India Morning Report: Standing on a vertical ride at closing..

NSE Logo
NSE Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Does not leave much to imagination or prescience after the Nifty travelled the Vertical Flights of Fantasy to 5950 levels before closing gong struck at the NSE terminals and the soon to be public BSE that the markets are a settled lot in the morning and a final big correction is being ramped up in commentary to a big killa round hopefully over 6100 levels .

That means the Nifty and the exchange has another big weekly move  and probably not immediately next week though looking at the eagerness with which the House of Elders vote on FDI brought to profit taking it is obvious the wait and consolidation has been a long one even for FIIs or as some mention, most of the floating stock is yet gone.

In true indian market fashion I can duly see without undue overanalysis that it leaves opportunities like Jet Airways and Orchid Pharma ( as it negotiates with late lenders like IDBI Bank) for a grand capital appreciation burst. it also shows that markets have matured to the virtual exclusion of retail players though US markets can still claim to over90% retail invested in equities , but one guesses thru discretionary and non discretionary forms of institutional and hedgie managers.

As mentioned yesterday, globally alpha is back in vogue meaning India is likely to remain in currency and the market has thus that upside led by players like YES Bank and other private banks wwith double digit growwth left in this rally for them and other blue chips for the mass of your portfolio to settle down with.

Ramesh Damani looks to be in good form as always making the next level of case for a big correction for indian / DII buyers after the likes of Ashwini and SS failed to get markets to see any worthwhile correction in the meantime but it is probably time to see some institutional buyers move or rather churn their portfolios to the new limelight , even though they might feel like still holding on to Indian Pharma and even dabble in fiscally imprudent PSE banks on their indian panel’s whims.

Stride Arcolab continues its run it missed last week as Maruti and Baja Auto stay with Biocon to catch more idle profits on the take.

 

India Infrastructure: HSBC, ADB funding to bring up $ 1 bln debt fund

India’s first infrastructure debt fund is well on its way with the $1 bln corpus mooted by IIFCL successfully

Infrastructure improvements
Image by Scottish Government via Flickr

siloed for a launch of the fund in February 2012. the first fund will include IIFCL participation to 26% or $260 mln only as Asian Development Fund and HSBC chip in with $250 mln each for a 25% stake. LIC and IDBI get to participate in the fund with $140 mln and $100 mln each

As a mutual fund the Infrastructure Development Fund, first proposed by the MOFFIN in the 2011 Budget, will invest in debt of the infracos , allowed 90% by its mutual fund charter

The government is infusing the INR 10 bln required by IIFCL the first of India’s public infrastructure funding vehicles set up by the Indian Budget of nearly 6 years back and has failed to tak eoff while Pwer finance companies also set up by the govt and IDFC in the private sector have

500 Rupee note with Gandhi on it
Image by nimboo via Flickr

picked up the funding requirements and turned in a few successful projects each with a good interest margin on each sale.

The debt fund is part of the 12th plan charter to ensure at least INR 1 Tln (Rs One Lakh Crores) in infrastrcture funding primarily via PPP projects if required and ensuring Private participation to close the Infrastructure Financing gap for the country.. India’s overall financing gap coul dbe as large a INR 2.5 Tln or 4% of its GDP

Banks: Credit up another 31,500 Cr (INR 315 bln)

The fortnight ended December 16 data shows expansion in credit continues at much the same pace reaching INR 4.26 Tln or $82bln approx. having started a w-o-w uptrend since the last week of October. Deposits though shrunk by INR 365 bln, a large sum, even as Advance Tax payments for Ecember were due. Rates of Savings and NRE deposits have been increased over this last week of the year with ICICI, IDBI joining ranks at a 9.25% NRE rate

India Earnings Season: IDBI Bank results, September 2011

IDBI Bank results

 

Though we have published in depth reports pursuant to the bank’s quarterly announcements earlier, we rather worry we may have the wrong end of the stick given IDBI’s 8% exposure to the Power sector loans and the historically high NPA rate moving from 1.25% to a higher 1.57% this quarter.

 

Bank increased profits 20% after relief from 70% PCR by RBI and CASA has improved to 19%

 

CASA is a low 19% with a lack of transformation mandate from the government for the bank. Its Advances are bigger than Axis with a book of INR 1.56 Tln or $31 bln (20% yoy)

 

NII tracked a stagnant 1122 crs or $224.4 mln and NIM fell 7bp to 2%, Cost of Funds a high 8.40% for its aggressive retail push supporting its higher cost structure model Expansion is already limited but the bank remains attractive to depositors and reach to good credit seekers remains a plus

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