India Morning Report: A sing song rise to 7400 is almost complete

The move up 65 points on Monday meant today the market could reach the high mark of 7400 with a 100 points rise in the Nifty. Given that the Banknifty rise on Monday left ICICI Bank behind and Axis Bank at 1808 can well rest without impeding this rise, the markets will probably reach the 7400 top mark well before the end of the week and the correction thence , completing the Modi at the crossroads rally with a corrective pitching in Thursday ir Friday allowing DIIs to confirm buying. ICICI Prudential recommended yesterday that the market be bought on dips and that is likely to be the recipe for the DIIs fresh from a profitable trade in IT that suffered a near 7-8% dip  yesterday’s trading in HCL Technologies and Infy. HCL Tech promoter Roshni Nadar is taking the family’s focus to Low cost Healthcare for India’s rural poor, the HCL foundation already active in the field of Higher education

IDFC saw a real uptick in interest since the announcement of the new government rising to 133 and ready to breakout to higher levels within this rally period along with infra majors like JP Associates and Relinfra as things crystallise around the budget exercise. The rise in Maruti is probably good fodder for the shorts to latch on to if the correction does ensue this week even L&T as other Gujarat stocks leave it behind. However, more importantly first the markets are likely to define good upward moves back in the defensives and Pharma companies as well, as Energy companies, Gujarat midcaps and the banks totally eclipsed their big losses yesterday, market operators doing their own quick version of the market re-rating badgering down stocks like ITC to 335 levels and HUL also suffering one thought without reason as the coming of controls on inflation and consumer spending/wages are not an automatic autopilot for the BJP government.

Glenmark Pharma should probably concentrate on growth in domestic market after some setbacks from the FDA and a still resilient positive start of secular growth in the US markets Energy stocks understandably take a breather and with volatility down 20% in the defining trade on Friday and continuing on Monday , one should see intra day ranges return to normal 1% bands than the 4-5% ranges seen last week and Monday. Power company results on Monday will likely be swamped soon about concerns over tariff realisations as the new government digs in its heels. Infra bottlenecks are also unlikely to disappear in the next 6 months as Financing has become tougher and local and state issues are likely to swamp any government quick fixes to kick off the sector in desire for good governance grades in 2014-15

The continuing focus on PSUs and PSU Banks over the big weekend has seen the sector catch up with gains in bank funds and even energy funds that benefitted from the late rally in April and May and the market is indeed looking frothy ont he indiscriminate PSU count though the good news is likely to keep the markets in gain till the month of May is indeed over.  Today’s rise in Mid cap indices is probably a portend of an index correction soon after the rise to 7400

DIIs will probably wait for a further 5% fall in IT stocks before buying back assuming an earnings score rated to the Rupee near 55 than the current estimates around 60.

Similarly, the capping of Private Bank prices in todays open predates a big short on the likes of SBI and PNB to come soon unless there is specific news to back the expectation of a big backing for State enterprises from the new lean government likely prescribed by Narendra Bhai Modi for saving Indias democracy, surely on its last legs at a current GDP growth score of 4%

The big question: Will India’s coming budget make real dreams like the first Bullet Train for India?




India Morning Report: Markets jump to 7400 on Counting day as Asia tanks

Global markets tanked probably because of the strong showing by Japan in Quarterly GDP as Japanese bonds strengthened and the strengthening currency started a cascade conveniently allowing US markets to reatct negatively to good news in Asia ( highly reductive and downbeat prognosis)

However, markets will equally take to Indian news positively when Europe and US open later as India starts the call auction markets with the expected 100 point jump to the open. Apparently nearly 10- stocks can already be expected to reach 10% , 15% and 20% circuit breaker limits in the morning.

NDA’s strong showing in the polls means the political stability mandate can well start a lasting bull market for the next 10 years in this part of the world. The Euro’s woes add on to chances of a global rally from this point as Corporates outperform the French GDP and take due credit for the survival of the Western paradigm.

