Given Pfizer and US Authorities continuing crackdown on drugs from India ( Pfizers fake drugs lab featured Ranbaxy on Bloomberg yesterday, 100M users (see ET) did not vote for Ranbaxy and founder Dilip Sangvi definitely has an uphill task trying to convert his $4 B revenue acquisition of Ranbaxy into a paying deal. The price even at Rs 447 was probably a face saver for Indian Phartma as Indian pharma contitnues the quest for bigger stories in the $200 mln – $500 mln molecule categories and even more and the US generics story also relies on academia to cut the costs of innovationand drug delievry with and without Obamacare.
As of now however, prices of Sun Pharma continue their rally as Ranbaxy finally stabilises at 447 (offer price) and markets look to complete their pre poll rally with benefactor Modi piping up some hot Indian curry to Foreign investors around the world. Recovery in consumption is not converting to better Auto sales apparently and poll time spend also seems to be down witht he fortunes of the Congress known well in advance.
In Financial Services and Banks, the IDFC story has multiple positives even as the markets nurse a big bruised ego from RGR’s matter of fact disposition of other applications and the Infra Financing story for India inc seems to be back on track, the Indian welfare state a survivor of other political questions as BJP promises to bring back rural employment and education schemes.
Stories like Bharti and ITC are unlikely to lose because of the changes in Political fortunes while the Pharma and It story probably come under the scanner being at market peaks and the Rupee responding in the NDF market to more than inspired business inflows and remittances from labour abroad.
The movements in JP Power., JSW Power (Nasik and Maha areas arnd Jabalpur?) and obviously Adani Power ( Amit Shah connection) are interesting and likely to be back int he limelight as news on the business channels remains on target for a big 7000 breakout and is safe for a 6800 score by far, markets continuing to test the levels after each 100 odd points of rise, studying the ramifications and choosing a select dozen every 100 pointswith shorts back in Kotak and Hero Motors. BHEL and SAIL seem to continue to be short favorites and their fortunes and that of IDBI Bank are unlikely to be affected by market direction now.
The best derivatives strategy remains to sell puts at this point for probably 6500 levels on the safe side, markets likely to signall enough if the breach below 6450 levels in 2014. Buying risk may seem tobe in, but new investors are likely to be priced out by the constant rain checks and risk buyers from early 2014 will continue to be rewarded till end 2014 if they stick around.
JP Associates is unlikely to move upop from 56 historically a support for the stock as it continues its tortuous strategy of deleveraging its listed stock
Bank credit growth remains steady at 12-13% and deposit growth continues to outpace, leaving the changing GDP target forlorn at new higher levels and the GDP performance for 2014 and Q1 2015 unlikely to hit above 5%
Market highs around 7000 levels are however already justified by continued double digit earnings growth by top performers.
Asian Markets are closed today and lack of Foreign investor interest on Monday Morning leaves an India open totally listless at 6100 levels and falling again, struggling after a brief respite at 6050 last week. IDFC results were inconsequential along expected lines with no fresh disbursements in this financial year but the stock has only upside left at 93 levels where it closed last week post results as it remains the only empowered player not dependent on infra approvals and a fresh book of loans in the pipe likely. Loans continued to make a better ratio of all NII at the Bank as spreads showed up resilient despite a bad interest rate environment in the nine month period reported. Retail interest aside, the stock will remain on Institutional buy lists for time to come. It’s large provisions also make it a great equity investment with the Provisions unlikely to be called and can always be reduced prudently. Non interest income remains slave to PE principal and proprietary trading business
The Rupee starts the weak on such rumors where the deciding NDF market actually feeding on the panic mindset in low trading volumes and the onshore markets trade down but only for the morning after as the Superbowl even that draws a 200 mln audience in the US and around the world has ended minutes ago and investors will be back to a market fairly under priced by the recent pitai (hustle-bustle/buffeting not to be confused with the sage of Omaha’s investing interest) Bank Rate will remain higher for the majority of 2014 , the prospect of rate cuts being pushed back and there being no prospects of improved transmission of monetary policy with yields pushing for higher dollar depreciation despite the RBI efforts to clamp liquidity which has time and again proved more amenable to intuitive policy than a counter intuitive rate hike move to tackle measures outside Central Bank policy. However corporates borrowing in ECB might actually be able to break the ice in terms of getting older level low rates and break the impasse eventually with increased investments (starting to flow in consumption sectors) and RBI , maintaining a new inflation hawk stance would likely have to hike rats further after the 200 Marginal channel cation and announce a veritable change in stance on rates first.
