India Morning Report: Markets reach the 6300 mark, will it hold as the new bottom?

Knowledge market BW
Knowledge market BW (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Eventually, 6300 may also hold as the bottom of the range and so armed with this knowledge market rangers on the Bull side may ordain the mark sooner this week and next but for now markets will trade it bullishly on Monday.  Pre Open saw a shard of pricing out in Bank of India again, sinking to a bottomless pit quote 30% down, bu tas of now the PSU banks remain the biggest risk on the downside ( esp if they catch our fancy as the markets go up, they would underline the lack of options in such a wide market with 3000 active quotes on NSE alone.

Deposits were finally ahead of loans in the report of week ended December 13, growing at 17% (INR 75 Tln) with Bank lending at 15%(INR 57 Tln). Non Food Credit stock is INR 56 Tln, making up most of the growth stock in lending (INR 320 bln out of INR 360 Bln)

As we mentioned at the cusp of the rally, infracos and IT remain sectors in which stocks have to be decided for the winners and losers , both right now moving in single file, IT moving together with a losing rupee and infra moving up together on good hope for policy day, like this week. However, IDFC for example has a much more bullish trade accumulation appealing to at least three class of investors including the passive institutionals and the active hedge traders in small infra hopes.

Traders continue to hope for the non obvious trades in each of their not so blue chip large trades which technically may no longer belong to the Midcap story either including Cairns, GMDC/NMDC, Hexaware/HCL Tech. Barclays did up the growth forecast of India Inc ahead of results season, but more on the lines of MSA’s war cry for an automatic upgrade to 6-7% growth for India Inc with positive Investment flows, because the deed is done, which sadly has still to unfold surprises with statistics belying the temporariness of this recovery without the requisite investment flows except the Net Exports as we wipe out the Current Deficit and markets cornered the shorts out again in December.

I could buy a few puts on HCL Tech just to wind them up and carry home some profits on the announcements as results start pouring in. That would be really the closest to a sure winner this quarter as the Ruee digs its heels in at 61-62 levels. Infy shorts will not bait the stock till 3600 probably and if you are bullish, the up move is unlikely at thse levels despite the oevrall atmosphere of continuing good news in the sector, and that will not extend the winning rallies of Mid Caps and Product companies like KPIT, Hexaware and Persistent either.

Glenmark and GAIL seem good additions for stock watching in 2014 to our already brilliant portfolio led by IDFC and YES Bank. Mining and Metals as also L&T are likely bad trades to start. Pharma remains the best sector for bulls in both Domestic and Exports stories despite the NPPA pricing policy implementation, a higher double digit CAGR growth assured in the domestic market, I’d say. Banks despite giving up the gains early on Monday, look like making up for the sobriety shown this quarter in 2014 too but stock selection has becom critically differentiating strategy between the sub par equals as well as the Private sector leaderboard.

NBFCs: Barclays completes process of closing out, buyers welcome

Barclays apparently thought it a good idea to enter India as a NBFC less than 5 years ago as NBFCs can open branches at will. However, as much noted, the model did not quite work for Barclays with a lack of probity and inability to grow in Credit cards forced the bank to sell out and close its operations in India.

It’s credit cards portfolio without its 20% NPSs as sold to SCB and of the 30 odd branches for the bank, hat have all stopped lending further, at least 20 ar ebeing closed down across the country leaving it with branches in ‘ single digits’ to manage the existing unsecured loan book

The loan assets are worth another INR 30 bln or $500 mln on top of the sale of INR1.75 bln in Credit card assets ( from 160,000 cardholders )

Eiko and her credit card
Image by eikootje via Flickr

Foreign Banks in India: StanChart, Deutsche Bank get new licenses

The bigger foreign banks in the country, SCB and HSBC have not activated new branches since 2009 and hold 94 and 50 branches respectively. Even as equity marets get bullish and a return to expansionaory policy is considered byt he Central bank, rate cuts following ina few months, not many foreign operations are considering a retail presence and growth in India since 2007 when DBS and Barclays showed interst and since have not expanded after 2 branches apiece in 2010.

This year, with no new branches the 5 licenses given will take SCB’s strength to 97 and Deutsche Bank to 17 with additions in Ahmedabad and Surat

Global players hold 7% of the assets in the Indian market, HSBC leading with $6bln in assets

Barclayscard Fire sale

Barclays Bank, 2 Victoria Street, Westminster,...

Image via Wikipedia

Barclays sold out its retail interest in India to Stanchart last week. Seemingly however., all’s not well as HSBC RBS still awaits the regulators directions on how to manage with license transfers unlikely etc. Int he SCB Barclays deal the thorn is the status of Barclays card accounts as only 150,000 o f the 300k members it had on rolls were sold ot Standard Chartered. Assuming that the Emrging markets specialist SCB did purchas erthe active accounts it means that most likely all the other 150k accounts are delinquent and not expected to be remunerative to the bank as the 150k sold were by themselves sold out at a not very expensive price for the buyer

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