Banks and Power NBFCs will likely lead the growth with Reliance and SBI joining ICICI Bank, Yes Bank and others in the rumination on results all day and most attention will remain focussed on leads and what outgoing and incoming members of the lower house have to say on the new government and the mandate from the people.

The Nifty will definitely see a 7350 mark during the day as F&O ranges have moved to 8000 on the higher end and salutory OTM hedges have also reached 6000 on the lower end, the 6000 puts getting expensive at above 50 in anticipation of additional hedges required by new longer term inflows into the markets.

Arun Jaitley as Finance Minister is likely to be a positive for the markets for now and the man is likely to keep his mouth shut for the period of government formation so ther markets have definitely set 7100 as base for the rally. ICICI Bank is the easiest pick after Bajaj Auto results for Q4 were indeed tepid and cyclicals for us now restricted further to the earlier mentioned Bharti and ITC.

PSUs and L&T will be the fodder pick for fattening the markets and will not face any resistance in up moves ( HT Ashwini G. / ET Now)

The currency has moved below 59 after a long time and may see stronger trades though Fixed Income markets will likely not trade heavily this entire period of government formation for at least a week to ten days as institutional investors do not require daily trades and retail investors are unlikely to come in without deeper markets being available.

CDS spreads if traded should hope to touch record lows nearer 110 basis points on the turnaround taking hold.

Oil prices may offer a risk trade that will toughen up the ask for the incoming government and rating agencies / fund managers are unlikely to change opinions in a hurry.

India Morning Report: 6859..6900..7000..Markets celebrate the Democratic ritual

F&O bets have moved on to sold 6900 Puts along with a bigger stable midpoint at the 6800 puts, with calls making the market top range at 7500 no longer looking really out of the money as they were probably intended without any euphoria in sight yet, making it possible the rally will , cautiously from here, last the four days till counting, when internecine bets made by punters translate into hostile volatility on Saturday if there is a special session indeed.

Some such confused plays not backed by fundamentals, now exclude PSE banks as the better ones like PNB are clear to watch for and back along with Canara Bank, but include plays on Maruti which posted its lowest monthly sales in April, much below even subdued analyst expectations. IN PSU Banks Central Bank and United Bank  definitely remain the worst of the worst and thus rerating of the index components will continue in favor of Private sector banks led by Yes Bank which may be near a laybye soon at 460 levels or below 500 before the next surge as big caps HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank (lower but improving spreads) come out after some long months of rumination on their price charts range bound till now at 700 and 1300 respectively. Axis Bank and BOB cannot be ignored and the weakness of the bull candle will be underlined by excessive moves in such good but unproven stocks with their results far behind other banks.

Results from Torrent on Cymbalta Sales and a better guidance just about stayed abreast with competitive results from Glenmark, still paying dearly for a local acquisition gone wrong. PSE banks cemented the feeling of punters holding back, that the worst is over as they focussed on Modi coming in and making a new stable government. The Rupee will likely repeat its Friday moves below 60 except that the CPI and IIP data due today are largely expected to be above 8% and negative growth in poroduction respectively esp after IIP’s earlier year series was revised upward by 7-8%. Yields are likely to continue tracking down from 8.75% already down perceptibly without any recovery showing in the macro data series except the usual jump in utilities (electricity) and the dulling of food and fuel inflation

This move however cannot be confused as a rally as most market volumes stabilised in late April itself and there is no reason for investors and traders to add or book early profits before the counting gets underway. The chances of a profit booking, I would reassert have not increased in this move, helped by the fact that it happened on a weekend close, allowing operators who have dug in their heels to last the week with the bull trade.

The Sensex is ready to move up from newly gained 23000 levels while Shanghai in the meantime is at barelly 2018 levels after morning trades even as Japan’s subdued trade data is more supportive of Japanese moves to get into a domestic market growth phase led by the depreciation of the currency with long term yields at 0.6%

Power NBFCs led by REC are seeing good accumulation of interest, likely to show up as a big bull move if the rally sustains after the anouncement of results, wence Infra stocks like IDFC should also be back with a bang and the fundamental dozen we identified earlier will take over from speculative heavies fueling this comeback push that will underline the new baseline for Indian markets

USL and Sun Pharma continue to trade deal news and more may be around the corner as USL celebrates an Empreador deal for the not so successful Whyte & Mackay acquisition. Bharti and ITC are at tempting levels. The call auction (preopen) markets have opened with the Rupee under 60 despite the impending Economic data as the move is apparently finally ready to disregard opaque clues as most CPI and IIP pronouncements have turned out in the last 5 years.