REC had started up Friday and Powergrid should join in after mi d-day if the sentiment indeed looks up. The Equity rally in the Global Markets hit a big snag in January and that is holding markets back awaiting a confirmation of investor interest with FDI having exited Emerging markets like Turkey, Mexico, Argentina and Indonesia in a hurry with Turkey coming in midweek last to raise rates by 4% to near 12%. Goldman Sachs is in trouble again having started their own EM investments in losses having chosen MINT’s obfuscated markets and a deep and dead in the water China over India’s liquidity given the cross winds. The Rand(South Africa) also closed above 11 to the Dollar for the first time in January.
However Emerging markets sentiment is likely to get into it in a couple of quarters from here and India will remain one of the best performing destinations having been unaffected in the post taper trade in January if it maintains 6100 levels or at least stays above 6000 levels
PNB scored great results having come in counter cyclically on raising provisions in a known strategy and NPAs under control in a rapidly deteriorating market sentiment for Banks shoring up investors to its ferry/rafters and trades 10% higher at 550 levels still a strong buy. Banknifty starts the week near a low at 10150 and is good for the trade up but one should be watchful with ugly quotes (in both the 10000 and 10500 series) in the bid auction market still holding an initiating trader to ransom with option writers playing ultra safe.
IT stocks are still overbought and Infy should retrace 3600 levels and even TCS should come down to realistic levels (but already at 2200 levels) as the IT/Outsourcing axis is not coming out as the GDP’s saviour this time either. Volatility levels are hardly material at 16 in the current rally agains 14 in the previous segment in December ’13
Energy stocks should start the climb back as and when markets stabilise, GAIL having started the year smartly. Glenmark and Cipla/Lupin lead the Pharma rally that continues despite an ugly breakdown in Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma. We still do not believe in a robust Arvind Ltd comeback on USPA and other new limited franchises inroduced by the team since 2011. Tata Global Beverages remains a hold but the magic is still in 100% go it alone investments in India ( which are still a far cry from the carte blanche leading to exchange rate breakdowns in LatAm and SE Asia in recent EM history) Aurobindo Pharma on results and Lupin on announcements today provide good portolio picks along with Glenmark which has only $500 mln in overseas debt and among companies tapping a continuing generic opportunity in 2014 with a new pipeline
Interest in the IPL in the meantime continues strong esp evincing interest from global players in the playing XI and a fresh re-auction for all the 8 franchises picking up steam soon after the spectrum auction closes. ING and OBC related good Q3 tales as were also employing covering strategies but have not started lending/stopped losing on NPAs. Yes Bank may not fall back to 280 levels and accumulation is advised at current 300 levels. The BOI /BOB story broke down in January itself as we foretold with both banks still addding NPAs in droves. ICICI Bank’s INR 45 Bln ( including INR 30 Bln pie in restructuring) included the bank can survive the pressures with relative ease having also been proactive on definitions than the PSU penchant for playing it by the ear and losing continuously losing investor confidence and investor money as far as its favorite proprietary traders are concerned who lose another constituency in an unplanned bull attack with construction stocks Dlf and unitech still in a free fall after the ill advised run
Energy Markets react positively Midday
Gas stocks reacted positively as Petronet LNG produce became free to sell to industrial users and IGL and other domestic distributors esp IGL getting commitments to cheaper Domestic LNG in the new pricing regime. This also means domestic CNG in all markets including Mumbai where already 100% domestic gas was supplied prices of CNG and PNG were reduced by 30% and 20% while increasing IGL margins. Petronet imports LNG and will no longer be getting custom from IGL which Delhi used upto 33% imported gas
The move was a n expected one with a new Minister coming back (Moily ) in a sensitive election year . Moily is also expected to facilitate large project clearances with changes at th e Ministry of Environment (EPA Act bottlenecks)
