Global markets tanked probably because of the strong showing by Japan in Quarterly GDP as Japanese bonds strengthened and the strengthening currency started a cascade conveniently allowing US markets to reatct negatively to good news in Asia ( highly reductive and downbeat prognosis)
However, markets will equally take to Indian news positively when Europe and US open later as India starts the call auction markets with the expected 100 point jump to the open. Apparently nearly 10- stocks can already be expected to reach 10% , 15% and 20% circuit breaker limits in the morning.
NDA’s strong showing in the polls means the political stability mandate can well start a lasting bull market for the next 10 years in this part of the world. The Euro’s woes add on to chances of a global rally from this point as Corporates outperform the French GDP and take due credit for the survival of the Western paradigm.
Banks and Power NBFCs will likely lead the growth with Reliance and SBI joining ICICI Bank, Yes Bank and others in the rumination on results all day and most attention will remain focussed on leads and what outgoing and incoming members of the lower house have to say on the new government and the mandate from the people.
The Nifty will definitely see a 7350 mark during the day as F&O ranges have moved to 8000 on the higher end and salutory OTM hedges have also reached 6000 on the lower end, the 6000 puts getting expensive at above 50 in anticipation of additional hedges required by new longer term inflows into the markets.
Arun Jaitley as Finance Minister is likely to be a positive for the markets for now and the man is likely to keep his mouth shut for the period of government formation so ther markets have definitely set 7100 as base for the rally. ICICI Bank is the easiest pick after Bajaj Auto results for Q4 were indeed tepid and cyclicals for us now restricted further to the earlier mentioned Bharti and ITC.
PSUs and L&T will be the fodder pick for fattening the markets and will not face any resistance in up moves ( HT Ashwini G. / ET Now)
The currency has moved below 59 after a long time and may see stronger trades though Fixed Income markets will likely not trade heavily this entire period of government formation for at least a week to ten days as institutional investors do not require daily trades and retail investors are unlikely to come in without deeper markets being available.
CDS spreads if traded should hope to touch record lows nearer 110 basis points on the turnaround taking hold.
Oil prices may offer a risk trade that will toughen up the ask for the incoming government and rating agencies / fund managers are unlikely to change opinions in a hurry.