India however is finally in the eyes of global media again and this promise to NDA to rule for ten years (likely) is going to be a good period for India to finally catch up with the Infra and the business growth that has made it look puny to China which digs in its heels to get into a domestic consumption mode and rural growth , parameters on which we are qualitatively ahead of the big brother ( though we will never catch up in real or PPP terms to China per se)

6859..6900..7000..Markets celebrate the Democratic ritual (the hidden trader’s mind)

What ensues today is a Modern day India ritual, involving corrupt politicians and a lot of cash exchanging hands, to be sure. However, the Morning report celebrates the stock markets, that have indeed achieved good strength in the final rushes as the Public Sector Banks join the big thrust on Monday. Even Andhra Bank was not so bad as last quarter and comes with a promise of a good new quarter till June.

In front of everything, however close, is the fact that banks will lead this rally continuing froma record breaking friday which would put most analysts on caution for a coming fall, equally steep, but the fear is a bit mislaid this time as the roller coaster climbs up the sharp wall of stifled expectations , with the markets, for whatever political reason, laying in wait since 2004 for the time to breakout on continued new baselining of earnings by more than double digits year on year, disregarding a long period of slow growth

Banks will improve further building on the big gains on Friday led by PNB and ICICI Bank.  Also, the networks , to be fair to them, seem to have the handle on the market today – SS got it exactly on tv18 as more than one analyst nodded to banks across networks and lets face it even traders and fundamental investors were horrendously shocked when the index spike happened on Friday afternoon. However, the markets are not wating for a 300 tally for Modi nor will they wait for that mark next week to resume a rally as long as the government formation process is quick and painless. Banknifty will likely move to 14300 levels early before a small sanity check comes in. One does not expect this market to break thru lower than 6700 levels unless NDA performs poorly in the 200-220 seat range

India Morning Report: Love in the times of cholera for Airtel, India

Airtel rode the Data market jump as revenues for data doubled as for Idea in mobile data (94% and 110% respectively) allowing Bharti Airtel to showcase once again that ist is the best business and the best business group to run for India and in India. Of course, firming up of prices is a mixed blessing for consumers but the explosion of the data pie esp in mobile data augurs well for companies in this otherwise mature market just waiting for a whiff of good natured mojo for the overall economy to blast off.

Modi’s government is not yet in through the door, his ominous cries for Dil maange more in dissonance with the campaign for mostly informed voters going to the polls in phases 7 and with exactly 16 days to go. However, it is unlikely that the polls will herald any other government in India than a full fledged Modi government that will last 60 months and most of the reforms will not be rolled back abruptly or at least most investors do believe that and look for reassurances for the same.

Markets finally break a 2 day losing streak and return to green making Nifty 6800 an iron clad resistance and support thereafter for the India markets re-rating currently. Merck reports in India tonight and the results will underline why Indian traders should not go for stocks like Alstom and Astrazeneca on global headlines that do not impact the listed business, so often mistaken as pull for the global corps in question. ING Vysya’s results reported yesterday again showed some weakness and have to be inspected for renewed commitment required from their parent in Netherlandas spreads /jaws contract for the Indian sub and the Income growth does show a better traction in new loans

Ashwini and other network commentators have again been baited/baiting shorts after markets almost flattened out at 6720 , some of the confusion spreading over from a long earnings and election season but the selection of midcaps again shows the limited interest in the markets on the long side except for returning to 6800, staying positive on good earnings ( there are no real bad earnings reports coming, bu t that is not being factored early by the markets) and standing waters are unlikely to make enough trading capital queasy to force a down tick in the markets making 6650 probably a safe bottom and sold puts will continue at 6700 levels from Traders and investors alike waiting out the final tally.

