India Morning Report: Agricultural subsidies are a Global Constant, bullish trend remains

U-Car 2014

Sugar Export markets ar unlikely to ruffle any other segment of the market as the issue of agricultural subsidies was settled for good in the latest renewals by Asia and EMs led by India and continuing noise on farm subsidies are likely to be brushed off by most including customers of Indian sugar. The government has approved a INR 3.3K subsidy for 4 mln tonnes of Exports of sugar in February and March.

Of course, India’s battle with Export competitiveness is past most winnable battles and we are just increasing our tendency to be a worthless ( in terms of premium) commodity exporter, as is the wont of most resource Economies as well with far more disastrous Economic consequences like Brazil and Indonesia.

India will never be confused with the likes of the same despite setting at 4.5% and 4.9% growth in two consecutive years of GDP growth and a 25% decline in currency repeated twice in a block of 10 years, a far mitigating circumstance than Brazil or Turkey’s Economic history and one could have also included China in that list but for the almost independence of policy and execution in a democratic form of government.

India equities maintain a bullish trend ( to 6100) as a cognition of far reaching reforms did barely enough to pick outstanding dozen or so large Cap companies, usually more than enough for any broad market to survive.  The missing depth cannot come overnight and Investors are more than satisfied with the new crop of 2010 IPOs in the Consumer sector including Thomas Cook now dealt with, and Page and LL continuing older trends. That also means scrips like ttk , Titan and others that do not represent the broader market will not recover interest and those with very wide off the mark correlations to sectoral growth will not be propped up despite weak governance and order book issues at L&T and BHEL. Crompton Greaves trade is likely to sustain as the Investments and Capital Expenditure segments of the GDP stay in focus.

The Rupee started early yesterday catching the advantage of depth and domestic markets back to the Indian Debt and Equity capital markets, as a US long term bond auction also registered a new faith in reduced tapering promised by the Fed, allowing Global investors following the risk money to come in without the wait and watch chip reducing their participation

Citi is betting this will transpire in India having come out on the CAD front after extended delays and qualifying others dependence on Foreign debt skewing the CAD dependence factor, however it likely to be secular Dollar dependence worries for such resource Economies which will again qualify India ahead of the “EM Basket” and China as well in this year, though on a smaller order of magnitude of FDI flows.

I would also think the Tata Motors bull trade is vulnerable to falling off sooner. However, immediately Cipla’s results have extended the trade in both Hero and Tata Motors apart from individual stockpicking decisions.Cipla reported margins that are 600 basis points lower.

India Morning Report: Pacified by US liquidity, markets gets on (to 6100)

The Nifty is up 25 points in morning trades, taking a 6090 clip to test the 6100 levels though new buyer interest is looking iffy. Selling and profit taking orders have topped out however, and Banknifty has resumed a positive bias though a trend is yet to form with the PSU block moved aside, the index being a traders” delight esp. with shorts on Kotak pressuring in house support

ICICI Bank is up 2%, HDFC Bank is in the middle of the 600-680 range strong as ever. Tata Steel continues down, renewing its correlation charts again with Ranbaxy even as the Steel sector’s fortunes have brightened. China’s remaining the question mark has likely provided long term investors with exceptional opportunities to accumulate at a stable price band.

ITC is looking like evaluating 325 marks anew for a new rush as it is safe in being a bull scrip but there is no current trade in the scrip. Bharti as expected likes 300 levels pretty much for keeps except a small downside risk to 290, and informational marking of the stock is likely to show up more often from here.

