India Morning Report: At the top, VIX = 18, NSE Nifty = 6535

DIIs are again trying to correct the market levels hoping for a bigger correction sooner than expected as markets having scripted a recovery trade from all time highs of 6500 level look to executing the same fueled by FII investments. Hopes of a mild correction in Banknifty continue as trades from 12000 levels in Banknifty are also stymied by the lack of positive PSU trades, SBI and BOB still counting as fundamentally short picks. PSU Bank Capital plans are likely to strain Government finances as Insurance companies also reach their sector exposure limit of 25%. It remains inadvisable to increase sector exposure levels from 25% as well and the problem is likely to get complicated as many PSU banks are unlikely to stop NPA accumulation at the 100 bln mark they magically topped up to in December 2013.

Meanwhile the Powercos (Distcos) supplying to Delhi have a long expected bonanza in regulatory assets allowed to be claimed by the State Regulator (DERC) (–see BS lead of date )but apparently the price rise and yield is already been priced into Rel Infra and Tata Power ( Tulsiani)

The VIX trade in the meantime flies off the handle at a tepid 18, the move from 14 to 18 completed in all of two trading sessions on Friday and Monday as Option writers finally got busier and naked calls and shorts covered out at Monday highs and markets continue upward. The PCR also is likely to be stretched at best to 1.30 and till then considerably larger highs could be established for the markets to return toa as indeed foreign buying of INR 16 Bln on Monday is likely to be followed by more such thrugh this week with many shortlisted stocks showing new stamina including Bajaj Auto which is likely to go up to 2050 levels if not 2150, Bharti which is still at  305 levels and can trade up to 335-345

Buying opportunities in ICICI Bank and HDFC bank would be grabbed by the markets though shorts re likely to succeed in Axis Bank as well, with its NPA and management problems unresolved. IDFC is one of the rare scrips that offers liquid trades witha 20% range from current levels on the long side to under 130 levels and YES Bank is also still a big gap from its earleir high valuations of 6000 valued  on the same economic scenarios back in 2011 as India repeats its unique performance twice within th single minded slow plodding recovery after the banks broke in 2008

Reliance however seems saturated at 855 levels and GAIL seems to have been ignored unnecessarily at 355 levels as Pharma is likely to be ignored till the end of the week Cipla headed to below 350 levels, Sun to 580 and probable 1950 marks for DRL while domestic producers with an export portfolio like Glenmark, Cadila and Aurobindo Pharma are likely to get a fresh batch o f long term investors from current levels itself

The Rupee’s trades at below 61 levels , opening at 60.70 in the morning are likely to be followed by better and lower yields in the Bond markets as investors follow the currency buying with some debt investments in India and hopes for an investment cycle upside to India increase with easier availability of “ECB” debt

One should choose pedigree and portfolio when choosing infra stocks and not follow for leveraged small promoters as deal wins in the space almost threaten the existence of such corporates instead of improving their chances given the debt raising limitations

Infy and TCS are already topped up in investor portfolios and current falls are fundamental revaluations and not much institutional trading is likely happening in the two stocks right now

The 2010 consumer flotation offers including Talwalkars, Prestige , Page and LL remain premium stocks with Thomas Cook for FIIS looking at sectoral picks

 

 

 

 

India Morning Report: Markets continues the ra-ra-rally to 6350; Business as usual strikes

The Rupee has finally moved into 61.50 marks, investor interest in the tech quartet unruffled by a climbing currency as Dollar indices moved to their lowest levels. The Banknifty is squarely above 11,150 marks on Thursday in an eventful week for bulls, enjoying a cash and positive calls led market supremacy over the cagey watchful investors with BJP backers having decided 200 seats in the National Parliament was worth a celebration too in the face of defating th eBears, an opportunity that does not come by regularly in every market segment and cannot be passed over.

PNB is back near 600 levels and the short trades are gone from even Maruti and others for the moment, likely to come back any time now below 6400 levels itself once the Put Call ration reaches 0.75-0.80. One hopes the shorts come in Index Options and not entirely in Index Futures or worse continuing in individual stock series.