GAIL shares the good news as renewed pressures on its subsidy costs will likely subside as it supplies to city gas companies and others at new revised rates and the policy is deemed stable after LPG quotas to residences have increased to 12 cylinders per year and gas TX likely to increase volumes with good results reported Thursday
Your favourite bank did start showing hidden wrinkles as it eagerly snapped up a 26 bp NIM increase to 3.26% this quarter an Net interest income grew in line with the bank’s voracious appetite to INR 38.88 Bln. The retail surge which slowed down to 20% and Deposit growth continues without buyouts of deposits at the industry rate of 14%. That means the retail team is unlikely to prove other results without the earlier snafus with retail processes even as it opened 250 new branches, 150 in the unbanked regions. The chink in the armor is that the bank will smooth over its increasing gross NPAs as the continuing expansion in margins gets the bank to override and lay down the news of a jump in gross and net NPAs. Gross NPAs for a large bank as such are horribly disavowable at 3.23% and Net NPAs are also thrice the rate at equally sized HDFC Bank.
The stresses however may not be l
inked to its growth as one looks askance at the 15% plus ROE. At this moment however I am unable to more than cast a doubt on the Capital Structure for such ROEs and the same however is not to be confused with the global banks which still have a entirely different Order of magnitude of liquidity and derivative profits/risk management. It might still have an audience requesting that they be treated as peers especially on the comments on Capital Structure while structured product profits would still seem unseemly. The results will probably bring the bank under fire from its Indian peers , starting here at the ROE growth which seems awkwardly as always one step ahead o f the coming high interest rate regime when it actually expands margins.
Profits are only up 25% less than the expected INR 24-25 Bln mark at INR 22.54 Bln
The Active CaSA strategy for the bank seems to have worked wonders again with another 1.95 increase quarter on quarter to more than 43%. From here CASA would go on reducing once it reaches 47-49% levels in three-four quarters(at this pace). Average CASA as been reported duly at 39% , ad the gap is showing , which may be a disconcerting note for investors as the surge in retail and commercial deposits continues to bank the margin till rates are hiked.
However to reiterate, The Bank thus now has been completely clean on the paper trail in terms of its profit, asset growth and retail loan growth objectives , also fulfilling its rural objectives , covering the unbanked and continuing to improve its show while the fissures in its wholesale international book and the growth in retail NPAs coming hither will well be masked in the current reporting as well, leaving it another show of increased transparency The bank has however totally dominated its peer HDFC Bank in the banking sweepstakes for the two universal banks heralded in India at the first stage of bank reforms in 1995.
Organic growth component of the bank’s strategy has shaped up well and even the despondent NIMs shaping up into a firm 3% mark this quarter as the bank ramps up on savings and Tier I Capital thru QIPs. The bank’s loan book probably increased Corporate exposure vis-a-vis its Agri book and the Provisions have thence grown by more than twice as required at INR 0.56 Bln but the bank has brought down Gross NPAs to 0.30% of the book and net NPAs even lower.
The bank states in the earnings conference that any rate cuts will accrue to NIMs CASA is nearly 20% growing from 17.3% to 18.3% and NII is well above average even for a mid sized companies at INR 5.63 Bln and Net income at INR 3.42 bln. for a book of a target possibly closer to INR 60 bln for the bank the growth in NIM is probably stating that the bank is about to hit the big league as is obvious from is well-rounded scores in management and corporate responsibility though its early single line focus still makes it an outsider in Corp loan syndicates.
What would your friendly neighbourhood snitch or hag have you see in India’s future now? BPOs recruiting for Voice processes and documentation work or captives claiming they are not BPO for the same work and a hoard of imported foods you buy now but will not afford on a salary six months after.