Bond investors should be interested in this Bond market but again, a short term spiking of yields is likely even after docile 10 month trade data. Gold and Silver imports have caught up to almost 2013 levels at $1.72 B and noise demanding removal of curbs has likely increased on the Central Bank. Trade deficit for January kept the $10 bln average, but the good story is that Exports at a healthy $27 Bln (26.75) are a significant improvement after being tied to a non growth $25 Bln mark and Oil imports are under $14 Bln again. Going forward the natural impetus to India growth is likely again multiplied by a continuing dullness in Oil prices and Dollar inflows may well continue headed home in the 9% yield scenario beating a few HY options a s well

Investments promoting Indian GDP growth do not look like having grown past the 5% mark. IT is buoyant on 2014 prospects but headroom is limited except TCS, well corrected for a move back to 2300 levels. I would have thought FY16 Estimates would show the gap being overestimated currently by the market at 14 multiples or thereabout (FY15 multiples are near 17)

Other Emerging markets are likely to cede to India again in 2014 as Janet Yellen looks to fine tune the taper design with a smaller cut in inflows going forward and Stanley Fischer is confirmed as Vice Chair.

Indian Media sector is probably looking a little tired at the bottom of the cycle, with IPL advertising revenues likely to exceed expectations in an overseas edition. However, in unlisted business, more gains are accruing for digital movers as E Commerce is currently buoyant with PE funding.

“Winners Curse” by Goldman Sachs analysts gets a popular break in the media for the coming price wars but the auctions process over the last 2-3 years more importantly showed businesses do not overpay for such commodities. Auctions lasted 6 days as of yesterday’s reports for INR 600 B inflows. Investors may take hope from Sustainable pricing at Bharti having lasted 2-3 quarters surviving on minutes and ARPU metrics. Both Idea and Bharti will be formidable to beat in Data for newcomer Reliance JIO which apparently has bid nearly INR 30bln adding reports in the ET on total investments. Vodafone , as a 100% business make the foolishly high premium move again to start off The Hunger Games

Maruti may be ripe for fresh shorts again in the Auto sector as exports volumes increase at Ford, GM, Nissan and VW. The markets would be increasingly straitjacketed on any up and down moves till the Vote on Account announcement and are thus more likely to be a volatile move on announcement, esp when the expected :no action: status from the FM is construed as a big disappointment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

India Morning Report: There is no hope trade in sight

But I’d say keep accumulating as the indices break through a critical 6000 mark. Many blue chips, like in global markets offer extreme value in buys even as the speculative trade fails to take off on a delayed recovery.  Gujarat’s downfall over the small matter of a receding poverty line not helping the cause of the markets rich BJP is a puerile coincidence for the markets, but correspondingly there is no Congress faction left in the markets to buno the tanabana, Markets selling the stable BJP proposition backing out for an increased negative momentum(undesirably sharp)  on the downward side

The IT trade coming into profit taking for the almost first time except for a pre results redenomination, there ae buyers out there who are ok with the premium on Infy to a low 3475 market price and HCL Tech is good for a move of Rs 100 or more. Thus if all sectors move together like the Tuesday open, markets could see almost unheard of hlevels receding to 2012 levels no longer required by the New Dolla r prices. That also means these exits will cascade the Rupee even as it holds at 62.50 to 63 levels , that being a new fresh level for the currency. However it is still possible that with DIIs coming back as markets sell off that the gradual sell off can indeed turnaround and complete the prophesied ( by certan others , also old hands) pre election rally in India. The sell trade on ITC will likely never exit 290 levels an such picks abound with limited downside even in the correction which will confuse buyers into making losing commitments so a wait and watch is necessary. F&O markets return back to index only specials and i the downmove is to be arrested by Vols at 14 this will be a small enough move, but that is unlikely leaving vols (India Vix) ranging between 14 and 16 till the first buyers return whence new VIX levels would only see increasing volatility