To my mind PSUs like BOB are already looking overpriced again with their asset quality woes not done and BOB likely to be among the PSU strikes leading the way down, with a news driven exit in Adani remaining a probability after a quick rally in the same as this rally segment will unlikely see the one sided euphoria in Jubilant and Titan in 2010. The markets apparentlt kick into gear for welcoming the change in aviation rules allowing International flight without fleet and footprint restriction

Bajaj Auto still has a rally left for brave longs at 2020 levels, using Maruti to torque the trade ( Buy Bajaj Auto Sell Maruti) and starting a similar trade in Hero at 1850 levels ( unlikely to get lower levels int he same) The Trade will likely last thru any index led direction for the market. Index moves are matched tick for tick by the new LIX 15 showing the hold of rare liquid stocks on the market. Markets will correct once pre elections or immediately after results so broader interest can rride on the secular move to 7000 warranted by FY14 earnings and FY15 forecasts even in absence of a recovery

The Cement stock rally indeed seems a little too precocious even this late, as expat commentators would dig their heels in to say in three months time when the GDP recovery led trades start a final swing at old 6400 levels Construction and RE stocks should be avoided.

Your pharma portfolio picks may see a sneaked in ride as markets consolidate, as IDFC finally crosses back into the Century plus marks, both Glenmark and Cadila coming back stronger ona Green only map day for the markets , twice in this week

Time is probably ripe for selling in IT now esp with Infy at 3900 levels. Media scrips have again seen older bullish levels in an almost hidden move on an all green day hiding poor Sun TV(no longer media)  in plain sight with more secular picks like ENIL (Mirchi) and Zee

Bharti is back at 280 levels and the big trade in the stock could take it quickly back to 335 levels , GAIL and ITC is also a long only pick at current levels

India Morning Report: Markets digest a rate hike and the new Maruti equation

India Auto ExpoYou heard it in 2009, Suzuki may go it alone:

The 7th Maruti Suzuki plant in Gujarat adding capacities to its 1.75 mln cars from Gurgaon and Manesar which has already seen union troubles in the North, will actually belong to Suzuki in a new Wholly owned subsidiary and as royalty terms have not changed the new production available from Gujarat in 2015 will improve MSIL’s margins. MSIL already is the dominant component of Suzuki’s global sales. The markets are however punishing Maruti for the loss of faith , the automaker springing the surprise from its ranks mid afternoon yesterday. Today’s morning quotes will be 20% lower and likely fall a further 5% tomorrow though 1200 is improbable. A Suzuki coming into India alone means it may be planning exiting its Maruti investment except for its commitments to successive Indian governments over the years. Maruti trade is being closed within this series as speculators likely get ready for a short trade in the new series after having been farmed in the construction sector. The Gujarat plant will supply only to Maruti production

Biocon is back in Volume breakouts from the switchout in cash

Rate Hike

Markets will likely digest the rate hike given good liquidity, as mentioned in Bank Policy Tuesday yesterday however the 8.5% and lower yields will now wait till end 2014 and at least one quarter of good growth with strong positive investments. The higher rate environment may not translate into higher retail rates and credit expansion may also not be threatened, but was it required? Yields did move separately from Currency markets before policy and thus Policy rate hikes squeezed the exchange rate back to 62.50 levels

Airtel again, Idea bhi

Airtel is definitely back in the mix, changes at the top likely positive even for Manoj Kohli who finally moves to the new businesses invested from the Telecom win for the Mittals over the years. Idea’s ARPU gains despite revenue per minute dying means both Idea and RCOM are also likely to see long trades and Bharti remains the back bone of he market as IT and Pharma break down. Tomorrow would probably be ITC again and the day after that Bharti

Bharti PAT is up 20% on quarter and ARPUs to 195 frm 192 spectrum auctions stamp their market print on Feb 03 and Feb04(post announcements). Africa ARPUs are up 10c to $5.80 or INR 360.