I am busy packing my bags in Bangalore and tying up loose ends as I get ready to join campus for a Ph D at Lucknow / Trichy ( thanks for being around)

Infrastructure spend and IPL like sports franchises remain Indias most potent steps as they await an empowered government

India Morning Report: Will 6800 mark a heartbreak for the rally?

The markets are evenly poised again after a quick Monday morning move to 6800. Indices like the Banknifty however went thru a minor break in the week past and recovered only on Friday to 12850. SBI for example is the key to many hidden not so good fundamentals stories the markets wanted to slide past older marks in a no holds barred rally and will likely continue to cede marks even as Bajaj Auto remains positive during earnings month and joins bets like Bharti Airtel and LIC Housing ( upgraded on date by Nomura) to keep the positive momentum of the markets even a san extended wait to counting day keeps investors on edge. China is back in the Investors rangefinders as they look to snipe gains backed by the new stimulus engaged by China. India remains second to Taiwan in FII inflow charts and investors are already on hold with hot money purveyors and lower quality FII relationships proving key as Participatory notes become the order of the day again.

Power NBFCs look like having crossed major hurdles on price charts with REC ahead at 250 and LIC Housing seems to be looking a t good earnings again. The Good earnings stories will slowly crowd out the market favorites again this week and markets will likely use the time to exit bad stories like SBI that are unlikely to make a comeback or IT and Pharma as they top out with the Rupee stabilizing at 60 levels again, without threat. It is good to see the Domestic Institution turn buyers before the FIIs leave and it is also good to see a burst in market volatility that seems to have favored positive moves in the market overall in the last two weeks in what would be a unique advantage for India markets

Reliance seems to have been at the wrong end of the new deal again as Investors hope for a back braking laden quarter from the old bellwether as investors remain hocked and look to make up for interest payouts from the stock move, leaving it actually stranded at 860 levels(result day, 960 on Friday) as it reported moves in its INR 330 Bln Telecom and the INR 150 Bln retail investments. ITC on the other hand could join YES Bank and IDFC again in moving up positively throughout the week even as HDFC’s Foreign status hits HDFC Bank’s move to increase FII Limits and IDFC goes about setting up the NOHFC/New Bank structure and pares FII holding to 49% at 120 levels on the stock.

HDFC Bank is up for rerating of its weight in the MSCI index from 5.78% in May by two thirds based on the Free float calculation for the FIF factor. HDFC remains FII owned to 73%

The Global deals seem to be more than clouding the markets again even as the Diageo offer for INR 120 Bln for United Spirits makes the USL investors good with a 10% rise on open. A similar move in AstraZeneca in the call auction looked a trifle premature unless markets know of any more firm moves by the global parent for the Indian listing. Pfizer bid a $102 Bln for AstraZeneca and that would be a wrong story to back in the markets given the tangential impact on Emerging market and India plans from the deal. A good market practice would be to be a little more circumspect about blue sky deals and announcements in the global markets, like the Hero move to invest in Latam which is likely to be cash negative for time to come and the way we have subjected Bharti Airtel to strict checks and balances thru its buys in Africa four years ago.

Tata Global looks unlikely to score again as it flirts with old 155 levels barely out of the zone at 158 and SBI seems to have recovered investor faith till news of a bad result push them away for a brief time at 2050 levels

India’s Forex Billions (Reserves) hit a new $309 Bln high on Friday.

India Morning Report: Markets jiggy jiggy with the promise of a new government

Investors are in sync with the BJP pandering interests looking at the ‘younger’ Modi lef new government for lasting game for India Inc. The Pharma index is down and banks have yet added a measly 300 points on the Bank nifty led by ICICIBANK, HDFCBANK and AXISBANK but mostly the nbfc / Financials as muthoot and manappuram lead with Bajaj, IDFC and LIC Housing Finance for the less than half dozen licenses to be issued. F&O bets will likely reward unidirectional risks with sold puts continuing to lock the market sentiment after a week
of rest at 6500.