Unfortunately, our elites continue to get such side issues with India education after being worse than a blind bat and halfway through their work life but one should not lose much sleep over such influences in your life as more and more recruiting shifts out of the magical BPO/IT abyss and returns to active traders, banking sales and i am sure a lot of non business administratives already pulled into quasi business development roles at one man MNCs having finally run their roost.
At least in the shadow banks and the foreign brokers we have been increasing recruiting breadth for the last 5-6 years despite shutdowns at Citi , RBS and UBS. Of course the recruiting profession itself and over the hill 50 something bankers remain unqualified in the new world so the global strategic direction is unlikely to be set anywhere nice soon so be careful what you wish for in a job or you might get performance linked appointments with fancy names and quickerr shutdowns than the Sasketchwan scare in North Canada
ICICI Bank is picking up the slack thankfully on a stronger day at the bourses and more thankful because that means market interest in SBI or PSU banks is increasingly turning merely technical in nature and ?india’s story of future consumption expansion in the hinterland is not making anyone secrete excessively rooting for SBI and the dud dudders from Union Bank to Canara and Syndicate, Dena, BOB and PNB hardly looking like having recovered or improved from their unholy business ethic of the last two decades which they were seemingly not a part of.
Etihad had another finger in India’s aviation pie though the reporting team got busted as a Bombay Tabloid by the last century’s sole network on Indian equities and is actuallya scoop by Mirror ( the city based TOI daily magazine of local specific mantra)
Net Profits have grown to a never before INR 19.60 B or $376.92M for the bank as Net Interest Income climbed to INR 33.71 B or $648.27 M with Treasury income of INR 1.72B helped other income to INR17.91 B all growing at more than 30% over the year ago quarter. Q1 2013 growth was a little subdued in the middle of the near contraction in the Indian Economy on year but still a sequential improvement on March quarter to INR18.15B. The current Q2 2013 is therefore a sequential gain of 7.33% and even with a near 20% rate of growth in credit CAR including Tier II has inched up to less than 19% Deccan Chronicle ‘s INR 5B exposure was added to bad debt taking Net NPas up sharply to 0.78% from 0.71% in Q2
The bank is looking at bringing $1B in NII itself every quarter in less than 2 years and with Fee Income of INR 179 B year to date is likely going to manage a superior profitability with good NIMs on a loan book closing on to INR 3 Tln
The bank added a INR 5 B media industry account as NPA and i s otherwise unperturbed by the current sector massacre from bad loan provisioning PNB also proved results today and was able to grow credit and deposits by more than 17% on year Though public sector PNB has lost grip on profits, its cost of deposits at less than 7% might be a hearty target for a bank such as ICICI Bank not shy of wholesale deposits.