Sell 6100 Puts

If you are finally tired of shorting the market and Ashwini baiting from your camp you may join in too but ahead of expiry, 6100 uts are likely to look tempting and markets will close 6100 with such a huge magnitude of newsflow  getting hope trades shucked off by early market moves last week and shorts on DLF , Unitech and HDIL would likely be the biggest winners of the series. The days trading would likely see a similar mood sneaking into 6200 uts , which however is a function of the other market forces discussed with a 40 point increase in NIFTY being par and leaves tthe markets at 6160 and markets may not want to control further BEAR GREED till todays close whence the 6200 trade still rewards that additional risk

Banks are a big buy

10,600 seems to have done it for the Banknifty and investors are likely to stay glued to ICICI and HDFC Bank on the rise. Axis Bank fell 3% yesterday at the fag end of the correction ( on markets breakdown post Maruti announcements) ICICI Bank reports with India Starbucks (Tata Global) . Starbucks ma also prefer a new 100% investment in India after 25 stores have opened with Tatas.

After ICICI Bank’s clean sweep today, tomorrow will see earnings from Hero sandwiched by Bank of India and SBT and after the Adani and IDFC reports on Friday we close out earnings season with a fairly robust performance, near 20% profit growth still standard fare for the biggies.

Other Results

REC, M&M and Cox & Kings report on the 14th of Feb, ILFS Transpo, Page (and Lovable?) and Finolex Cable on 12th and Bombay Dyeing on the 13th. Lovable is doing well in the trade prioritiising for the New FMCG adds in 2010 IPOs

India Morning Report: Building up that range between 6300 and 6500, Energy Cos let fly

Call buying in the new year has resumed in 6500 and 6600 strikes underlining market confidence in making the upside while 6300 Puts define the bottom of the range (Sold puts always in a bull ‘candle’)

Also non food credit growth signifies Banknifty has less pressure on it to buy up its PSU components before the secular recovery takes hold in India Inc., right now recovery prospects led by better performing banks and corporates, even select Mid caps. BOI and All Bank seem to be in the buy rush but buyer beware doctrine applies nd we remain happy with PNB as March shows the having accounted for the bad losses and survived with better provisioning.

The Energy Cos are way ahead in the New Year esp if you include the rally on 30/31 as the pace of increases in Diesel prices and the increase in Non subsidized LPG confirm better prospects and however also confirm that the battle against the Fisc will last a long time unlike the chutbhiyas fighting it out for an ex Infy startup tickets in Bangalore (AAP gets a dirty linen in the streets fight with Pai and Bala joining against Nilekani)

Infy did start back at 3500 but there is a further downside risk from the fracas probably enthusing electorates and markets in its incipient hour tonight. HCL Tech is a great short right now to save your Bull Dollars. Cadilla and Glenmark remain the important buys with IDFC, YES and Bharti and ITC leading the Bull charge. Bharti tops its trading range around 345 and the ITC breakout is still long way to go in January.

Maruti sales hit rockbottom in December, so  I would have waited two weeks to confirm the trend for January before including them in the Volume breakouts. Sales at Toyota were down to 12k and Maruti a paltry 90k, this trend much like our Maid in Manhattan and her UN immunity spawned employer Devi Khobragade a little too ahead to go with real recovery trends, even belying equally bad sales in January too perhaps?

IIP ticks up again for December as and when data is processed but bank credit jump is part of the lag with no new projects expected in December – March and WPI will remain stressed near 7 levels and higher even without the customary poll sops in this season Indusind is not a good buy and that with the lack of buyers as volumes return this week means the bull ticks will be slow except for Power and Oilcos

India Morning Report: Markets slip as PSU bank investors stay away

Is Inflation the Real Problem?
Is Inflation the Real Problem? (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Active index and Banknifty balancing in a stable India economy above 6% growth involved the usual confidence investing in PSU banks a two thirds of the Banknifty to and or xis, HUL and a select set of defensives , that have disappeared as markets fall thru additional support levels. Apart from the loss to Ashwini Gujrl’s set of picks seen over two – three weeks post ‘shucking’, any other impact on the markets is lacking. One feels the confidence shown in non leveraged High Operating Leverage businesses in small and mid cap sector is also misplaced. Such High Operating Leverage Businesses with more than even 75% Op Margin in cases have time and again shown that less than 1 in 20 such businesses , even with deep pockets like Jyothi Labs, convert into a brand and a business like Bharti.

Bharti and ITC lead markets back and Lupin has a lot of strength left in it. Expectation have come back to a 360 Cipla to kick off the game for this rally segment and ICICI Bank and Axis are also losing ground from a probable low yesterday as the Banknifty sinks into 11,500 levels. However, the end (of the shorts) is nigh. This observed bear extension on Thursday is a direct concomitant of a stable PCR near 1 levels leaving writers hungry for more and writing calls is always easier than underwriting puts at new market levels

Tulsian’s faith in the ‘shadow stockings’ ahead of Christmas is also back, but we don’t think  UB Ltd will be compensated fr not rushing returns in the merger and bankruptcy melees of the crisis Olympics. However, it would be  good idea to sink into HDFC and Siemens.

Also Barclays Capital, as we have been following got in  5 out of 7 the same selection of 2014 picks. We already made it clear Tata Motors is a big sell on 2014, probably bigger than the Jindal Steel breakdown which will stop out of the ‘bear cartel’ push at 225 levels The Energy trade should be pushed but the Fisc is already distressing and the release of Fert subsidies at INR 50 Bln  was already a razor edge detail for the Corps watching India’s clawback on global fortunes. Assuming NTPC would not be ready to immediately step up on reform gear and leverage growing efficiency, we would disagree with buys on NTPC.  GMR is back in the big bids and the big bullish candle moving GMR, RelInfra and IDFC together with JP Associates should land on the next bevy of drones.(any independent rally segment up or down can be ascribed to a virtual set of drones picking the right calls). Bank of America, the other who nailed the Economy without attention to thoughts of a wavering Rupee (more than required) will also be worth tallying scores in 2014

The 15% Food inflation and the 12% contraction in Consumer Durables (read our earlier monthly commentary on PMI/Inflation) put paid to any thoughts of a recovery improving despite news of a Q3 debacle already factored/expected for October 2013 and probably till December 2013 s this includes our festival time data. November Auto sales disappointed for all though retail inflation has been strong (good demand indicator) in Consumer durables items on existing stocks as production has been subdued for more than 6 months now

Again, despite the policy tightening, banks are unlikely to need rate hikes as they have weaned off MSF rates. Also retail inflation will continue fueled by higher Food inflation , in double digits due to supply and other economic concerns for small and rural businesses. onion rices have corrected sharply in the meantime and Food inflation data for the month was likely overstating facts, returning to lower double digit levels in the remaining 5 months of the Fiscal.

Oh yeah, we may have forgotten, in the search for Economic employment, the Global recovery of 2014, is not happening except in US Equities as Europe proves its a dead continent and a usurius currency. China thus also fails despite a better share of its own currency in exports again and that leaves US and India and the ROW without business ends to close deals beyond a hygienic rise in Trade led growth. US is also stuck at 3% levels despite the mentored lower trajectory for Currency and rates which a good motivator but the currency is unlikely to be allowed to get eweaker at least from the current Dollar Index levels, probably never below 78 in all of 2014 even as Oil imports stop for the Superpower of the 20th century. And that, is despite the taper.

India Morning Report: Nifty switches up range to 6100-6300, Is 6200 on the horizon

Anjum Bharti - 05
Anjum Bharti – 05 (Photo credit: Adarsh Upadhyay)

 

The Aside of the day comes from Network Analyst picks, with Sandeep Wagle who is seldom wrong on the trend change running with his bearish bet till 5950 which he had to exit. His buy picks have come in sleepers like USL and Kotak, both of which we think will not deliver much this year.

