India Morning Report: 6220, then, true bottom, market move up please.

Namma Metro
Namma Metro (Photo credit: ashwin kumar)

More impressive than Horn OK Please, but then two wheeler riders deserve beter(sic?!) or not, National Highways are safer for Trucks and Four Wheelers and so no, this headline is not about the mow down of two wheelers or by two /three wheelers in the urban meltdown. The 1000 odd rich families in the People’s Republic are treated with such disdain twice as vitriolic as attributed to the rowdies on Indian roads and they are definitely equally cognizant of the traffic rules as the four wheelers. As I write S&P seems to have marked India’s rating to stable.

More often than not, these urban snarls on the way to work have lately been marked by spots of new construction hanging because of bankrupt cities and states or other EPA/non EPA but documentation relation bottlenecks the construction crew is pretty used to. The BMRTC however, continues to break the mould in setting the benchmark for delayed and inept project handling, while the Bangalore Metro remains the only pristine mass transport crew in the world, after 15 months for nothing else but the 3.5 km distance it covers in totality to the CBD.

A “Dadi Balsara” inspiration that could work for the city and other Indian cities, is to break Bangalore into 3 different urban entities, not a loose conglomerate /federation of municipal divisions/organisations like in Delhi but cities with passports , if required, to travel in between. Singapore has managed very well with the urban transport problem and along with the Scandinavian cities that started it, London and Singapore remain great examples of how to create and grow a city infrastucture and plan urban Transport

But then, I am in the 9 to 5 mold like most Indian 18-40s and more or less wait for work to come to me because that is the smart thing to do.

English: COMPULSORY SOUND HORN sign
English: COMPULSORY SOUND HORN sign (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Markets are dull, lifeless and the nose is pointing up as 6220 held and will declaim into the biggest rally yet as Earnings season successes have put the GDP growth residual to the crisis into a proper perspective, India becoming one of the most undervalued domains and like US equities, the depth of the market gets its own sponsors while Currency and Fixed Income woes almost strike a t will, the lull taking again a single seller to push a sharp toll on the incumbents, the currency lopping a wide ball to 63 and yields kissing 9% . The RE60 quadricycle will be good for the Indian soul and perhaps sponsors like Prince RJ will even push for it to displace the 800 (in the minds). Bajaj Auto, suffered a setback despite  adding export numbers in October as markets remain uneducated about its portfolio and expectations are at variance spurred by the single line item hope of the return of Hero in this Festive season. Three wheeler sales are strong again and M&M is making a comeback in the Global Auto sector citizenry where they have made a unique impact ( not from 60s history but here and now)

Those who watched it will be carrying it home as Rajeev Gowda handed the BJP and CNN IBN an apt rejoinder on the Poll /Survey action initiated by the CEC ahead of state and General elections. Results season is over not just in the USA but here as well. The remaining PSU banks and Dhanalakshmi Bank and Dena Bank report over the weekend. Next week sees more MNC Pharma results and Sun and Stride Arco labs  report big earnings quarters, Sun Pharma closing on the 14th. Both Cipla and Sun Pharma report on the 13th and Sun could wait for 14th morning before appearing on the networks as Stride Arcolabs reports. Tata Global (Starbucks) reports with the Reliance pack on Tuesday/Wednesday

RBI guidelines on Foreign banks entering thru the WOS structure plug in the statutory gaps  but cannot more than show their good faith and welcoming arms for Foreign banks who are already staring at cutting themselves out of more regulatory capital holes cropping up to bear the expense of global expansion hitherto unfathomable in an industry used to being welcomed on the strength of an opaque global HQ without farming Capital to such “territories” Even as the regulations are required and Indian Bank sector will expand and mature with a growing debt franchise , India has already been bracketed into an “exotic” category with the likes of Brazil for its reliance on traditional lending products in the credit basket and the split from shadow banking ties or one still believes even the lack of depth in wholesale funding. Also none see India as a pioneer for having always kept the inter bank market to a minimum as global banks fight the war with regulators for drying up the inter bank market. Credit continues to contract in Europe at near double digit levels, the single most factor affecting banks even as they stabilise the new era of growth and the best in class retain double-digit RoEs.

India Morning Report: Wish you a Happy Festive Season and a prosperous New Year

The diwali diyas at Diwali Celebrations at Ban...
The diwali diyas at Diwali Celebrations at Bangalore 2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

That of course is Diwali day trading, a welcome to Hindu Calendar year 2070 ( there are many variations of this year 2070 too, and we follow the ‘Vikram’ calendar ‘officially’)

Goldman Sachs has upgraded the season’s new watermark to be 6900. Others have posited a 7500 mark to aim for till next October and the markets are a little broken, down 30 points at open in sync with the rest of Asia and most market operators simply look at the number and believe it is more about building that appetite for new levels and with buyers primed by the good analysis floating all around, and retail investors held away by “the urge to splurge” the trends are rock solid this instance. ITC is still funding the new entries and new shorts have been segmented in JP Associates, ITC and IT in the F&O market

After October’s record inflows, the November marks’ buoyancy is likely to create a currency ripple and strengthen the Rupee to 60 levels and probably bring Fixed Income yields down by 20-30 basis points through this month and by the time equity series expires on November 28. The day is off with short calls and if the trend is indeed sustained above 6200 levels, the first target will be the long-awaited 6350 rush. domestic institutions will be staying out in this rally and unless you have an appetite for longer term investing – YES, IDFC, ICICI (down 30 today), ITC, Bharti – you should also watch from the sidelines and trade in derivatives along strict lines for the big bang when you read the risk.

