India Morning Report: Energy Cos, FMCG follow into the bull segment in January

English: tata steel lake black and white effect
English: tata steel lake black and white effect (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The news of breaking thru to better levels in the next segment have started crystallising on expiry day as OMCs and  Tata Global catch up while Aurobindo is a strong candidate to become the trader sentiment fundng stock as it battles the challenges from a local branch of the US FDA in its new avatar(US FDA’s new avatar)

Divis’ is another if you think it needs a scratch to win the Pharma segment in 2014. However there still is significant (75% +) investment upside in stocks like Cipla, Lupin and even Sun and Dr Reddy even as they review their competitiveness in the blue sky territory (Ashwini/ET on Aurobindo) for their stock prices.

Mining and Metals are not going to get a broad rally and may sustain bear interest but Tata Steel and a few others are definitely heading for a better future, Jindal Steel on the flip side continuing into the nether. IOC  and BPCL could be strong picks, HPCL having compensated for the lack of interest within the sector in 2012.

The long stretch at 6200  now sees thinning out PSU bank trades and new investors looking for the non Quantum broking “hidden gems” i.e. analysed not in this block of 5 years but surviving the negative glare other trader favorites have been subjected to as Bank and Dealer trading rooms get increasingly traded out of the select short list making the back bone of the as always overall positive prognostication for the Indian Markets as a steady uptrend of more than 15% gain in 2014 has been divined for the overall markets. 

However the FMCG jump backs identified in Talwalkars, and Jubilant or even real estate newbies in listed trade like Prestige or earlier RKJ picks NCC have already shown their limited stamina in such rallies and the same applies to a McLeod Russel or any other such Midcap picks and Tata Global will probably lead a pack of 6-10 such winners . Others likely to be included in such a cross section of winners would be the winning infra trade from IRB, Lanco and even the blue chp pick IDFC,  and another from GVK, GMR and Reliance Infra on better leverage news in 2014. The ones rejected for quitting on the bank licence race or just trying include Shriram Transport and LIC Housing. ITC and Bharti are not good for the day but remain part of this segment of winners to provide fairweight to sucha trending portfolio unlikely to be able to depend on Maruti or Axis Bank (probably just because it was tired by traders thru excessive lay in 2011 slurring it as a bulwark of the bada$$ trader instead of India’s flagship trade) Punjab National Bank alone is making up for the required breadth in Banknifty underlying/components along with the usual volumes in SBI. Seemingly, Powergrid is also nearing a FII limit at its current aproved 24% part of the overall sectoral limit.

The Power NBFCs are good for the rush, HDFC Bank is not out of favor and REC and PFC continue to lead this other mrket spine overall, but the other spine/splines(if you read) would come back in Powergrid and GAIL. As mentioned earlier the L&T and BHELs (esp the latter) or the metal and mining Hindalco and Hind Zinc may not provide such an alternate portfolio enough weight to survive the daily storm in 2014

Also, on the overall, like Reliance in the earlier years from 2005-2010, one should stay away from a Kingfisher like future looming for Tata Motors as cash gets reinvested at luxe rices into JLR and it is fully matted in domestic markets

 

India Morning Report: TESCO gets in the door, Another rally on the brink and a few kinks in the Bank Armor

Whatever be the State of the Bank Champions, Banknifty has bottomed out at 11,200 effectively esp with HDFC Bank hollowing out the tube on a 2% cut in MSCI weight to just above 5%. Coming back to the fundamentals then, it’s a beautiful morning when Banks and lendees have to get into line for a little justice being served. Though ET very adroitly , slipped out of mentioning any of the technical line items by the NPA sub-Comm at RBI Headquarters, the NPA guidelines will go a long way towards getting the banks to wake up to a new, faster era where they cannot use just proximity to the promoter as cause for underwriting. Specific colour coding of the timeline to NPA forces a beautiful transparency onto the banking system.

