The 2:30 PM pre closing update August 06-10, 2012 – Jet Airways, Euro, Pound, Reliance and Healthcare



Monday pre closing looks dyed steeply in the after effects of a turnaround in Dollar fortunes from tokyo close to London open and the equities are just about holding their opening tricks. The Rupee will likely fall through to 56 all over again, but the Pound Sterling may have better luck in keeping Britain competitive as its data is weaker and the strength in the Euro has been cut short so look for the Pound to let the Dollar a good lead and indian stocks to continue rerating on results. Wockhardt and Divis Labs were eyeopeners , likely moving the move from CIPLA and DR Reddy and SAIL(EBITDA of 13%)  and Britannia not so good. Reliance is hoping for better GRMs in Q2

KOTAK and HDFCBANK brought up the cream of the post morning rise in a surprise move in the last few minutes, HDFCBANK hitting 600.

English: JAI210 arrives SFO Jet Airways – Boei...
English: JAI210 arrives SFO Jet Airways – Boeing 777-300 ER (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

PE transactions have increased volume of resales as these secondary transactions could create additional liquidity of upto $100 B in the Indian deal market allowing PE firms to update valuations based on market price and look for a better profit than ina long drawn out listing Airports and Aviation scrips are getting rerated again, at least I think both should even as BAML tries to jump Jet Airways and Spicejet on the Sales and Lease Back profits. Jet profits of INR113 mln include INR500 mln in sale and lease back and apparently some defered tax credits. Jet Airways revenues are up only 5% in Dollar terms to $847 M (INR471.2B) but have a clear line to add to International Star Alliance for code share push to profits and has a seat factor of 82.7% in Q1  FX losses of $31mln could not erase Net profits either.  ATF prices actually rose 13% over Q1 FY12 International operations have made a minor pretax loss of 2-300 mln

Annual revenue of the quarter is up 31% still under $1 B ( lower by $52 mln) but EBITDA MArgin has doubled to 16% on Konnect rollout and ATF decreases will roll further in Q2 . Jet lite yields are up 43% on the year ago Q1. Passenger growth of 10% domestic Y/Y ith 4.86 mln revenue passengers flying an average of 1749 Revenue kilometers

Ofcourse some bank results did spoil the day in Andhra and dhanalakshmi but nothing out of the ordinary and ING, indusind and Kotak look well slotted for the froth of this run, if there is any while YESBANK and ICICIBANK lead wwith HDFCBANK consolidating another big move

Resturctured Assets bought into equity by majority foreign owned banks like ICICI BANK and HDFC BANK will not count to FDI and will be allowed while new subsidiary stakes (strategic investments ) willnot be allowed beyond the FDI cap in the secotr as Indirect FDI

100% FDI is allowed in Commodity Broking however. In new regulations, Insurance Cos have been allowed to purchase and sell CDS contracts as part of hedging portfolios





The retail lifestyle champions: Jet Airways saves face , buys new Boeings

Jet’s Q3 losses came at a low INR 1 bln as it saved up from asset sales of INR 1.7 bln and kep itself in operating profits. The jet order for 17 boeings will also help india’s Capital goods indices this month

Jet Airways ordered 737-400s and 500s for its fleet, probably exchanging out older Jet lite planes though it was its fourth straight loss since September /December 2010 conditions worsened in fuel cost overheads, wiping out gains from Jet Konect saving plans and this being their first of many sale and lease backs adopted by the Industry at Indigo and Jet Airways

On sales of INR 3437 Crs in December 2010, the airline flew 13% higher year on year and expects to keep growing sales if hikes are passed by AAAI and if no further costs imposed by DGCA action, the airline will keep posting cash profits

According to mint, CAPA revealed a loss of $30 per passenger in domestic flights in India. Kingfisher and Spicejet may not be able to hold their bottomlines to a sane number as they allow losses to reflect their financial uncertainty, demanding policy action/handouts

Godrej Properties purchase of INR 1.06 bln from the BKC premises and FX gains of INR 1.76 bln also stopped out losses but the airline bucked expectations of INR 3.5 bln in losses

  • Sale and Lease back allows it to keep Debt constant and it cana lso start paying the INR 14 0 bln debt from the SLB proceeds. The 17 aircraft are on options thus guaranteed at a good price.

How to make money in Lifestyle businesses!!

Coracias benghalensis English: An Indian Rolle...
Image via Wikipedia

Both Automobiles and viation industry are strongly hit by the current banking slowdown but more so because of energy and fuel costs as well as staffing costs making profits unlikely for the latter.

Both industries, however , remain the bright spot in India’s fabric of the future, leading growth segments in production and services. The car industry makes money in this unlikely scernario by passing on price hikes , with concurrent big doscounts of upto 10% while airlines wherre discounts ar part and parcel of all ticketing platforms till the d ay of travel, money ois also made in the usual charter/laundry list of udealised safety requirements as the DGCA report.

While Jet’s not running one third of its flights after announcing them because of poor occupancy, Indigo is reusing entire engines and forced to announce “premature engine removals” to keep its aircarft flight worthy. KFA reuses spares from grounded aircraft while it is avoiding paying salaries, both practices likely last

Departing on a test flight
Image via Wikipedia

resorts in a bind they only are responsible for. Spicejet int he meantime is yet to print or operationalise Flight operation manuals and thus does not spend much on quality assurance currently.

I’ll give you a dime, if you find this chaos live during your business/ personal last rush/ economy flight except if you have paid large diiscounts on your ticket (then also, only for certain personalities) It is mostly int he service, f course both industries spending on talent and retention in various ways

English: Logo of IndiGo Airlines.
Image via Wikipedia

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