October Auto Sales (India 2011)

India’s festival time auto sales were expected to take October 4 wheeler sales to 170,000 after consecutive months below the 150k mark Maruti’s market share has dipped to below 40% and October has seen only 55600 Marutis

In the meantime Ford has improved its share by 31% in the first 10 months and VW, Toyota are also

Maruti Suzuki A Star

growing at the expense of Maruti by an even higher percentage on a smaller base Ford has improved sales from 77k till Oct 2010 to 102k for the same 10 month period in 2011

Latest reports

Maruti     : 55,595 (51k domestic)
Hyundai : 33,000 (excl. exports)
TataMo  : 24,000 (Nano 3696 up 26%)
Ford       : 11,000?
GM        : 10,200 (static , just caught up with Ford volumes in the last 6 months)
VW, Toyota: High growth on 3k-5k base may catch up with GM sooner than you think

It looks like October tunrned out a good month for personal consumption spend and durables (unsecured  loans) as Autos stayed below 150k sales.

2 wheelers have been growing at 20% y-o-y while Car sales are down at least 15% year on year and are not expected to improve soon

Hero reported another 512k and Bajaj another 320k having worked out its kinks in the UP factory

Maruti’s dealer surveys show that canceling customers have been walking into Toyota Liva and VW dealerships who brought out new models after June

To Munsiyari on a Maruti, Uttarakhand.
Image via Wikipedia

The retail consumption level off: Hero Honda perks up

Hero Honda rider
Image by Danny McL via Flickr

After sifting thru monthly Auto sales nos. ith great aplomb in 2010 and much muted in 2011, we did warn you that the Indian retail consumption story and the car sales are no longer tracking and are way behind the $5 Tln chinese economy where $2.5 Tln is the Consumer component. India’s $700 mln consumer consumption yet relies a great deal on two wheeler sales though and while Honda now sells 100k a month on its own, its partnership with Hero Honda was always the leader in the motorcycle segment since its advent in 1991.

Its quarter’s sales are up to $1.4 bln ( Rs 56.38 bln) up 33% yoy Profit Margins remained in the double digits (<10%, but almost there) with a Net of $139.5 mln. Its Apr-Jun sales were 1.31 mln motorcycles as reported earlier this week(BS Motoring) with June coming at 512k much a consistent 20% jumpp ¬†year on year despite Honda moving on into an independent motorcycle producer, which terminates their active role in the JV later this year

Hero honda did give an ant i indication before the uptick when the markets opened and we will look for whats amiss here too as we adopt the Indian Auto and Motorcycle consumption story as a leitmotif of our India research here

The retail consumption level off – Hero reports lower Q4

Hero Honda Passion
Image via Wikipedia

Profits year on year are down 16% and the auto number s for March have definitely scared observers as well. The profit deceleration is hihger than expected ( misses Bloomberg poll estimates by 2% ) Sales growth numbers are respectable yoy like for others as Bajaj Auto and Maurti, Hyundai ( even yoy pretty bad)

India just does not have the profile to switch to SME players in this age and till the dollar gets to levels of below Rs 40 to a Dollar, the Trillion Ruipee EV companies are likely to be good enough for PE or individual global portfoliso. Index ETFs are anyway 75% of the FDI with $1 bln per month likely to continue. disposable incomes allowed food and fuel inflation without concerns yet, but going forward the larger imported inflation and the transmission to manufacturing and the retail demand curves ( durables, autos, services) have been the immediate market concerns that need facts to displace the pessimism

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