However as we were stock specific going up and DIIs look for bargains to pick up pieces, there are gaps in how the markets will rebuild momentum most buyers holding on to prior 2013 selections including the new Aurobindo and Sun Pharma trades( a great defensive for mopping up your prop liquidity) in IDFC at 90, ICICI Bank almost ready at 930 levels ( the next levels are around 871), Yes Bank ( bottom at 267 will likely not reach the same so accumulating should be ready  – like a dark pool premium),  Bajaj Auto, ITC, Bharti and no – not ttk and titan currently as there is much more going down in that specific market despite the penchant of the self funded margin traders in our domestic brokerages like Angel, SMC and Centrum including the overlap with commodities wealth accounts. There will be no dlf trade north, none in Jubilant foods, titan or ttk and none in HDIL or unitech much later. Axis Bank’s orphaned again being misused in the prior rallies, leaving nay of the F&O speculators heading there at great risk from those targeting their brand of stupidity after getting on the right investments. Trading as a game may try not to suffer though sharp bear phases and quick bull recoveries are not ruled out with brokers and traders living the cricket dictum of well left alone even for great value picks in Midcaps The trades are mostly in Spreads, Bear spreads in your choice made by buying Puts at the just OTM (ATM-OTM>= 0) and selling a lower put to part fund the trade. Bull spreads, which wold be due n a couple of weeks, go bought Call just OTM (ITM-OTM>=0) which reflects better liquidity as well and thus better premiums, and partly funded by distant OTM Calls ( nly one or two will have  tested and liquid quotes where you do not pay excess liquidity spreads)

 

India Morning Report: Is SBI adequately capitalised after the $1.2 B QIP

Of course on paper 12.8% Tier I is nothing to scoff at, however the bank’s larger book of advances makes its likely that it would need additional funding soon and now would wait for the government to fill up the tank on Capital. PNB on the other hand is a value play at 520 and Bank of India at 140-50 levels could be offering value for incoming investors ‘cept for the NPA monologues, not in play at PNB in this FY(FY14) where SBI and BOI would lose further stock with analysts

Meanwhile, the weekly closing will be positive, and the new series will see a build u of positive trades. Apparently Nifty and the Blue chis all fell 10-15% in the January series. The currency saga is also over with the post taper trade turning out a whimper and US equities smartly rallying in Thursday trades. While Asian markets may enjoy a bigger uptick on that rebound in Morning trades, Indian markets will decide as they go along with all stock specific trades holding

Havell’s has been a great story this year and will see 2014 exceptionally favorably. Powergrid and REC anyone? The trade wis ripe alongwith IDFC as Mumbai’s Monorail comes online in a late reprieve for the Mukesh Ambani group. Yesterday’s trades saw a sharp recovery at close to 6080 levels again because there were no trades at the lower levels, markets just waiting out the post taper reprise and increasing transaction costs for those creating shorts or withdrawing from their overweight Indian  portfolios, which saw no takers.

ING and OBC both report today consolidating the story of improving NIMs and a lrage profitable Asian market still delivering growth to incoming banks. A couple of measures deepening our presence in the Global Fixed income markets would do the Trick, if I were governor. Currency markets are back at under 62.50 levels for the Dollar.

Dr Reddy’s looks overpriced at these levels . HEro may also be ready to complete the black candle and get a big red score to end the week. Bajaj Auto will hold levels. Buy and Accumulate IDFC, Yes Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank at current levels. Stay away fro m construction cos. back on a dead cat bounce. Bharti, already up 2% yesterday can move up to 330-340 levels before next week closes. The Maruti short is about ready but will probably wait till Monday. Going in first precludes market operators from creating that position as hey are anyway prop. holders of the stok and are not using it for short collateral

BOI NII growth was stolid and the PAT hit should not hurt the stock sentiment desite the almost immediate post earnings reaction as the stock has been discounting its NPA woes a good six months of the rally that ensued in July 2013. IDFC results should se a muted reaction as its diversified businesses hold up and get ready for an aggressive 2014 ( The last three years have been bigger growth in the loan portfolios already) the stock offering great value at 90-91/-

Ashwini and Angel Broking are again fishing in troubled waters and most shorts should be avoided esp at 320 level son YES Bank

India Morning Report: Out; KPIT, Biocon, M&M Finl, L&T? In; Sun Pharma, HDFC

Of course the trade that earns is a good Bharti as ITC catches a breath at 322-326 levels and HUL tries to crowd the space after good results across the seas at its headquarters. However, positional trades on ITC are advised, we still like IDFC and Yes, ICICI Bank’s journey is a bit in the clear after HDFC’s straightforward increase in spreads to 220 points on the yield curve turning south across all points. A lot of “Sell on Results” shucked out in the pre open indicators (Call Auctions and if they are trustworthy? right now we are pretty stabilised on the morning indicators on bid and offer prices you”ll get in the market hours)

We would advise, that viewers and ET Now still learn to ignore Volume breakouts between 9:15 and 9:30 as the price uptick in that first flush is usually recovered with a correction easily assigned in markets in the midst of a positive rally. Thus we do not believe in the Larsen technicals either and they should rest this one esp with the bad prognosis. L&T’s dismal domestic scores preference in the Indian markets is a lagging Indicator for the Indian Economy and its being a Capex churn probably a function of the pipeline at best and payment collection habits not a pointer of the Economy returned to Normal that the markets are forcing on it.

Biocon is  agreat pick after the “Sell on Results ” shock,. At least it is apparent that new investors did not join the Biocon rush after results which are due today. Those Mid Cap IT stocks still in the ring, better have a story to tell with the PCR still not crossing into overbought signals but the market still tired at old highs and the 8% after fatigue for the Indian charts M&M results are 0% higher on NII in rural catchments. HDFC profit was up 12%.

Barclays, CLSA and GS are already tepid on L&T but these levels are definitely not the stock’s ultintisurfeitmate bottom. No sign of bulls there or the turnaroo. Similarily for Kotak, who cannot perform as a company but shorting it remains uncharted territory. Is it right, BEES ETFs are back in play? check the volume ludes. and check the bottomline as always. Chill pill for qualuudes?..an extra u to coin my own word

Indian Pharma remains the great big bet for this rally as its market characteristics have truly changed and the Indian players have ramped up on the business of generics at least with cheap strategies for the $200 mln molecules and more in case of First movers post patent removal.

SBI is still uncomfortable at 1650 and looks ripe for Sell on rallies at these levels again.  I’d pick up Bajaj Auto again in pair trades as the trading range bottoms out again, not so unlikely at 1900 levels itself. I for one am ready to add Glenmark and ICICI Bank to big trades right away but waiting for a confirmaiton and the 6320 cap likely remains

The AAP charts can probably prove pre-cognitive abilities as donations that peaked in the new year damped out a week before the (Somnath) Bharti chapters made a big event splash India bulls Home loans are back with INR 6.95 B and PAT at INR 3.95 B, Loan books of INR 390 B are hopefully in process of reaching a better denominator in a large unbanked market like India. Axis Bank could pick up where it left off but investors do not expect any NPA debacles in that neck of the woods, sufficiently loudly demarcated as out of PSU

In Policy matters, the CPI linked benchmark idea, we will assume , was another committee suggestion ( someone converted us, right?). Affordable accommodation units and Prop rights(garden variety TDRs) in Mumbai RE did take off but have not grown as a class.

In unlisted business, opening as a secular class in the Morning Report, AS in including both Global Corps and Unlisted PE business or the unincorporated merchants and Franchisee business we prefer Mike Fries in the Global Charts (Charter Comm – Liberty Global)than the local entry of frozen processed fries(McCain), and that is a definite final No from India for McCain as it follows in Gujarat after McDonalds’ merchant production for its restaurants . The price points will be out of reach and the consumption uneconomical for Vikas Mittal’s new effort. Walmart’s independent beginning on the other hand is another new victor of he Indian sweepstakes and should ramp up faster in the next 3-4 years. Amazon FCs are in Bangalore

Tata Global rush trade classifieds are back again but no corrections this month, unless someone starts up a maruti while its running!

Oh ya,  I have finally come around. India’s problem is/was feting Jim o Neil. It’s a wonder he came back despite betting bigger on China and biting a big fat Turkey. (I have to watch how much to put in the Morning ReporT)

zee entertainment below 2odma is a false and stock is a great investment. do not pair trade in US cash equities if and when you head there to advise or trade. stay invested in cash and speculate in f&o. rice exports at 2.3 MT in rice couldn’t possibly have peaked already did they? are the quota clamps back in place or no surplus production? krbl trades may follow real-time exports/orders in the next 2 quarters

Did you see Biocon’s brush with the NHAI in the Bangalore Mirror today? Taking medians out on NHAI highways is definitely a surefire way to asininely jugaad India’s hind out of global competition. Biocon sales (updating at 10 AM post Keki Mistry of HDFC) are a 7 B for the quarter and R&D spends seem still subdued because of other limitations at INR 1.02 B but none of that should count against the investment. Principal Global may end up showing us how corp governance and voice on the board are still a flexible parameter for India portfolios as we move towards harnessing and integrating the NDF currency markets into the mainstream And hey that Thomas Bata protege is still walking, so there’s no (h)urry!