 

USL sell off of Whyte & Mackay while being a cash boon to the debt on the Balance sheet, is still a sentimental stab in the heart for that scotch brand could well have created that elusive broader market for top of the line alcoholic beverages in a market addicted to imports at usurius prices, showing in profits in the F&B  in the Hotels segment

 

Meanwhile, Compatriot Mitesh Thakkar has been better endowed switching Sandeep’s non run scoring cap ex giant hope L&T with BHEL and I think also his TVS Motor was better switched with ”

 

Philip Capital (USL defender but long term buy on the stock, not short or intermediate) also had good FMCG picks and though Starbucks has opened in Bangalore, one thinks the same Longer term view is true for their FMCG picks including Tata Global Beverages and Dabur. Ashburton, despite the India specific commentary seems to be an index based fund across EMs and India

 

Sun Pharma is back in the bull basket of traders with an announced buyback being the post election surprise and the Bank Nifty has settled in at 11k marks probably gathering shorts, thrown out of Nifty in a big lurch on Monday. The Cairn buyback is bigger news but with outstanding results still away, one may not get the bang for the trading buck there

 

Markets have hit back as of yesterday and the new 10-yr bond trading has immediately rushed yields back to 8.7% in the morning, Rupee revitalised to 62.3 by 10 am, showing the potential untouched as markets took the yields of an expired bond so seriously, it was probably to the extent of a ‘not funny’ slur on the extent India deserves to be labeled a Fragile Five member ahead of Institutions making fun of the Tapering business on networks. US yields will rise and the Taper will not happen so soon, all that has happened in between is that Janet Yellen has been confirmed and she does not think a $5 Tln balance sheet can say Taper is a bad idea. The Rupee propably making this entire year pre taper more a challenge test (agnipariksha style)

 

NREGA will be a nice hit to Election pandering ‘in-throne’ incumbent as BJP struggles with a cause and high turnouts could indeed be another factor for Congress to weakly hold on to in making a comeback election happen. The media dissing of Congress can still hardly be ignored despite the survey technology of the wipe being more than 3 Fridays old

 

NREGA wages will be increased based on recommendations of a committee led by India’s Chief Statistician Pranab Sen

 

Yes Bank was bit by the regional bug in a sudden switcheroo by the markets on the Banknifty, trading still at 350 as it seems to have showed its Punjab hand in picking up the Title Sponsorship for the Indian Hockey League. However, they would still be a national brand, as would be Field Hockey as Zed comes back to bowl the Pakis out on South African soil. My generation is probably not the best to assess cricketing talents of the new look South African, Aussie and English teams either as they all look uniformly weak in the deluge of fresh faces, making West Indian whitewash by India a mystery incomprehensible. Also, Yes Bank may have not given such a signal to the markets or such picked by them, this being an erudite observation only to my eyes as I equate the game with a certain neighbour of Delhi in the north nor Yes staying bak with the media team push of the game sponsorship.

 

The Energy trade seems to have finally hit GAIL and the other LNG stocks as Oil stocks enjoyed a big relief rally on Monday and one last month

 

Big is back in reckoning in banks with ICICI Bank showing more uside. I would also recommend to continue trading upp in ITC, IDFC and Bharti. Bharti is singled out today leaving Bajaj Auto breathless only for the day as Bharti gets out an ECB card from its PR team before the final date of the Spectrum auctions, where they have certainly won themselves a near value for money tag in the relicensing forced on the huge Indian market and avoided a lot of unnecessary expenditure if the CAG report had indeed come out on the winning side.

 

Meanwhile Lehar follows Cyclone Helen on the Eastern coast but the Seemandhra and Telangana GDPs are pretty much safe, except for the large scale destruction of seafaring life and human villages near the coast .