Currently Banks are prone to getting CDR notices around the 90-day deadline when the loan assets sour into NPA and the current accounts with more than an INR 100 Lac overdraft exist in such plenty that they are not duly raised as line items fraught with default risk for the bank. RBI draft guidelines also propose red flagging the Promoters and Directors of such businesses that are prone to turn purple in 90 days from the first Default so they are not wont to hop from enterprise to enterprise or engage lending officers into such a scheme that encourages adverse selection.

Au Bon Pain logo.
Au Bon Pain logo. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

ET actually would be one such enterprise forever on the brink that has to prove its Financials and its intentions and has limited its own borrowing capacity but that may not be interfering with editorial ethics and it is not unlikely however that the same will be one of the discussions in this CDR friendly patch of Indian Banking’s jump across Futures and Fortunes from the casual officiousness of the nineties to the brisk professionalism with Corporate , SME and Retail borrowers in the 21 st Century post a global crisis

A last rate hike is coming and the rest can be entered in the post policy announcement today, in a few minutes as markets last without any cash trading in the first hour and some.

The IOC divestment is good news even as Markets drive the stock down to possibly the lowest realisaations from the stake sale. The Trizivir approval is coming through for Lupin while  the same USFDA has akso approved Lupin and four others including Sun and DRL for Cymbalta($5-6 Bln per year) generics in the US domestic market (anti depressants ) Sun’s SPARC lost a generic application (LV/CNBC18)

Auchan
Auchan (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

IDFC and ICICI Bank as mentioned yesterday have righted the price trend amidships. If you are looking  at other rate sensiives suriving the coing high interest regime and leading thus this India recovery, apart from ITC whose core business showcases highly inelastic high demand for its products any consumer staple business especially in Foods is an equally good proxy as Food inflation will continue strongly thriu 2014 whether rate hike or not and GDP growth restrictions continue to bracket very few non performers except the NPA ridden PSU Banks. NPAs in the system rightly would correctly jump to 16% of the assets in the high rate scenario

And yeah, I belong to the minority that likes the sharp reaction from India to US trapping of Devyani Khobragade. Even PPP does not cover half the gap between Service costs in the US and in India

TESCO right timed its entry apparently in JV with Trent. The London based retailer is a welcome substitute for Walmart in a touchy state -Center source of friction in an iportant policy hot pocket. TESCO lands in Maharashtra and Karnataka with its first two Large Format stores ( though thyey are really bigger than the Auchan Hypermarket format) Other non stock market related news for retail came from the otherwise listed Spencers’ owners RP-Sanjiv Goenka who are taking Bangalore’s own Au Bon Pain national. They are the first Master Franchise looking to own all the coming India ‘stores’ of the Coffee/Sandwich chain (QSR). Apparently national footprint for Au bon Pain entails more 1800 sft investments whereas they have rationalised on size in home district of Bangalore except for the flagship restaurant on MG Road

The Bank Policy Date goes by without a change in rates as the RBI advises against an over reaction to the good news while they wait for data

India Morning Report: The mechanics of T-2 trading, USFDA, GMP withdrawal

In the spirit of all that is wrong with overseas monitoring of drug manufacturers and the known woes of overseas drug manufacturers quality plans, Wednesday started with a bang for Wockhardt as the GMP certification was withdrawn by European agencies last week and USFDA followed up with an Import Alert. Apart from hurting an export rich sector of the much tarnished Indian Economy, it remains an isolated play in the day’s trading.

However despite ranging puts and increasing percentage of the next series participation in Options etc now appearing towards the end of the series, the waning decisiveness of the Nifty may continue into December as markets deign to rally intraday and close above 6100 as Monday forecasted an easy reach for the same. Slow and sluggish markets despite the strong rate recovery action in the bond markets in the illusion of changing from old benchmark to the new has kept shorts in business. Markets are on wait before pushing the Banknifty in the last two sessions back to 11k levels. The Banknifty levels are definitely encouraging for a rollover induced good beginnings to the historically over priced next series (December in this case)

However back to things that can be read as making sense and are a watermark for the next events in India’s robust Financial markets, seldom confused with the Fragile Five before the preponderence of retail investor targeting left only Institutional actors in play over emphasising index trades as the only safe flows.