O Gao, Jan Jan (ko Chhua) Janjivan(badla)

Ashwini contributing to his own sells by recommending 6300 put sells, that’s backslapping yourself twice over as Puts have anyway likely over priced themselves out of investors by today’s close and that does not make investing on te bull side defensible today. so the shorts are likely having a needless hope surplus till Friday in the pouring rain.

PSU Bank Dividends are more than justified, if the Banking Secy needs any props and tempting fate by linking to February Capital re-infusions and Banks’ demand for reduction of free ATM transactions per month should be denied aand the number of free transactions should be increased.

India Morning Report: Gold Loan Norms for Muthoot & Mannapuram, Infy at 3400

Markets at 6200. Nothing would seem to have changed during our 2 day break this week, but for the fact that markets after declaring tiredness have found the will to come back to 6200 from a dip , probably to catch some Deliverable trades in the wind down as the Shorts get their day but most are bought into the 6000-6300 range. Option ladders have given way to Bear/Bull spreads and cheaper strategies of any combination in OTM Calls ranging a 6200 with a 1:@ ratio call ( from namesake Amit) with 6300 ( neutral on cash) or  a similar strategy on puts at 5900 (ITM) sold to higher Puts bought near the range as the markets are not excessively bullish (6100-6200)

Meanwhile, true to last week’s draw ins to our short list, Sun Pharma and Lupin/Cipla/Aurobindo have taken off/ are ready for a big run discounted for the weakness of the rupee being their marker as the Rupee is at the bottom of the range at 62.1-62.4 alternately. Divis’ is a great pick and Cadila is still in but some market movers would put Glenmark on watch with profit booking in place. Ashwini is off Jubilant Food again for the same reason maybe, but he is trying Jai Corp today I managed to note. Aurobindo is still good but I fail to understand the hankering for Ranbaxy again with promoters from Japan raising the issue of misinformation and misgovernance publicly

In the Zee vs PVR vs Eros /BIG and the rest again I find the PVR cosmopolitan equation still daunting and Zee the only balanced out performer despite attempts by Sun TV and the sports czars like Sahara and Kingfisher. Private Equity has a chance to prove itself again in India in Entertainment, Media and Education, the Y sectors but as of now has come out only in select E Commerce venutures in over a decade

Muthoot and Manappuram would be great plays even after this first CB. As per the new guidelines, LTV has been rolled back to 75% allowing both to lend more on existing accounts and having also gained the RBI seal of approval for moderating portfolios.  Disbursals are still by cheque for high value cases ( Same INR 100,000 benchmark) Apparently Ownership Affidavits have specifically recommended by the RBI as NBFCs probably pressure customers /claim troubled custom for original receipts for Gold more than 20 gm

IT firms would probably end the correction as Infosys result day is now key with Infy at 3400 levels. Both Product platforms and Consulting have failed to take off for the new no. 3 of Indian IT. However buy in select Mid cap ventures ( for the same tired reason, MindTree is still an in) continues as the Rupee story has unfurled. The smart correction to 3480 may be safe but the range remains between 3420-3480  and any new rally pre-results would likely be sold back to these levels. Similarily the short on YES Bank (Mitesh) may again fail as Banks manage to boost their share outlook on Private sector and credit performance in this week after a very dull prognosis again prompted the pick by Mitesh Thakkar (TGT: 340) and others. YES will still be a good buy and IDFC is again available at 102 levels so both should be bought into at these levels. YES commentary would be key as Indusind retail portfolio gets colored by being mostly in the sharply down CV sector. ICICI Bank may not keep the elevated 1050 /800 levels in earnings season this quarterly review but will remain higher and be guarantors of Indian performance both in markets and in the overall Economy with IIP and GDP rates still subdued and inflation a big part of the continuing growth imperative