ICICI Bank has met competitive pressures from Private banks to grow its Deposits to INR 2.9 Tln which means total assets are over INR 3.3 Tln earning NIMs of 3% Savings rewards and social banking go a long way in improving its brand with retail depositors. Savings deposits have grown to INR 810B and 70% of that is retail (Chanda Kochar answers in analyst meet) Advances are INR 2.75 Tln, credit growing at 18%, retail at 14% (mortgages 14% and Cars 27%) with International starting regrowing credit portfolio at 6%
Kotak Bank in the meantime has grown CASA to a respectable 27% and YES Bank also ~20% with a 6/7% interest rate peg for retail depositors. NIMs are smaller at the smaller banks like Kotak and YES
Despite slow/soft FX and Derivatives business in the quarter, 23% growth in the Corporate loan book exceeded the industry growth rate of 16% by nearly 50% Including the current Fee income the quoted Net interest Margin is a high 4.2% even as provisions dipped by almost 30% to INR 293.3 Crores or less than INR 3 B
Indusind Bank grew Q2 net to INR 250 Crs or INR 2.5 B at an almost 10% clip over Q1 2013 while HDFC Bank also grew profit sequentially from INR 14.77B to INR 15.6 B at nearly 6% on a much larger base
HDFC Bank has grown Net interest Income almost 10% sequentially from INR 34.8 B to INR 37.3B on the wires while Overall Operational Interest Income has grown to INR85.3 B or 30% on year from INR 67.2B. Year ago net profit was barely INR 12 B in the year ago quarter
Gross NPAs for Q1 FY 2013 increased to 4.99% instead of estimated 4.7% and Net NPAs rose almost 20% to 2.2% from June 2011 in the just announced results the bank increasing provisions. Gross NPAs amount to INR74.9B and Provision Coverage for the Giant despite increasing are still much lower than the competitionand smaller public banks at below 65%
NII is just 111B, 5-8 B less than the street estimate and total provisions this quarter are lower at INR 24.6 B taking the bank to below 1900 in trades after the ires ran the shock up the market spine. Broader markets may survive this loss of confidence in the public sector as the market demands of removal of subsidies as part of deep seated reform also subside without the indices rerating below a 5200 bottom
More details as the bank management releases further details of their private massacre when the street expected that the income and loan related pown rovisioning had been completed by the bank in a surgical action last March and June and profits are expected to increase 128% but will still manage to outgrow a INR 25 B mark satisfying the requirement of a viable net margin with interest spreads under pressure
Deposits have grown to INR 11 T while the bank claims a revised CAR of 13+% as of June 30 while Total Net Income is 14.6B or less than $3 B th no growth in fees advisory and other income
Q4 NPAs were best in class at 1.02% doublling sequentially ( Net NPAs)
Deposits have grown to INR 11 T while the bank claims a revised CAR of 13+% as of June 30 while Total Net Income is 14.6B or less than $3 B th no growth in fees advisory and other income
Q4 NPAs were best in class at 1.02% doublling sequentially ( Net NPAs) Net Margins have infact improved as the bank manages a PAT of INR 37.5 B but we have derated the stock as it has shown an inefficiency in shooting NPAs and continuing pressures in sectors like Aviationa nd textiles apart from the industry wide press ure from Power, infracos and construction & Telcos which private banks have tyurned to their advantage.
ING Vysya remained the only bank to enjoy the margin upgrade from the sloth in the Fixed income markets even though its Amsterdam nerve centre remains otherwise occupied and hardly interested in the Sub continent retail banking pump up.
Net profits are up 38% Deposit growth slower as usual at 15% keeping CASA at 33% Th ebank seems to have eked out a large improvement in expenses , maybe not branch set up but other not sustainable savings and the bank was still able to bump up the provision cover to 90% Net NPAs have halved as it remains interested in select c orporates only Total income is still auniquely tiny INR 514 Crores (527 branches and 446 ATMs )
CDR has grown but gross advances are a total INR240 B, like indusind of the past failing to give confidence on scale or participation
YES is expected to grow NII to around a 28% annual rate Banknifty no available at 10250
It is just a proposal at this juncture but we would be pushing as many good bankers for the provisions on standard assets to be adopted so the NPAs can be taken out of this subset of provisions and expensed off at least. As of now the proposal is still raw in its details requiring banks to keep additionl provisions including for foreign branches which are still leveraged on structured plays for each loan\
Current proposals start off with introducing provisioning on restructured loans specifying that such restructurings should have more skin from the promoters, lessening pressure on banks from the bankrupt promoters and adding a possibility of debt recovery before preference share conversion is forced and then giving it to years before adding specific provisions to that. This is overall a discipline that may be disavoed only by a fe Public sector banks depending on their portfolios
Axis Bank is likely to do exceptionally well in a strong AMJ quarter in which yields moved down and lending business grew handsomely for the right lenders. Axis has also increased operational efficiecies in 2010 and 2011 which have since tapered off. Net Interest Income will see strong yearly growth but may struggle to rise sequentially from the high water table for Q1
The Rupee does not encourage much trade at lower levels seeing spikes on every transaction in the NSE and may have bottomed out at 54.9 for most players being on the long side. However, the global moves and the Asian correction in korean WON and SGD may be followed by the rupee which does represent a large transaaction island of 5% growth and Exports and imports make 1/3rd the GDP now.
