The news of breaking thru to better levels in the next segment have started crystallising on expiry day as OMCs and Tata Global catch up while Aurobindo is a strong candidate to become the trader sentiment fundng stock as it battles the challenges from a local branch of the US FDA in its new avatar(US FDA’s new avatar)
Divis’ is another if you think it needs a scratch to win the Pharma segment in 2014. However there still is significant (75% +) investment upside in stocks like Cipla, Lupin and even Sun and Dr Reddy even as they review their competitiveness in the blue sky territory (Ashwini/ET on Aurobindo) for their stock prices.
Mining and Metals are not going to get a broad rally and may sustain bear interest but Tata Steel and a few others are definitely heading for a better future, Jindal Steel on the flip side continuing into the nether. IOC and BPCL could be strong picks, HPCL having compensated for the lack of interest within the sector in 2012.
The long stretch at 6200 now sees thinning out PSU bank trades and new investors looking for the non Quantum broking “hidden gems” i.e. analysed not in this block of 5 years but surviving the negative glare other trader favorites have been subjected to as Bank and Dealer trading rooms get increasingly traded out of the select short list making the back bone of the as always overall positive prognostication for the Indian Markets as a steady uptrend of more than 15% gain in 2014 has been divined for the overall markets.
However the FMCG jump backs identified in Talwalkars, and Jubilant or even real estate newbies in listed trade like Prestige or earlier RKJ picks NCC have already shown their limited stamina in such rallies and the same applies to a McLeod Russel or any other such Midcap picks and Tata Global will probably lead a pack of 6-10 such winners . Others likely to be included in such a cross section of winners would be the winning infra trade from IRB, Lanco and even the blue chp pick IDFC, and another from GVK, GMR and Reliance Infra on better leverage news in 2014. The ones rejected for quitting on the bank licence race or just trying include Shriram Transport and LIC Housing. ITC and Bharti are not good for the day but remain part of this segment of winners to provide fairweight to sucha trending portfolio unlikely to be able to depend on Maruti or Axis Bank (probably just because it was tired by traders thru excessive lay in 2011 slurring it as a bulwark of the bada$$ trader instead of India’s flagship trade) Punjab National Bank alone is making up for the required breadth in Banknifty underlying/components along with the usual volumes in SBI. Seemingly, Powergrid is also nearing a FII limit at its current aproved 24% part of the overall sectoral limit.
The Power NBFCs are good for the rush, HDFC Bank is not out of favor and REC and PFC continue to lead this other mrket spine overall, but the other spine/splines(if you read) would come back in Powergrid and GAIL. As mentioned earlier the L&T and BHELs (esp the latter) or the metal and mining Hindalco and Hind Zinc may not provide such an alternate portfolio enough weight to survive the daily storm in 2014
Also, on the overall, like Reliance in the earlier years from 2005-2010, one should stay away from a Kingfisher like future looming for Tata Motors as cash gets reinvested at luxe rices into JLR and it is fully matted in domestic markets
- India Morning Report: The “growth-inflation dynamic” is getting flustered by the rates (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: The gradual Taper encourages a rally, India indescribable yet? (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Global FMCG majors bet big on India despite slowdown (news.in.msn.com)
- India Morning Report: Another US FDA bird hit, US GDP caught with high inventories, Markets broadening base (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: Record low PCRs mean a bottom at 6000 (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: Bad Boy shorts in more trouble, Rupee at 62.50 ‘lows’ (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: A sudden rush for crossing 6350, nipped again (awardz.wordpress.com)
- “Emerging Market Slowdown to Last for Years” says CEO of World’s Third Largest FMCG Company (globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com)