 

The Sugar trade is a lost cause, the volatile commentary not helping the midcap stocks with limited contribution to India’s humanitarian and Western Export which hold the key to riches and a better CAD till 2019 when the next General Elections com around and China would have found a new normal it has ‘founded’ last two-three years

 

 

 

India Morning Report: Lets get some money from call writing quickies – Mid November hubris

Siège nord américain d'UBS
Siège nord américain d’UBS (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It’s probably the limited upside, but mostly the markets were pretty itchy at 6200 in the middle of the November series and so the shorts have worked out. Also importantly, none of the good to great outperformers/strong buys like YES, ITC, IDFC or Bharti and Bajaj are down except for the Bank trade again weighed by PSUs hurting Private Banks in the dominos game and ICICI Bank remains a leading call writing target . The new 2023/24 bond being released day after has meantime ensured the fixed income shorts for yields look at bonds above the critical 9% mark inciting the sceptical trade on India deepening Money markets and Fixed income trade

However, that move in mind, this market could have easily moved out of the woods at 6100 levels,  and will probably do that before end of day today. Despite UBS and Credit Lyonnaise (Bhanu Baweja , Fixed Income and Chris Wood , Strategit of favor levelsst), markets move to 5900 and not behind 6100 will be that bottomless pit one wants to avoid sticking cash in.

Power NBFCs are good buys again. The Reliance Infra trade probably also opened two way liquidity where one side of the trade is actually close to breaking its margin wall, thus tempting predators with no downside targets in mind, led by Ashwini Gujral  (perhaps unwittingly) and as I mentioned the ICICI Bank trade (SS). Currency is stable at 63 levels. Any hits to 70 levels post elections cannot be avoided as a fresh slate of CAD and Fiscal worries are definitely hard to wipe off the scoreboard without real investments, Europe cannot make and the Taper that will come. Staying invested rather than exiting with Cash and Gold is however the strategy at this time. M&M springs to mind and one fundamental intelligent strategy would be to limit exposure to depreciation stars like IT, esp third tier players like Infosys and Tech Mahindra

Those rushing to Mid Cap rerating up are also fresh out of ideas. The real factor steaming down market levels which one can separate in the meantime is the fundamental variation of the 2080 rule playing out in the mrket. Instead of just the select 20 stocks in the large caps rising we have the other 80(Eighty) being almost disbanded to permanently(seemingly) out of favor levels as evidenced by yesterday’s A-D line. This “acceleration of reform” undertaken by the market segment needing to justify shorts, is misguided and ll only bring the other 20 to shaky two way disrepute as good scrips add on unwanted volatility

Today will thus see an unwanted spike in volatility which will test these new found memes laser focussed on jst the best 12 or 20 scrips that are equated to yesterday’s “Sure things”. And, of course ( with no thought to grammar as you read this as spoken) , the bullish State Bank trade or the frustrated India shining trade post Jet Airways sell out to etihad or the lower expectations from full priced aviation going forward, SIA or Asia Airlines Tier 2 town strategy

Welcome home to India, expats. Less than 10% of our current imports are Chinese

 

India Morning Report: A double trade in IT and the falling Gold prices but China is not good for the Dollars

Before we proceed however on the mechanics of an extremely juicy rally portender yesterday, I/we must recommend you dig in to Bharti, ITC and Bajaj Auto irrespective of your faith in the Network Analysts out there recommending fresh shorts. The thing to worry about is the weak prices in Gold right on the edge of festival season, as buyers tend t o stay away unless there is a heady cheer and while import limits CAD, Gold is still below 30,000 per 10 grams in trades around the country and on MCX.

The MCX resolution is also a matter for some grave restructuring and not an easy one as the promoter being the Technlogy provider and if they have been given permission to create the public exchange in such, the regulators must also bear it and not fall for a half baked compromise.

That said, the correction in IT stocks yesterday was a simple reminder that ESOP mechanics and Wealth Funds still hold sway on that sector as it is overweight in most global portfolios plus ESOP managers have a real safe exit if they can recommend take profits on post results euphoria. However, other insiders may also be involved in that they guess the “Q4 Winter” about to strike IT prospects may really simmer down market interest in the IT pack. However, as the rally proceeds this correction ahs also made possible for short term traders to dig into the sector as a fail safe trade probably before the first two weeks of November series are over.

