INR 10000 crores or $1.6 bln whnce an opportunity the size of India may be deemed fit. This size of course may not be ready on day 1 but should nonetheless be planned to those levels with capitaal lines tied as was behind the uccess of private insurance in its infancy in 2000s

100% telecom FDI for India thus might mean in an indirect way, better days for Oil consumers even as demand returns to the US market after a good 6-8 weeks in yesterday’s reported data and are critical for the market to retain 5750 levels on equity indices. ITC and Bharti remain on the up and up in block deals for FIIs or even program trading where such volume is amenable. Yes Bank might see another block of additions by FIIs as it exits a RBI ban on foreign investments and has quite some potential before reaching the allowed 75% levels currently in the sector HDFC/Bank prognostications for a 100% FDI in the sector linking its scrip fortunes to the same may see thus a longer gestation period till the new government is in place in 2014 and indeed starts picking up the courage to forget its pre electoral hang ups with FDI if any


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