Today’s morning session would have seen the most spectacular volumes at the best premiums before the 6500 strike wound out to lower risks and continues to interest incoming bulls.

India Morning Report: Did investors buy into the Rupee last week, and the Suntory deal

Friday’s  closing rushes on the Rupee trade could be just another chimera as the China miasma refuses to scare foreing investors from China and other shallow EMs renamed MINTs. China also reported an improved Services PMI implying the trade situation could improve for it and its partners including Aussie, USA and India. However, things overall continue to look bleak for global growth as dependent on legs of growth in China and Europe.

Europe has been importing more, however, esp as Germany probably focusees on its own consumption for a small break after a Target imposed halcyon end to 2013. Rates are likely unchanged in Central Bank announcements and Global liquidity reprieve trades, may be ephemeral at best as Yellen returns to post snow recovery prognostications to hopefully continue along the same taper gradient $10 Bln in each policy date.

However, not to be confused by the Global Economy’s internecine interactive brusqueness, the India trade remains a leader for the Global benign trend continuing in Equities and HY debt this year and is likely to turn in better performances on the bourses than any other.

The 4.7% GDP score was not so bad except that it included at its best form, not more than 6% contribution from Services. As expected, Agriculture did not continue an extended rebound from Q2 and thus contributed to an overall disappointment for policy watchers with Governor RGR still on the edge of another couple of rate hikes and CPI close to plateauing out at a high 8% itself

Radico Khaitan is one of the bigger winners as the Equity trade in India opens to new bull scenarios, we choosing to watch after every 100 points as traders fill up the gaps and bears might give up most of their extraordinary gains in the following 6 monthsas they take each plateau of waiting for more investors as an inordinate sign of weakness or overconfidence having nbrought the hcicken count home to roost

Volatility remains at an extended low and the PCR below 1, implies one should batten down the hatches as most price levels on your choice investments would carry very little risk on sold puts . SBI and Maruti also proffer extraordinary choice to traders that need financing and are not selling puts ans positional shorts in both continue to dig for lost Mayan Gold, making it at least a year or 1200 levels before they exit with profittaking trades.

JP Associates may be out of the index but is a great plus trade ( opnly post redenomination of the Nifty) while Adani Enterpricses catches supplementary caucus support from the Adani Port bull trade. GAIL may still not make it to mainstrem positional trades or transition into a defensive but we reccommend buying the stock with IDFC and YES, while ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank individually will carry the Banknifty, PSU shorts making the Index tradea patchy non performing long

Foreign buyers saw $2.2 Bln in gross trading on the NSE itself on Friday. The return of bank investors and trading rooms including StanChart and HSBC to the bull trade on the Rupee, counld confirm secular up trades in Asia even as China gets ready for a currency depreciation battle. However, first order of business would be to observe if equities can keep up with the smaller selling that remains part of the trade in the first half of the week as markets start the series at fresh new highs of 6277.

The Sun Pharma and Hindalco trades should catch fire by the middle of the week in that scenario as mainline picks remain good for the goo but new buyers may not get them at better levels . Bharti , ITC and Bajaj Auto continue to hold strength in the consumer investments story and Services PMI returnign tot he green likely for 2014 means aviation, trade and tourism could critically support the good guys from here. The LIC and ONGC/OIL buys for BHEL and IOC are confirmed but sectoral trades aer non existent on either side. Pharma’s big week returning to substitute IT is the one certainty and not an immediate bulltrade so more consolidation is likely this wek esp if the Pharma trade does not kick in. The inevitable short trade on Hero as it yields ground to a bad February sales data will only land blows till 1850 levels as the news f the recovery should kick in the sector after new excise reduction and recovery in buying from March

India Morning Report: Markets will be hanging on to 6150

India now holds the key to Equity success in 2014 as Global Equities return to select Emerging markets. Within Emerging Markets, specific stock selection remains key as Mexico joins the global pain story in a low 0.7% reported Q4 GDP ( on year) even as Singapore returns to secular growth after a cramped couple of quarters to a 6.1% QoQ growth.