Rupiah
Rupiah (Photo credit: Anis Eka)

Also, the banks are back as policy tones clearly show Repo rate pressures are off because Taper is moving out at least another year and that also means a stronger Rupee, Baht and Ringgit or even the Rupiah and Won that have shown up as pressure spots again in the Emerging Asia economies because of a uniquely intractable dependence on the US Dollar(“single currency” ).

Rupee however may skip the party even as inflows return because of the Crude prices ratcheting up the difference again and supply chain pressures will keep food inflation also high, rural consumption at a better tick thru festival season and it seems a dead Bollywood except Anil Kapoor’s above average attempt at bringing professional production to Colors ( as usual) KBC is working up the consumption dime too. Rupee will however seemingly head to 60 before the investor celebration begins with fresh inflows exceeding expectations into Election time

6100 is already back an the straddle at 6200 (sold call)  5700 (sold put) will have to move up again to 6500 levels but you should not switch till it is time

China GDP is still at a resilient 7.8% bottom and the credit squeeze, real estate asset bubble or a sad 2014 outlook mean the sun is not shining on private and llisted share portfolios in the biggest and only superpower enticing OECD funds and locking them in by the month, now at a 72 month positive inflow trend, and likely unbroken. Also China orders for Iran crude are up 60% that may still influence crude prices stabilizing.

Hindi on whimsy: Akasmat(Sudden, equally apt in both up and down moves); utavala na hona(to not look too eager)

India Morning Report: A sudden change of heart(afternoon) as Banknifty breach closes up

English: Logo of Bharti
English: Logo of Bharti (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It wasn’t a wren and martin breach however as the morning saw weak NPA stories slitting from private banks in the Banknifty components, but as that grouped SBI and performing PSBs such as PNB with the weak quality ethic portfolios the breach rather filled up and the traders move on the Nifty south frrom 5950 itself has been closed by the afternoon before morning FTSE and European trades took business elsewhere in the global 24 hour timeline for today’s markets.

Trade data showed exports up to $27 Bln, a nice growth dividend , though a one off in the year  also leads to shoring of sentiment as the weak India story tries to grip old India pockets in Financial centers like London, themselves struggling to make a mark in what started a s  a benign year of recovery.

EMs are back in portfolios and Services Indices n India and US are under pressure from spending cuts with Euro still hot in afternoon trades as the October FOMC passes by tonight with a mandate for Yellen. SBI got a shot in the arm after the duress long exected in the stock, as the SBI GM in place and a likely future Chairperson, Arundati Bhattacharya explained the process of shoring up quality  in detail and IT investors and other traditional India trades tried to ngulf the bank’s weak asset quality in a single south trade on all government owned banks

One still wonders if changing norms to release Government Bills and long dated bonds from controls will work for India wih such strong anti-measures from the  “India Bull” community

Also on the credits is the way Bharti managed the press bytes and the non devolvement of the story around a crushed Walmart in the run up of a Modi inspired changeover at India’s helm in the 2014 General Elections

India’s growth charts currently continue at a flat minimum under 4% and the same was confirmed by IMF in yesterday’s report leading to the morning clouds as Rupee slipped back to 62.5 levels. Since then the Deposit story is back with NRI swas and more and the Rupee is back at 61.7 levels before infy results later this week

India’s exports at $26.8 Bln were nearly $2 Bln ahead of the staid $5 Bln average rate we hit early in 2012-13 wih the plunging  bottom of the growth story and were fist signs of growth in exports let alon import substitution after the currency went thru serial pangs of double digit depreciation from 47 levels

Bharti will easily survive the retail FDI wind-down while it remainsan important ndia focus brand to own as does ITC. Yes Bank and HDFC Bank also remain great picks with a lot f investing capacity for foreigners and IDFC is catching fire again to fill any gas from “lack of confidence” in India’s branded consumption stories like Bharti, ITC or Bajaj Auto

 

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