Except for trades on exceptional earnings and sell on news, select stock picking remains the order of the day, going into earnings season next week.  Infy for example will suffer if the promised margin expansion of 100 bp and higher guidance for the full year is not delivered with or without commentary on taking out the Executive council from the company’s governance model. Bajaj Auto may see new highs as it remains important in portfolios with new picks in the other Bombay car/auto maker M&M. Bharti and ITC continue to see some exits but have more or less become nerve centers of a trading move despite the expanding dichotomy between Mid-Caps and the Large Caps

India would be happy enough with $30 Bln stock of FDI in the Calendar year 2014 as well and marekt expectations do not include any redefining execution elements into the stolid infrastructure story nor any PSU ETF can bring bank PSU investors or the BJP euphoria in a hurry. T2 has been commissioned in MIL in time howeevr, taking capacities to 40 mln passengers per year, while KIA is already expended into T1A with an overall capacity of 25 Mln pass per annum. GVK in the meanwhile , tries the land monetisation plan first at MIA while GMR continues to consolidate international and national bids ( Hyd and Bangalore) in it aviation subsidiary, the only post MRT/Metro good news for the sector now four years into its relaunched modernisation drive, where BJP assumed it will get the mandate to do better, but it looks likely that the electorate saw it was equally impossible before the Election mania picks up (after the Vote on Account).

(Anyone wanting to edit the Morning Report is welcome to formally request myself and email the direction/editorial choice parameters as well as the time constraints)

India Morning Report: A GDP score of 4.8%, financial services up, tourism fading?, The Jet Etihad minority opinion(onion?)

Monsoon Clouds
Monsoon Clouds (Photo credit: Intrepid wanderer)

The GDP report was an easy one with Industrial production no longer  a riddle but  a low 2% still below potential as manufacturing remains muted. Services sector GDP could have been above 7% led by the revival in Banking and Financial Services and hence lending, however it was not just Hospitality sector, which is going thru a low in line with a Global slowdown, but also in Community and Personal & Social services that the GDP for the sector and thence the overall report was muted. Mining and Agriculture have recovered though expectations were probably higher in market watchers. Gold price for example have not really fallen from $1240 levels, supporting their way of a Hindu rate of growth/recovery like old days and furrowing my eyebrows while assessing if the recovery has indeed begun can actually remain muted after the 6 months markets are willing to wait

While utilities also jumped back , both Financial services and Utilities (Elect. & Gas) coming back to near double digit scores for Q2 FY14, the Community services cut could point to further pressure from Government spending coming down. The HSBC PMI for November has returned to a positive 51 ( 10.30 AM update)

Budgets for NREGA and other Welfare schemes have been cut with a reduction of INR 100 Bln in the rural development ministry and INR 50 Bln in the Ministry for  Human Capital but the current Fiscal Deficit target of INR 5.45 Trillion (Rupees Lakh Crores) has already been spent to 84% of the target in the Fiscal period from April to October, leaving the last four months exceptionally painful, even as public spending is up to nearly 30% more than the Planning Commission contributions in the budget or INR 600 Bln with the October deficit itself at INR 300 Bln.

While India’s Capex companies look outside India for elusive new orders, (L&T/BHEL) welfare spending will now taper off if deficit is to be reined in even as Electoral spending profligate and wilful, takes over for political equations that remain murky and public spats making the BJP/JD/Congress campaign closest to spaghetti /cesspools more recently associated with Banana republics/Southern partners in Euro(pe)

 However, with other reasons seen as impacting Banking profits the well timed thrust for Banking stocks is weaker this morning and the 6350 target itself may remain an elusive slow mountain but shorts also have time to mull and wait. A word of caution that might have filtered through earlier from us, the sector substitutes chosen , except for Crompton Greaves /Greaves Cotton ( just maybe!) remain almost as wild an imagination as 20 years ago when FII franchises and brokerages had  a hard time keeping the India story transparent or represented in Listed stocks

