India Morning Report: A ferocious return to the nineties, and bye Mr Singh?

The Nifty Nineties
The Nifty Nineties (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Ajay Srivastava of dimensions woke me to another nineties dictum we used to abide by. The higher the interest rates, the more money for the banks to make. Of course the transition will be difficult but it may well happen that while the markets readjust sharply (and hence the ferocious return above may well be antsy pantsy horrific and squeamishly fragile)

The Dollar has finally found its match of the Indian Hockey team’s heydeys. But before we go for the corny stuff, the details as we see it. interest rate margins will expand as banks , esp midcaps start the healing process for themselves by raising lending rates (YES has increased base rate today by 25 bp) The capital markets will continue to slide but once the banks break their downtick as the rupee’s downtick will continue beyond such levels till even periliously close to the 70s whether India’s sovereign bonds borrowed in rupees or dollars.

Banks as they are wont to, will soon be found readjusting faster and in a position to look at the bright side of things as India Inc wakes up to the new levels to operate International business at, and markets will even return to celebrate another round of robust reported results from Bharti today morning.

Double digit rates are probably not so tough for India Inc but that move has definitely failed for the Central bank and for the Fin Min. However the UPA/Congress has had  a few laughs in the last few days and its still not party time for the NaMo face to take over the Indian mindset.

Indices are probably not going below 5300 levels but those looking for a return to 5800 may be a little buzzed by unwanted attention (and crank calls, maybe) to their person and offices. Markets will probably wait to rise back (and will keep falling as opposed to nursing the morning’s wounds) till the close of week operations but FIIs had probably started closing out their hedge positions last week and yesterday so the indices will know how much exactly the rupee exchange matters. however at this end of the business cycle, credit growth is definitely unhindered from here. Also it is a relief  to see DLF fall back to 150 levels , though at a very broad market cost as the distinction between infrastructure investment and constrction growth finally gets encilled in on other India experts. Funnily enough even REC is also 150 levels right now as NBFCs will get boxed in by their banks again the fastest, in the most efficient leg of the rate transmission workaround and banks will also probably reassess the advantages f having increased monetary transmission to retail and wholesale markets as they had ample liquidity for more than 12 months whence rate cuts cycle was squeezed. rupee well nigh opened to 61 levels in the morning nd it is atleast one market where the droping vlues have not poduced many losers yet (ha ha!)

Happy Thursdays! The India March Reports on IIP, PMI , Inflation and the year ahead in tweets

After the hour: Exports came out with even stronger growth for India clocking 34% higher at nearly $24 billion for April, maintaining the new heady run rate since Jan 2011. Imports continue to grow at 22-27% higher to $34 billion adding $10 billion to the monthly deficit but the higher exports making up for a long lost impetus

 

In tweets       indiaseminars In tweets  
                   Food Articles Inflation down 85 bps at 7.7% , Primary articles down below 12%.  
                   marginal improvement in non-food but India story survives

 In tweets  

India IIP consumer goods growth healthy at 7.3%, PMI steaming at 58  

 In tweets  

India IIP 7.3%, basic & intermediate goods stuck at below 5% but Cap goods, Utilities back at 12 & 9%, despite high yoy comparisons in 03/10

 In tweets  

Emerging Markets should continue raising interest rates | Advantage Economics | The Banking and Stra… 

 In tweets  

There is no QE2 unwinding when June comes 

 In tweets  

India’s new look Infra resources now a multibillion industry looking to ECB funds regularly Post:  WP:

 In tweets  

Neglecting India’s infrastructure preparedness a travesty..for the investors who lose out 

 In tweets  

banks back in the main tiles today, don’t misss them..

 In tweets  

India Earnings Season, all highlights that matter ..

 In tweets  

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan still the best traders, is there a second tier that survives? Isn’t it time you followed China.. 

 In tweets  

NSE, BSE continue to look eager to for a “deep dive” in mid market trades

 In tweets  

An eventful global Wednesday yuesterday with HSBC, Rajaratnam

 In tweets  

BHEL receiving $400mln for 1.26 GW capacity supplied to Iraq (govt )  

 In tweets  

sonam kapoor at Cannes in designer clothes by Rhea – India’s Ms World story is truly overrr

 In tweets  

Will this 300 million share $9 bln AIG offering in IPO also shift to Asia again?

 In tweets  

Cong back with a bang in election results tonight except in TN where it is still counting Rajahs on its banknotes

 In tweets  

india gets its own Competition law allowing M&A below $1 bln t/o without verification for monoply

 In tweets  

Devyani International is planning to invest into 200 new restaurants across KFC, Costa, Pizza Hut in India post-IPO foll. Dominos, Starbucks

 In tweets  

Indian Retail Lifestyle extravaganza: Pizza Hut, Costa’s Franchisee in India going public for $200 mln, investing as much as Pepsi itself

 In tweets  

India Pvt Sector Insurance: MNYL valued at $400 mln for stake sale to Axis Bank  

 In tweets  

HSBC’s Strategy day could be an example for BofA too.. | The Banking and Strategy Initiative 
 In tweets  
Rajarathnam guilty on 19 counts- The extent of insider trading in the Financial Markets|The Banking and Strategy Initia…

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: