India Morning Report: I wonder if this freewheeling, Really is an enlightening thing (Dubious , Vikram Seth, NDTV 2013-12-14)

English: syndicates @ work
English: syndicates @ work (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Homage to Sec 377 controversies apart, it also expresses the universal angst and one shot propositions(Sec 377) that refuse to delineate the difference between the Buys and the Sells and the Holds and the currency and the coin) SELL THAT MIDCAP now (and come back another day)

The markets tried again in the Pre Open today and will sooner than later again snare buyers on a higher price near 6200 but till that happens, Bulls having just defended 6000 levels in the Option premium market, not underwriting 6100 or even 6200 that they had started last Monday on, it leaves an uncertain gap in between.

Market buying will of course definitely ride a 6.5% WPI data in November riding the gain from Core industries lasting around 2% for almost the entire year now, and Primary Articles skewing the deal with a 15% tick, also underwriting that retail inflation is not wont to come down at all in the coming two years of a changed fiscal and political regime either. In India, we follow the natural order of things, yes and in the long run we are all dead , definitely, but increasing rates because Onions can finally be sold for  a better price, it is more autistic than you think and once we are part of a Global Bond index, such follies will get a force multiplier we do not worry about / or disavow when we make that policy.

GSK deal again caught buyers on both sides even as a 30% arbitrage was available on the GSK Pharma stock which closed on Friday at 2400 levels as GSK Consumer tumbles from speculators exiting at 4500 levels. Both scrips are closer to the offer at 2950 and 3500 respectively in the pre 9.30 trades on Monday. Any open offer in GSK Consumer will unlikely exceed 3400 and may even be lesser after the INR 64 Bln is spent on GSK Pharma. Apparently the Midcap deal buying Elder off Torrent leaves Elder with the low margin API business and Torrent stock is unhappy about the value bought over while Elder stock is not so happy about he cash coming in/debt closing out.

Anyway, before we proceed, the other starting up sub text today was Sell the Midcap. A sure fire winner of a strategy given the markets vacillation, as those who are Hungry are bound to die till they are served with Capital inputs and Market responses that allow a rally

Wednesday’s rate hike will probably peak out the ill advised strategy ad retail inflation will continue to iron out the poor gap even if the government can’t spend and hopefully no party feels like lifting the Gold curbs too soon. Europe’s death spiral should wean out some hot money before he Euro peak s out but the Dollar will continue south and thus the taper threat will pass off unnoticed by the non market watchers in the middle of the week. Did you notice the flurry of big bank settlements that have passed us by in November?

India will act decisively to set the global context in 2014 reflecting the markets outperforming in 2014 while US markets follow tamely yet maintain last year highs. The Europe sell off about to begin soon, will leave us unaffected giving the world another chance to dig theimselves in, but ignored india will manage with another $20 Bln – $40 Bln in portfolio adds in 2014 as US Bond yields rise to meet the challenges of a real world.

Also Ashwini is a the cusp of a rash with all his misplaced bear picks again, and you should buy into the banks now. I go with SS(CNBC18) decision on the trading rink, markets waiting at 6175 at 9:35 for the confirmation that 6150 bottom holds and markets will move up thence. All that shucking, it is finally closed so the good guys we all noticed are set to move up ( and no IT moves are expected from here),. ALso, th last headline PSU Bank investors are not coming back, holds.

HDFC Bank ticked in the early bull report on Advance Tx, but then HDFC Bank was always expected to headline bigger growth numbers than the rest and it may well be the contraindication leading India Inc to slower revenues for the third running quarter

Any others eager to read the Drama Queen by Suchitra Krishnamoorthi, it’s a good idea this broadbasing of Indians’ views on their own history

Achha, what’s the deal – Jaspal Bindra wants clarifications on Subsidiarisation? HSBC, StanC < Citi and that other, will they ever come back in India and China retail or is it just Transaction Banking now

India Morning Report: Yes this is the bull run in progress :)

Though it would not seem like it to you and me and even those who were lucky to get into the hallowed portals of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs before us, this is a continuing bull run ith just too many interruptions and cavilling to ignore. Witness how there are not more than one nay sayer in a crowd of 50 commentators. Witness also how market traders like Ashwini Gujral and SS keep trying to put out short picks every now and then but come back empty handed at 3:30 pm. Also witness how the ruepee’s weaknness making the IT sector attractive means suddenly all other fundamentals are “poof” vanished in the air. Importantly, as someone caught me on telly today, ( I opened the screen to TV18 as he wasz speaking the subject) , portfolio inflows are strengthened by Rupee’s unbroken move towards the lowest on record 56 levels and odollar sales are washed up by the high tide of month end Oil purchases and the burgeoning trade deficit as is usual for our second half of the fiscaal, and for the second year running, we follow up on daily tidbits of how India will no t be able to manage the fisc target but the bullishness remains on call.

