India Morning Report: And that my dear is how a normal consolidating market looks like..

Singapore Flyer
Singapore Flyer (Photo credit: chooyutshing)

 

Unfortunately, the last two months were not normal for the markets at all, with most shorts alive yet unable to close the deal and finally breaking the buck whence this detail of markets opening and staying around yesterday’s levels instead of retracing everything is the real consolidation thing which should invite cattle herders in droves to this overtly spiritually marketed FDI and portfolio destination. As mentioned other Asia destinations are not so active right now and I am not aware of the depth of the new market in Burma (Myanmar) which is increasingly going to be a Hail Mary target for unregulated PE money (Hail Marys work more often than you think)

Meanwhile another big IPO from China and a portfolio divestment in Thailand should be enough motivation for any serious Singapore business to rush in now before the Hongkong dragons take over Asia hub again. Right now they are increasingly becoming the Yuan market in more ways than one.

Back on Indian governance, it is better than most other Asian republics and yet resistant to a full hearted embrace for foreign investors but that apart, there are now lesser differences that matter than depth and liquidity of the Capital markets even with BSE and MCX adding to the mix, the first few months of multiple exchanges not marred by flash crashes or other exchange level black swans in any other developed market geographies either like London and New york. Shanghai, Sydney and Singapore continue to look for diversification of asset classes and business with others like OMX, Nikkei or the myriad European exchanges led by Deutsche Borse and for india the local FII market in Luxembourg which still provides some investors to the myriad QIPS though India does not play with 144A placements and jurisdictions as often anymore.

Ofcourse after a buoyant two years Emerging market ETFs are again fighting for share with High yield and sub prime business and also we do not get any new allocations evena s the larger chunks sunk in China weigh down anchor on foreign investors amidships and the high  5900 market isjust waiting for another news event driven buzz ( I don’t know how that what we do here is different from a flash crash really and we do not even allow HFT or any pother program trading to trigger off a steeper slope into the selloff!) when the retail FDI vote happens today or tomorrow.

 

 

 

India Morning Report: And here we are 5850 and nary a huff puff break!

The early morning run for the Nifty has panned out really well, with the 5850 mark looking as enticing aas the hitherto 3800 mark(5600 from August) and no employment for traders yet again on the upswing or as now most would like to say in the week of consolidation after it ends the day after expiry without new brilliant moves of mathematical elasticity of direction brought about by Expected returns of each stock. algorithmic/Program trading however is different yet and with new regulation pon HFT preceding other countries’ attempt at controlling the HFT beast, Goldman Sachs trading rooms and that o f JP Morgan will continue to resemble SOHO offices trading the solitary Gilt in action.

The OMO scheduled as promised after a big break that definitely helps the cause at many ratings analysts’ desks is still required though for what would have been $3 B but is considerably depleted in Dollar terms . Similar problems with credit growth data also top up your and my morning cuppa as the absolute growth of INR 300-500 B every fortnight is now going to be a below par performance especially for one of Asia’s Top 5 equity markets of 2012 and probably the Top 3 in 2013 as Phils and Thailand are probably over the hill from all the buying un abated since china’;s slow poke began in an atmosphere of  European banks’ left with Asia as the only profitable franchise in 2010 and continuing through their liquidity squeeze on Asia and post the ne liquidity moves of 2012.

The Euro is king right now among currencies and that means the Gold and Silver tunder will be missing for some more time though buying has begun. China’s industrial demand for silver had thoughtfully started increasing this quarter but accordding to somenon conventional indicators china is still a long way away from a beneficial breeze starting to blowin new custom even as impports continue to rise optimistically keeping retail sales steady on month.

Back home in Mumbai, Bharti infratel IPO is finally up and running and seeming there is more clarity in the CDS market for insurance cmpanies as well which could be the leather for the leather hunt required in fixed /income markets to keep the comeback int he currency markets esp for those longer term rupee investors which have stuck around after banks withdrew fromtheir Bullish rupee positions just last quarter albeit a bit too soon. Despite market movers, I am not very fine with the move in Canara Bank or other PSU banks that are keeping the Banknifty abreast. Its pure sacrilege of the same variety that brought the house down last time. NMDC should be a good issue and good pricing will bring good treasury gains to banks supporting Divestment OFS issues like the one priced at 155 last fortnight

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