At this muddling top of 6150 in the markets, most bears eagerly await the early downfall that has been scoring the most points even after emerging market flows turned positive on 6 weeks of battering by outflows. However, negative news has all but gone, the last home sales reports of snow driven year on year contraction.

Bharti is likely trying for 275-280 levels now having scored out on 290 levels and State Bank will remain the most likely start if markets indeed plunge, the short in State Bank juicy even as a positional trade at 1500, more than 220 in profits available to the fag end, as other members in the Banknifty continue to stretch themselves to carry the weight.

Adani Power and Adani ports both seem to be investment driven trades and all the infra stocks would agree to Adani’s leadership on this trend score as others remain leverage beaten in the case of JP, GMR and RelInfra or promoter margin beaten in the case of other midcaps. For whatever reason, Adani’s free float is not under threat and the trade remains good and is a great move to lighten the righteous pressure gaining steam on the aforesaid.

ITC, Bharti and the Private Banks ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and YES rremains trades on the upside while Kotak and Axis probably remain shorts when the markets start back from 6000 or if after the Call Auction (Pre Open) they remain above 6080-6100-6150 levels.

The Maruti focus seems to be on removing the potential for shorts in the market, showing not many are indulging the bull side either on the H2 win also struggling with falling share in the mostly unlisted Auto – 4 wheelers market

The Rupee however precludes any move long of short as the G20 seemed to fizzle out in distant Australia, Aussies straddling the unfortunate situation of being neither a real G20 force nor EM of DM categories with China continuing a slow plod. The Yen Steamer announced last week is likely to kick into currencies this week as trades look to taking the Yen back from 102 – 108 levels the Euro and Pound standing on near new highs. Corporates have still not started the rush for ECB borrowing, the good ones also holding cash to start off investments, and yields ion the Indian Ten year remain at 8.8% on the 2022 bond and 9% on the 2021 bond.

Bajaj Auto will be leading the bulls with ITC and Cipla retaining both defensives and new longs. One can also see the coming rerating of IT stocks as IT forecasts get rationalised and corrected for over optimism at the turn of the year. I am also keeping longs in Power NBFCs without Powergrid and PNB. Infy and Wipro have now comprehensively been voted out of the Top two in IT as Cognisant resumes representing the entire sector for Global , US centric investors and Outsourcing itself falls down the rungs of the Alltime Top 100 ideas in its second rejuvenation.

Markets have started on another cycle of bash arounds on quickrumors even as Indian markets hit rock bottom at 13-14 levels on volatility, lending the shorting wins nary impossible from here. Markets seem to be again , ilike the NaMo episode, seem to be prescribing and proscribing specific measures to deleverage , options that are likely not even on the table for the listed Bharti, RCom  and Idea as the unlisted premium Vodafone and the newbie Jio create ripples. Aircel deal might be a newsmaker there sooner than one expected.

I am impressed by Aptart’s F&O recommendations that expiry will be around 6150 levels, couting to me and at least some others as a brave call and naked put sales are safer than straddling or strangling anything for this week esp given local market premiums. Of course sold puts have to be near 6050 levels and thats hardly any good profits either but you can skew that position with a larger than normal exposure. to fund your value equity purchases now.

India Morning Report: Vote on Account does not offer anything by definition

Not to be dismissive of other efforts to research quantised discernible notes in the market, we have beaten others hands down with the preciseness of each sentence seemingly in a complicated human language. And we are not artificial intelligence, just something more  populations can understand. However, that is all a predilection of becoming  part of a deluge unless we can remember the basics. Like 6100 yesterday, 6050 today and stuck at 6250 again. Or for the currency it is an even simpler, 62.50 and broken till 63.00 now returning to break 62 on the upside, waiting to break till 61 to start a trading move in that dead market Foreign investors pass by with just a tenth of the allocation to the China which would be enough impetus for investment I guess.  That is adding the currency noted going out of circulation bringing in additional thicker statistics streams of returning investments instead of churned velocity without disposition, which remains the only unexplained flow for many developed and EMs. Meanwhile India posted a latest velocity of another 12.5% and growth of 4.9% kept WPI ticking under at 5.5% , inflation at 8.8% (and still high to merit 8% rates for the RBI policy (India’s Central Bank)

Now to get thru the market open again, HCL Tech is done, L&T is not coming back so soon, having clarified there si no better financials in the old heavy pipeline they keep carrying in New Orders. However, the note of caution from Kotak does not translate into a correction in the markets, as it is a known flaw, using subsidy deferral on the way to an improved performance and as we have always maintained to PC’s weaker arm, its not anything to forget to talk of.

