India Morning Report: Is 5600 the new 5000? Rupee is holding 65-66

With the  Rajan effect crystallising over the India investor skies, a new definition of India’s winter seems to be up as global liquidity withdrawals accelerate availability of funds from the exodus fro US bonds and a small portion is likely to start trickling back sooner than one would think.

The earlier expected recovery cycle threw up banks, infracos (IDFC, Power NBFCs ), ITC, Bharti  and Bajaj Auto and others in FMCG and Consumer Goods sectors and more or less they will make the bedrock of larger EM portfolios with or without MSCI index dependencies. Metals are good for this cycle and Tata Steel can still make it even if Global demand does not respond the way it is expected to recover in the end

Weightage maintenance is also in play and at 5600 levels that means sizable new buys fr funds that sold just a week back. The volatility till yesterdy will continue to affect timing of new investments and most invstors ahve oodles of time to play out their vaalue and growth leaders in the portfolio .

Now did I hear someone mention Rajan has to perform? Rajan would not be credited with bringing individual accountability to the RBI’s various senior officials but it is happening as we speak and Rajan hmself would know difficulties of thinking of implementing structural reform before May 14 decisions are out for India inc. The rajan effect itself was really areiteration of everyone’s agenda since 2000s , and the currency responding after controls on speculation were lifted is the unnoticed vote of confidence for India as a destination. ECB funding should be proceeding on A+ paper and equity QiPs

 

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