Unfortunately the shorts on IT have taken the wind out of the up-move which is strange considering the bulls are still on in Banks, Healthcare and even consumer goods performance though that has a bleak outlook after results season A single MARUTI short from here can test the Sensex 5200 and even 5100 levels after Axis Bank results are sold in instead of jumping further etc.
Banks slide in face of credit deterioration statement pending from rating agencies and international banking waiting on budget not helped by continuing concerns over fiscal discipline post budget, Mean expectation will likely move to a position that without measures Fisc not 5.1% but 6.1%.
Banks hit hard include PSE banks and SBI on NPA concerns.
However trading momentum on downside can help investors get in as banks remain stars in the coming 8% growth binge once the fisc charter adjusts to the new gap , and no inflation overruns helps us crosss the hump in the first 6 months
Esp HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank among the larger banks and mid cap banks post results for Q1 But downtrend may not be stemmed immediately , buy in small quantities.
In another structural repitition of our impregnable GDP growth rate ( at 17% nominal and nearly 8% in a down year) the Fiscal deficit overrun because of expenditure on Oil and Fertiliser subsidies and / or revenue shortfalls from divestment may be compensated by robust tax collections despite protestations to the contrary despite porotestations to the opposite from economist desks affiliated with the media.
We oursellves have found pragmatism necessary in the face of stalling growth but the Indirect Tax collection reports for April – October as well as the Advance Tax collection reports till now have been crossing the required 15% uptick in revenues. This year the small Service Tax tab has already generated INR 500 bln in seven months till October (April-October)
Also, Customs and excise collections have netted INR 820 bln and INR 875 bln well on way to the combined target of INR 4 Tln for the year from indirect taxes, stupefying hawks. That is $16.4 bln customs, $17.5 bln Excise and $10 bln in Service Tax collections till date. Advance Tax collections have to be netted for refunds later near the end of the Fiscal year Collections have grown at a rate of 19% ahead of the ‘optimistic’ target by a few points
the Exports continue to stupefy the hawks too, RBI making it clear that the numbers till now seem to be verified for correctness and India looking at a $300 bln collection but a $160-$180 bln deficit conservatively from the first two quarters of the fiscal year.
I feel like a college kid again ( My alma mater’s reports of PPOs and PPIs are heating the business papers this morning too) as the banking regulator in desh clarifies on Bloomberg that the Banking Regulation Act, voting rights of 15% for promoters and another legislation after that mean that new banks can possibly not make up time and set up shop before 2013. I’d say 2014.
Just what everyone knows already?
And I am sure if I was holding that IB job, that’s what would swing me everyday, that there is 3 years to go before it makes a big bank out of last month’s (August) guidelines and the sparse deal calendar would bother me ony till it bothered my employer. Which it does not.
However what would similarly break in the Bankers’ minds on credit desks would be the sweet realisation that the festive fortnight would not really bump up credit. It is kind of intuitive, As I get busy with really shopping and decorating the home and hearth and corporates basically get too busy computing any bonuses and holidays for their staff.