The December series again will continue the experimentation with sectors trying to avoid known good plays in Energy and Metals as brokers and agents seem to have set a high benchmark of participation while trying a little of this and that and that will impact rollovers as Index options go out of play and passive funds remain shortlisted on a very high ground with ITC, Bharti, IDFC and Banks like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and YES alongwith Axis Bank and LIC Housing Fin.

Traders are also unlikely to let LIC Hsg off without it reaching below 200 levels so buying should be attempted only around 197 levels and if 196 breaks then 192-4 levels. REC, PFC and PTC have also made investor lists only though they execute perfect range trades between 188-221 for REC and corresponding levels in other scrips. Cipla and Sun Pharma remain good scrapbook material for traders too and trading will return to the banks if robust flows are to be had in the markets while FMCG, Pharma and Energy and Metals present strong sectoral opportunities.

Despite the new midcap entrant Just Dial and Jyothi Labs where prices are robust if not trading volumes, Midcaps remain a Notice to stay away from India with the inability of research to overcome stop and start news flow and sensitivity to just one factor in most individual midcaps that keeps money from following the opportunity

However the mechanics of the T-2 trade, remain to find the level at which to screech into the next series optimum levels or in more mature months with broader flows optimum entry levels which usually allow shorts a large window to stand in, but once they are caught playing with fire, there would be no stopping this market having just woken up to an Indian recovery around the corner. Investment flows looking to be the harbinger however is a cruel fallacy esp as it lets investors on to the Capex companies like L&T and BHEL which in line with Global conditions are nowhere near their recovery with flagging order books and delayed execution.

Remember Modi is only one of the shortlisted candidates in the POTY sweepstakes at Time Magazine (Person of the Year). Investment positions should continue to be advised strongly in IDFC, ITC and the selected Banks you trade. Also Tech MAhindra may be an easy exit from MSCI too after an easy entry this week, within the next 6 months and markets wshould note missing fundamentals in pushing volumes into any such specific counter as it brngs a laser focus on to the players, used to making a mover out of a Satyam or a Rolta. Most money flows have safety in following Corporate Governance reports and big contract losses do not help as the commodity marke flexibility does not spill over to equities or even Real estate any longer.

Lupin, Cadila and Glenmark continue to get quick drug approvals and also make the cut for bigger investments

Midcap Select: Opto Circuit ( At home with your heart )

Heart during ventricular diastole.
Image via Wikipedia

The electronic patch device produces the report mailed to the hospital from home after 72 hours. market surveys used by Opto circuit use a $500 mln market size as basis.  This mysense heart device was approved last week.

Wayward/Baseless revenue estimates based on optimistic foretelling by the industry as is the wont in the last 10 years of India’s new product introduction in the west apart the company could definitely do with $ 20 mln in extra Dollar revenue with the currency run expected to continue.

Opto does not have any liabilities in Dollars and may convert this dollar revenue to good profits. Its other product business revenue streams were locked last year in Japan

The company is not getting good yields in some invasive device businesses where it needs more investor partners,and wants to list in the next six months with existing PE partners where it can As told to ETNow (inthe brief) the company wants to roll out further devicess for FDA approval in the next  2 years

Midcap Select: Opto Circuit, Adani Ent

OPTO:

Opto got a first device FDA approval in the USA thrui its Cardiac Science Corp subsidiary. It can now invest in marketing of its retail Wearable Holter Cardiac Monitors

ADANI:

Apart from being close to outbid on the LNG unit in Gujarat Gas (65% stake + 26% open offer = 91.5% of $1

A Meghwal woman in the Hodka village, north of...
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bln+ Valn premium on sale) Adani also commissioned a largest of its kind 40 MW solar plant in Kutch in less than 6 months. Kutch is on the northwest coast of India in Gujarat, also where Adani’s port and Tata’s Mundra power plant are located.