Markets might consider moving back after the news is traded to 6250 levels (GDP at 4.8%) further expectations of an even better Agri GDP cannot be relied upon but the India investment story rekindled in the post June rally is safe and thriving though on lower volumes till January and may not even engender a big jump back in the Rupee from 62 levels, waiting for the Q3 / December earnings season after Bonuses have been announced /distributed in MNC India

A jump trade in Private Banks incl ICICI Bank and YES Bank is probable in the afternoon, the other option being stronger infracos and we sill do not think Dabur and Marico can replace ITC and Bharti though HUL is on the other side of the trend as an almost defensive again with core inflation in control from the GDP arguments above and pricing power in retail extending to domestic pharma as well before the quintessential control from Government pushes its way in. Wonderfully, the Diesel decontrol is moving on nicely without a break as Diesel prices close up to 60 levels and the Oil ill discussions for this fiscal are probably over leaving the Energy companies in cahoots with the Metals on the strongly bullish stocks led by Tata Steel. Tata Motors and Maruti attempts to breakthrough last week, will be the genesis of the immediate correction(in consonance with Mitesh Thakkar , ETNOW)

The Jaswant Thada mausoleum in Jodhpur, Rajast...
The Jaswant Thada mausoleum in Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India in the early morning. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Idea may also benefit from the weaker spectrum prices as the government strengthens its revenue shortfalls with the Powergrid mega FPO going online tomorrow.

USD remains weaker, making bears at UBS and CLSA a worried lot ( if they have actually ut any money into biting the Rupee on their pessimistic prognostications) and Crude at its lowest has fully enjoyed the Rupee weakness, turning to 6000 at similar levels when it battled 4500 a quarter ago. So who is going to the first dozen to really move into rural, assuming the first three slots are HDFC Banks and the Automobile Finance companies that started in 2009? Yields may dip below 8.5% to the final top of this rally before stabilising around Governor’s further refinment of the maintenance policy for FY14 and FY15 as recovery is awaited

CCI okays Jet Etihad Deal

A lovely informed review of the Jet Etihad deal, on our favorite The Firm (CNBC) and other forums shows the combinations Commish, Anurag Goyal left in the lurch as the CCI went to great lengths to ignore trouble brewing from the deal. After the deal, Jet keeps 50% of share in flights from Delhi to Abu Dhabi and 55% from Mumbai while its dropping of Dubai means big trouble in the sector flying from Kochi/Trivandrum to Dubai where it had a 69% share. The Majority opinion assumes a 2 hour reach criteria to assume a single market across Abu Dhabi , Dubai and Sharjah, showing th limitations of  20 years of hyper growth having left in official mindsets especially as such ‘arcane’ topics are probably not as interesting a conversation in Delhi and Mumbai despite the attempt a t modernity

Road to the Monsoon
Road to the Monsoon (Photo credit: Karthick Makka)

India Morning Report: No Taper and Nifty on to 6100 levels

A rather unexpected reticence by the Fed, allowed Global markets to uncoil their expectations of a taper and the Indian Rupee opened at its best price of INR 61.5 today barely hours after the announcement. the shorts on banks disappeared overnight as did the opportunity in depreciation lit IT with the Banknifty finally moving 650 od d points to above 11000 today and the 7% increase in ICICI Bank to 14% in Yes Bank possibly still allowing steam in the rally to 6300+ levels and a long awaited rally in the banks with the liquidity measures likely to go away. (what if there’s no taper?)

Apart from the bigger damage to shorts on Banks, the rally has caught most by surprise and thus some may wait out for lower levels to start again, but stopping market enthusiasm at 6080 levels itself is likly to fail with the momentum of the event generated uncoiling allowing immediate 6300 levels. Also the taper remains on the horizon for the US Fed as it tries to tackle the question from a new structural cap to growth in the US and the  Rupee may be allowed to break below  to erase the damage since May

F1 Australia Grand Prix - Thursday
F1 Australia Grand Prix – Thursday (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Indian yields are back to 8.16% levels. ITC and  Bharti have continued investor fueled upmoves at 350 levels, while Sun Pharma and ONGC and the Energy companies rebound to 2010 levels. Investors also found the chances to get back into Hero Honda and Maruti, both of which may easily by rejected later for Bajaj Auto in the Auto/Two wheeler sector

The Rupee might close a little lower but above 62 till 4pm and in RBI trades after.