‘Coz thats the only reason that will fly for Oct. 21 credit figures and deposits to remain the same as Oct 7 highs at INR 40.81 Tln (40.85 Tln) in Loans and Advances and INR 56.19 Tln (56.24 Tln) Deposits, figures in brackets showing the Oct 7 high
Also PM Manmohan Singh’s appointment diary now looks like he is from India (huh!) and not big cousin China who can refuse to bankroll the crisis
Talking of Gamechangers, Cognizant related to its hyper growth with a seemingly 5th quarter ( It should be around 18th or 19th) with a 30% growth, Op Margins nearly 20% and Net Profits growing by 11% yoy despite the ground licking deals on offer. I thought the entire industry was out to do that as Outsourcing, but only Cognizant succeeds everytime. Now with a $1.6bln quarterly turnover, CTS can probably aspire publicly to beating TCS on Topline, Infosys a touch away for the Q4 itself
And you would think HT! will forget talking abt the weekly inflation but we don’t. The morning’s
been too busy and the data released around 12 (IST)
Inflation has crawled on to the wires, but it has surely been burning the midnight oil, growing to Primary articles inflation of 12.08%, non food indices are down to 6.5% which is very encouraging, food from 11.43% to 12.2% (Finance Minister) and fuel at above 14%
Primary Articles seem to be ready for the structural chop as even US reports basic inputs going down by 10-20% in terms of costs (ISM)
Though we have published in depth reports pursuant to the bank’s quarterly announcements earlier, we rather worry we may have the wrong end of the stick given IDBI’s 8% exposure to the Power sector loans and the historically high NPA rate moving from 1.25% to a higher 1.57% this quarter.
Bank increased profits 20% after relief from 70% PCR by RBI and CASA has improved to 19%
CASA is a low 19% with a lack of transformation mandate from the government for the bank. Its Advances are bigger than Axis with a book of INR 1.56 Tln or $31 bln (20% yoy)
NII tracked a stagnant 1122 crs or $224.4 mln and NIM fell 7bp to 2%, Cost of Funds a high 8.40% for its aggressive retail push supporting its higher cost structure model Expansion is already limited but the bank remains attractive to depositors and reach to good credit seekers remains a plus
Investors are fickle. After a $5 mln PAT performance to welcome the new Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri,
SBI has actually grown to $395 mln quarter on quarter in Net Profits. Consolidated Net profits have even grown to more than $625 mln but the earnings report was pushed to the weekend and most reports and Friday trading did not seem to be expecting this much profit, concentrating on the year on year fall from INR 33 bln to INR25 bln this year this quarter. The 46% drop in focus is a misnomer as Pension Liabilities and Loan Loss provisions policy has already been updated in Q4 2011 and with INR7.5 bln in provisions just for pension liabilities to continue till December 2011, the rest is easily expressed by the Loan Loss provisions SBI never made in the earlier years before the accepting of the modified RBI policy in Q4
Of note however is the increase in bad loans, Gross NPAs rising to 3.52% for the bank a full point ahead of ICICI Bank which is also 33% in Assets with SBI holding a book of INR 7.9 tln in advances, a GROWTH OF INR 1.6 TLN or 70% of ICICI Bank’s Advances. A Bloomberg (Bloom’bg) list puts the public sector behemoth at #69 in the World’s biggest lenders and probably in the Top 10 in Corporate Loans gone bad. Since Calendar 2010 SBI has stepped up its rates 11 times, using its NIM cushion to proportionately reward short term deposits in retail and catch up with Money market yields. Industry wide 45 day deposits are 33% lower yielding at near 4% while the MSR in the inter bank market has moved to 9.25%
Industry expected banks to put up more fee income on the table to catch up with revenue losses but SBI stuck to the tried and tested with a 35% jump in revenues to INR390 bln Net Income for the Quarter nearly $10 bln for a single quarter from INR 300 bln in the year ago quarter. Toplines at most banks dropped or grew modestly. RBI has agreed publicly also that the high interest rate scenario engenders a disproportionately higher risk of bad loans but the interest rate hikes have moe to come as commodities have not settled down yet to being down the inflation to a stable rate
Despite the low Tier I core Capital at 7.6%, the bank has not been able to set up a proposal to encourage the GOI to invest upto its mandated 55% in a rights issue or the bank.. Meanwhile the bank is raising International Capital. SBI’s NIM shot up to 3.89% in Domestic Advances and 3.62% overall from a 3.33% Domestic and 3.16% overall in the preceding March quarter ( almost 106 bps above ICICI Bank) Interest Income on Advances in fact grew 36% but investors are likely to be slow to heed the same on Monday as markets continue their xit spiral, Portfolio investment exiting the country as opportunities run out in the widely acknowledged fairly priced/overvalued market in Asia The growth in Advances was a health 18.73% just above the Industry growth rate of 18% while the PLR increases of 185 bps year on year made up for the extraordinary rise. However QOQ incrreases interest Income also up 12% with Advances growing from March by 2.x% NII is up more than 20% sequentially
Staff xpenses remain the most part of Operating expense increases as a Wage revision is charged continually. The counter cyclical provisions esp for contingencies ( black swan events) are another Rs 550 crores or INR 5.5 bln. Advances to Large Corporates stand at INR 1.15 tln for the bank and the Retail book is INR 1.65 tln SME, Agri and International Advances are a Trillion each too. The Banks NII is up to INR 97 bln or $2,5 bln up from INR 81 bln in the March quarter nearly 25% QoQ from $2 bln
The 20% target espoused by Managing Director, Krishna Kumar in Prateek Choudhary’s new regime augurs well for the Indian financial Services majors as a whole. Also new regulations on Foreign banks seem to have set them off again rather than bring a Welcome board to their workplace, means the Indian Duo and public monopoly of SBI will thrive in the coming credit tick.