India Earnings Season: A flurry of losses IOC, Ranbaxy

Graph showing Indian rupee and U.S. dollar exc...
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Ranbaxy’s brilliant $126 mln loss in Foreign exchange as it has not yet settled with FDA days before it starts its exclusivity period on Lipitor. The long term contracts , much like the State’s Oil contracts are going to cost India dearly..as can be visibly seen this quarter. Even 75-100% hedging of receivables by Big Four IT like HCL Tech will be something to shed oil on, fueled by the others willing to run Double or Quits options on Rupee;’s appreciation again. The Rupee has already crossed 50 and with no state intervention and all trade flows mapped out to outflows, India is singularly vulnerable as runs on Europe wipe out investor capital and militarily active China remains a sad trade option at best

Indian Oil

IndianOil produced a giant $1.5 bln loss at INR 74.56 bln, bucked by State Oil procurement expenses of INR 957.88 bln for the quarter, a huge figure even when sales rose by 15% year on year as the subsidy bill becomes an alarming figure for ONGC, IOC and the state that has to decide how much it will be able to afford.

Ranbaxy

Spurred by the FX loss (pun intended) Ranbaxy reported a INR 4.65 bln or $93 mln loss for the quarter, wiping its slate clean of all evil capitalist trappings. The Japanese owned Pharma major has sales of almost a $95 mln in North America without its exclusivity prd sales from Lipitor-generic-X out of a total of INR 20.27 bln or $405.4mln. Europe is another 16.3% of Sales at $66mln or INR3.3 bln (Figures courtesy livemint.com (mint)) Domestic sales grew slowly but remained a cool $103 mln in India

PFC

Comparatively, India’s slow and ugly Power sector continued to spur a large expansion and good NIMs in Power lending as PFC grew 24% to sales of INR31.45 bln even as profits were limited to INR4.19 bln or $84mln REC infact managed to keep NIMs stable while PFC has grown Income and old loans apparently may have been sloughing off than restructuring issues for its customers(lendees)

PTC

Sister company PTC meanwhile could not hold on to Sales reporting INR 23.69 bln in Sales and a lower INR 355.7 mln in profits, but the company has not done much from its year ago portfolio yet

CESC

The RPG owned Calcutta utility had trouble in profitability too much in lin e with industry as it still managed a profit of more than $22 mln or INR1.1 bln (25% lower than FY11 September 2010) as Sales grew marginally to INR 127 bln or $2.5bln

OPTO

Opto is a great buy as it jumped profits on to INR 1.21 bln from 0.77bln last September with Sales of INR 5.56 bln a healthy margin and assured sales on contracted export deliveries till 2015 Sales grew 70% and Profits 56%. (A lot of help from myiris.com for the figures)

A wow Healthcare surprise | Advantage Results season

Ranbaxy Laboratories
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Cadila beat a lot of MNC competition with reports stamping their approval on PAT growth 50% yoy for the quarter boosted by on time forex profits of $45million and a revenue tick of $275 million almost twice the size of a GSK Pharma quarter of $150 million revenues, Cadilla scoring $30 million in profits at 10% NPAT and GSK Pharma at almost 10% with a $1.5 mln NPAT. The Pharma lot look surefooted and steady even as the Phase I winners wave by with pressures on Volumes, FDA disapprovals and new Excise regulations esp at Ranbaxy and Dr Reddy. The sector and its allied winners in Biotechnology are increasingly getting good vibes for taking revenues to the next level of $10 bln each from the current park of $1 – $ 4billion for the year just a tad ahead of the auto ancilliary specialists with $200 mln revenues etc. Emerging Markets should now steam roll some bigger numbers from this sector and we’re hoping!

:Original raster version: :Image:Food and Drug...
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