Securities and Exchange Board of India
Securities and Exchange Board of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Did i cost you a fortune? I may have because as a single hand I was unable to suitably direct you on big time nbullish calls like Stride Arcolabs which has always been an emergent blue chip on my card like much of the remaining sector including the crop of MNC pharma led by GSK which as known for ages is going in finally for a fresh buyback to bring its stake up to the now standard 75% for MNC players in line with SEBI requirements of a public company. But I do not regret sending more the way of IDFC who also has an active PE arm in non infraco projects apart from its starting blocks it purloined from StanChart’s Mutual Fund in India.

On global cues, both Europe’s new Greek agreement and China’s slowdown had nothing new to offer for global portfolio investors and hot money trade fronts while FDI related or otherwise Policy execution remains on hold in India that also been duly discounted by the market aand any pyrotecnhnics by flailing oppositions and Catalonian adventures are unlikely to firm up as a new trend into the mix, favoring the recovery of Europe into a mild recession and now despite growth in UK and Germany while the fiscal cliff seems to be ready to become a new non event yet someone should not get their hopes all up too soon.

Gold and Commodities look unwilling to make a move but the Dollar is not getting any stronger and the Rupee’s weakness is another capitulation to current deficit demands by our policy makers as our champions of growth budgeting find themselves unable to get to the next watermark or making a stand in execution or in substantial politics.

And Hindustan Copper is back to 155 as the price was marked in the Offer for Sale, letting investors keep hope in the IPO process ( with due discounts and ready profits without issues devolving on others – excepting LIC’s coffers that are now an unbridled part of India’s budget machine)

 

India Earnings Season: Dr Reddy’s redeems the sector’s performance

Dr Reddy addressing at Patent Symposium
Image via Wikipedia

You know Healthcare is beating other sectors this year..

But here in India, Ranbaxy and Sree Aurobindo have led results based depths for the entire market while MNCs continue to showcase $200 million  odd sales wshether it be Merck of MSD, Glaxo of GSK, Pfizer even after sign up s with Biocon and then Sun Pharma itself which like Abobott find Piramal Healthcare is trying hard to diversify into bigger segments

Despite impending regulations making its imported APIs expensive to use in domestic best sellers and its production snafus of Q4, DRL reported great 23% and 101% yoy growth in Sales and Profits  on a consolidated basis to ready itself for a better FY12 with $500mln in sales bringing a marging of 16%+ to $84 mln profits keeping it the Top 3 heal. Lupin’s results continue to show a plateau but the management is greatly appreciated by investors and analysts, Stride Arcolabs a sure winner and Cadila consistently shining in results. Orchid Chem has had some volatile performance swings but along with Glenmark seem to be good scrips to stay with and push esp with FDI and M&A control regulations changing for the lucrative sector soon

Biocon
Image via Wikipedia
Logo of Pfizer Incorporated.
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A wow Healthcare surprise | Advantage Results season

Ranbaxy Laboratories
Image via Wikipedia

Cadila beat a lot of MNC competition with reports stamping their approval on PAT growth 50% yoy for the quarter boosted by on time forex profits of $45million and a revenue tick of $275 million almost twice the size of a GSK Pharma quarter of $150 million revenues, Cadilla scoring $30 million in profits at 10% NPAT and GSK Pharma at almost 10% with a $1.5 mln NPAT. The Pharma lot look surefooted and steady even as the Phase I winners wave by with pressures on Volumes, FDA disapprovals and new Excise regulations esp at Ranbaxy and Dr Reddy. The sector and its allied winners in Biotechnology are increasingly getting good vibes for taking revenues to the next level of $10 bln each from the current park of $1 – $ 4billion for the year just a tad ahead of the auto ancilliary specialists with $200 mln revenues etc. Emerging Markets should now steam roll some bigger numbers from this sector and we’re hoping!

:Original raster version: :Image:Food and Drug...
Image via Wikipedia

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