Friday’s closing rushes on the Rupee trade could be just another chimera as the China miasma refuses to scare foreing investors from China and other shallow EMs renamed MINTs. China also reported an improved Services PMI implying the trade situation could improve for it and its partners including Aussie, USA and India. However, things overall continue to look bleak for global growth as dependent on legs of growth in China and Europe.
Europe has been importing more, however, esp as Germany probably focusees on its own consumption for a small break after a Target imposed halcyon end to 2013. Rates are likely unchanged in Central Bank announcements and Global liquidity reprieve trades, may be ephemeral at best as Yellen returns to post snow recovery prognostications to hopefully continue along the same taper gradient $10 Bln in each policy date.
However, not to be confused by the Global Economy’s internecine interactive brusqueness, the India trade remains a leader for the Global benign trend continuing in Equities and HY debt this year and is likely to turn in better performances on the bourses than any other.
The 4.7% GDP score was not so bad except that it included at its best form, not more than 6% contribution from Services. As expected, Agriculture did not continue an extended rebound from Q2 and thus contributed to an overall disappointment for policy watchers with Governor RGR still on the edge of another couple of rate hikes and CPI close to plateauing out at a high 8% itself
Radico Khaitan is one of the bigger winners as the Equity trade in India opens to new bull scenarios, we choosing to watch after every 100 points as traders fill up the gaps and bears might give up most of their extraordinary gains in the following 6 monthsas they take each plateau of waiting for more investors as an inordinate sign of weakness or overconfidence having nbrought the hcicken count home to roost
Volatility remains at an extended low and the PCR below 1, implies one should batten down the hatches as most price levels on your choice investments would carry very little risk on sold puts . SBI and Maruti also proffer extraordinary choice to traders that need financing and are not selling puts ans positional shorts in both continue to dig for lost Mayan Gold, making it at least a year or 1200 levels before they exit with profittaking trades.
JP Associates may be out of the index but is a great plus trade ( opnly post redenomination of the Nifty) while Adani Enterpricses catches supplementary caucus support from the Adani Port bull trade. GAIL may still not make it to mainstrem positional trades or transition into a defensive but we reccommend buying the stock with IDFC and YES, while ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank individually will carry the Banknifty, PSU shorts making the Index tradea patchy non performing long
Foreign buyers saw $2.2 Bln in gross trading on the NSE itself on Friday. The return of bank investors and trading rooms including StanChart and HSBC to the bull trade on the Rupee, counld confirm secular up trades in Asia even as China gets ready for a currency depreciation battle. However, first order of business would be to observe if equities can keep up with the smaller selling that remains part of the trade in the first half of the week as markets start the series at fresh new highs of 6277.
The Sun Pharma and Hindalco trades should catch fire by the middle of the week in that scenario as mainline picks remain good for the goo but new buyers may not get them at better levels . Bharti , ITC and Bajaj Auto continue to hold strength in the consumer investments story and Services PMI returnign tot he green likely for 2014 means aviation, trade and tourism could critically support the good guys from here. The LIC and ONGC/OIL buys for BHEL and IOC are confirmed but sectoral trades aer non existent on either side. Pharma’s big week returning to substitute IT is the one certainty and not an immediate bulltrade so more consolidation is likely this wek esp if the Pharma trade does not kick in. The inevitable short trade on Hero as it yields ground to a bad February sales data will only land blows till 1850 levels as the news f the recovery should kick in the sector after new excise reduction and recovery in buying from March