Banknifty is at 10,250 but their seems to be a dearth of substitution for older SBI folios, because SBI has to go down to 1250 levels ( broader guess) bottoming out near 1280 ( our estimate – not to be confused with the statistical mark of MLE). HDFC Bank is up and out of 640 levels but no 645 it is..Pharma should not have been a defensive trade, esp as Bharti and ITC remain powered on apart from the IT scrips which can keep current levels once HCLT returns to 1400 levels. I have faith in ICICI Bank surprising in the post speech trade if India’s Financials are surmised as feasible, though it is just necessary expenditure for the six month period going forward and the Macro economic review has already been celebrated. A smaller gross borrowing figure for instance , may not be possible as that may be the only accommodating flag for the noise of governance to come. Also it would be a shame in my mostly moderate opinion otherwise, ( cooked to become the mainstream o-pin-onion like other examples of better business leaders than the half cooked Modis and Rahuls of today) if PSU banks join in the rally just for their survival has been noted by additional Capital for FY15 in this month again confirmed in any allocations. YES Bank and IDFC remain mainline (first leads) not for this bull segment but for the secular bull cycle that remains.

Nifty i s actually having a hard time at 6080 and will not drift down but 6100 is the new bear dominance levels, mostly because the media presence as Citi explains ( in that elusive to understand bid for retail investors here) requires reusing old hat ( from this trend) and the market tone is still as 6250 the normal would have been but that is a likely illusion in the distance, with markets using the distance again and again to tone down , letting shorts bound them up and show the futility of expectiung an overnight renaissance in the Indian Fixed income Markets. StanChart in the meantime has sell side macro posting the VoA precursor on ET Now since AM, looking at Government freeze to show the numbers.

I’ll leave that unedited para  in, just because I have things to do before I come back to edit it. It is just a Morning report. I may not be writing in the vote on Account speech or the dictum,

The markets may not break down, mercifully, for lack of reason to celebrate, a not new feature of beating down equities at their own, esp cognisant to those who bank promoters accounts and promoters’ who play their equity to death in a monetary degrowth, which now runs an extended life with a defined taper even with a reduced nozzle draining out the dumped in steroids, in the recognizance that US was critical and that most of excess liquidity remains excess. I wonder if one coming from my free markets background can make enough morbid adjustments, but one knows one must to explain how taking care of the trifecta is not done by just that phase of liquidity and now by the withdrawal of the same. One does note also the 16 mln unemployed uncounted in US estimates when declaring a successful 6.5% unemployment statistic from the same.

I like Crompton Greaves for the capex trade, old Mid Cap plays will be sideline for the 2010 IPO brigade in most cases. The fisc will score the most points when it reports a positive surprise. The FM should not aim for FY 2015 without thinking up options and should look to a fat target as we have probably over reached in the current fiscal itself. I would even let him off at a 4.5% target and that will not get BJP any further advantage.

Post Vote On Account satisfaction, Congress is going to be a quick disappearing loser in the elections, BJP winning it however would be disturbing not to India’s soul, cause there was not any in the conventional modern world definition of it, but it is can only be a rude awakening to India in a few years, however growth will churn in any government, because of the strong basis on which we stand up and shout for more, and the bureaucracy , the technocrats ( non outsourcing) and Private investors / Business will remain the agents of  this growth. Bank lending will never be a constraint and there is no wishing away corruption. One can even learn the vast cycles of it in local, regional and International Sales processes, and is not a equivocal nodding to suffering , nor a socialistic bite of suffrage that will make it the topic at the corporate dinner buffet.

explains: in the middle above is used as colloq/sms for explanations

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