Q2 onwards should be particulary good for credit growth and this pronouncement probably means aw welcome crowd necxt month as Q1 FY 2012 continues with the other mandated restructuring /apportioned NPL charges and the Minimum Stability fund provisions over the 56% limit not made by the bank earlier.
With its book crossing INR 1 Trillion in 2011, (having stayed asround there since 2006) Citi has restarted the expected growth from Indian Markets scoring an increase of well over 78%. The Bank scored an uptick of 65% to INR 1454 Crs ($363.5 mln) with 35% and 33% increases in Corporate assets and SME assets/ NPLs seem to be getting back in ccontrol for the remaining Citi operaions at 1.2%.
After OP Bhatt left Pratip Chaudhuri has taken no time in utilising the change-over to mark a new baseline for the bank’s further performance measurement as it remains the star of the Indian Big league. With unending discussions on provisions the bank has raised provisions by more than $275 million or INR 1100 crores to INR 33 bln bringing profits toNEAR ZERO for the quarter. A Sales growth of 19.9% in NII shows that Credit growth tapering off will no longer be compensated by low rate marketing and on retail mortgages also all excess provision requirements have been adhered to to be on the policy makers side. The counter cyclical provision has also been created for India’s “TBTF” effort at INR 2320 crores. Operating profits for the quarter were higher at $1.5 bln or INR 6000 crs.
The bank has high Net NPAs dropping by a few bp to 1.63% Its rights issue has been deferred and a standalone provision exceeds $1 bln despite CAR being a precarious 11.9% and the government continues to look for a way out of commiting $3 bln required to maintain its stake in a rights offer and increase in the bank’s equity
meanwhile upstream energy companies have also been chosen to bear the rising OIL bill increasing their contribution to 39% (proposed)
The bank’s NII is INR 80.6 bln and is likely looking to sustain its margins in the high rate regime, the changeover to a less aggressive marketing and a more compliant spread under P Chaudhuri. The standalone NII is an increase of 20% over yoy Q4 2010
A lot of good results have thus been temporarily ignored as the SBI catch up sinks in. Operating expenses only grew 13.67% year on year. NIMs in fact improved more than 25% from 2.66% to 3.32% for FY 2011 year on year. The Tax paid out will get them write backs as the provisions for pensions are expensed in the subsequent quarters
ON the whole the SBI effort has been an improvement but the bank is now going to start with following the letter of the law to the hilt as the first 3 quarters had already given it good profits and a
Profits seem below expectations at Rs 899 Crs or $225 mln esp as the expectation was a good 10% on the upside for NII, the Bank delivering less than $250 million even at 40 to the dollar, NIMs comparing with global peers in a far more unleveraged structure and NPAs rising despite spreads being almost static across the sector, the slow bear downhill is fast looking to break the ice in the lake..Welcome to bouts of snow in midday heat