India Morning Report: 5550 and nose down, Banks give up consolidation

FO Update: Bifty(BankNifty) strangle could be a good sell so vol moves are up but one should stay away from buying bank puts individually or shorting banks per se. They are quite in line for a jump and won”t be characterised as the villains of this move

The day started well enough Banks shifting chairs with HDFC Bank and Kotak taking over the upside and ICICI Bank facing a small (less than 1%) correction and Axis Bank moving up smartly as well, but as we prognosticated, the Rupee is touchy and tus 5550 seemed like a top off, barely opening at 5573 before trending South. On the bottom again, the move is capped at 5400-50 and the Bifty could well stay above 9000 throughout esp if the Rupee manages to keep the bears happy at 67 levels itself, as the markets decide the new direction of the move in the rest of the Financial Year (Fiscal).

The Rupee has received considerable global attention it has yearned for and sellers have been keeping quiet not because of fundamentals or flows but for the attention alone. ( Any study ignoring other parameters and attending to the correlation with global fourth estate exposure would thus be able to prognosticate the new founts of pressure on the Rupee. Oil is going down and 4% GDP is post a not so tough Oil Bill prognostication at the umpteen downgrades that heralded the start of the week. IT is almost overvalued again, one windfall quarter per 25% loss in Rupee value (YTD :D)

GDP (PPP) Per Capita based on 2008 estimates h...
GDP (PPP) Per Capita based on 2008 estimates http://www.imf.org/ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

On the market performers, accumulation of a disordered undervalud opportunity variety has started making itself felt in Caital Goods companies and infracos equally as Reliance industries which may look to E&P approvals in 6 different fields. Thus the sectoral technical picture is additionally cluttering the fact that no policy decisions would be forthcoming till after May 2014.

Savings in the Oil ill are coming  from the 13% share of Iranian oil, which because of shipping lines and insurance issues, are unlikely to be raised. True to form, Irnians do not really want t o use Rupee payments made to buy Indian exports except for its rice and tea demand.

Auto sales jum is more a victory for the two wheelers again, Bajaj Auto recovering Exports to 144K ths month and domestic sales on breath with value #2 Honda (301K). Maruti’s jump back to 87,000 units is still a poor performance below its run rate of 100k cars on average  pre 2010 itself. M&M tractor sales have dropped to near ZERO at 14,000 r month and Hyundai has been wiped along with Tata Motors for all the improvements in traction at GM, Ford, Toyota and VW.

Glenmark Pharma is a good pick to start the mid cap ride. Yes Bank and IDFC should e among the non controversial movers and shakers as the markets operate in an unwilling tight  rang waiting for the Rupee pain to go away. Sun Pharma will bottom out above 500 levels and start on its promise again as it builds on the INR 1 T capitalisation. The September trade data for India is due in a week

I do have a couple of questions on the detailed NH survey on housing price trends released yesterday. The 670 mln sft inventory for example seems to be a little bit of an over estimate and prices in Bangalore ,Bombay and Delhi are unlikely to move down despite huge inventories in residential , affordable, commercial rental and commercial spaces overall

Also ATF prices ( 71k per kl in Delhi and 77k per kl in Mumbai) are probability going to  strain the almost barebones domestic aviation pricing again and UDF are up for renewal. These are likely to remain hygeine factors to the India story ( low growth high cost aviation and high inventory of property) because of obvious inelasticities in the real estate pricing and the elastic nature of demand, roving a sea of red for aviation in the last decade. Thus inflation fears are probably dead in the water with Oil and Gold moving down globally.

Metals esp Tata Steel is back in the Buy lists in this run which will probably peak immediately after mid 2014 till September 2014

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