The institutional hedges ave to move from shorting the index this instance though some of the longer passive fund s would still short  at the OTM 6750 levels. A 78 Rs move in Reliance has made it the largest contributor on the Nifty and as was its wnt in the 90s, its stemming the correction singly. PSU bank trades were no trecommended here, esp in Union Bank of India and Indian Bank ( a very counter intuitive “bottom of the rung” move by bigger tier 2 operators /proprietary desks at indian brokerages)

The Sell on HCL Tech (Prakash Gaba) is an instant success recipe and remember to book your profits. The shorts in Powergrid and any dips in REC are good opportunities to buy . In fact REC is good at current levels even s press notes of further clearing of roadblocks in projects worth INR 4 Tln are not worth the sound bite, but the infracos have the rights to an ultra explosive take off, IDFC already up 12-15% in the crossover. Real estate will not be too hot despite the great results as the pressures remain, gold demand down 40% after a non-existent takeoff in coins and other investment bullion trades. Metals rally is on, though with the miners (related) NMDC and Coal starting back in favor. Gains in HUL will be along calculated returns for high yielding investment strategies. MidCaps are going to have to wait

 

India Morning Report: No, yesterday’s mid-day rush was not enough!!

Welcome to ICICI bank Page
Welcome to ICICI bank Page (Photo credit: denharsh)

Of course, ITC and ICICI Bank will be reporting during the afternoon as well and the market closing is unlikely to be weak enough to discourage a big move possibility next week and overnight positions are unlikely except the refreshed long straddles (short put 5700 –  short call 6300-6500) and exits from 6100 shorts built up mid-week again. J Associates may see flash floods in light of the F1 race weekend but Bharti, ITC and Bajaj Auto will lead the way through to close.

Banks may be in pressure again but only because of the legacy of NPAs in BOB which built up an entire portfolio of NPAs / instead of trade receivable in a bid to export Indian Banking Capital and lending in the last two decades and PNB lone cannot stem the tide. Also the unfortunate positive attention on SBI though under a new chairperson is unlikely to escape keen valuation specific traders for more than a few trades.

The ICICI results may thus see a complex short-term trade unfolding which will beat down PSU earning expectations and correct the recent run up in undesireds except perhaps in the big-ticket PSU Banks like BOI and Canara. Taking the examples of the bottom rung from good old ET(yesterday’s op-ed pages), Corporation Bank, Indian Bank, Union Bank and that other are unlikely to get picked up soon either even as they trade down to less thna half their book values as they tot up more of the impressive 2 Tln NPA in the PSU Banks

SBI’s steady stream of recoveries at INR 4 Bln this quarter is no small feat too and is no small measure contributing to the revival of the stock after Chaudhuri’s exit.

Blackrock and JP Morgan ( with a new Middle East Fixed Income Index) are leading fund managers as Europeans garner more cash from Emerging Markets in their Wealth Management saves and EEM continues to bring good tidings with a big rush in midday trades, again signalling a big push to break down the 6220 limits faced by the traders. Tech M has in the meantime done it again, extending more bad blood to investors as it loses a big renewal from BT to little known Virtusa

Powergrid results enthused the markets and would be a big draw for Foreign investors with more than 80% of its top line Net Interest income translating to profits consistently and the NII now crossing INR 40 Bln close to a quarterly $1 Bln target. Also the Power NBFCs have been fairly active in QIP debt and are a known international entity.

US Banks in the meantime walked out of one frying pan into another as the closure on some mortgage settlements was followed by an “unfavorable award” by the Fed demanding higher thn expected liquidity reserves. The ensuing collateral shortfall and rush for short-term liquidity ( of more than $200 Bln) may hopefully not impact Emerging Market portfolios as BankAm has completed most of its domestic restructuring and government intervention preventing international expansion ( with frequent non US asset sales) ebbing down

Kotak’s results yesterday were less than spectacular with deposits still less thn INR 100 Bln and NII of INR 10.24 Bln on Loan assets of INR 512 Bln ood yields ( NIMs of 4.8%) but hardly any expansion commensurate to its size, and YES Bank already more than caught up except for perhaps a few more wealth clients with Kotak (UHNI)

Fixed income yields are back to 8.6% at the close of the week ahead of the Bank Policy announcement on Wednesday. We do not think a rate hike is on the cards and are long on YES Bank as the MSF will anyway further come down by 50 bp. If instead the repo rate is indeed 7.75% and MSF thus stuck at 8.75%, then the Rupee’s refusal to complete any upward movement would have been vindicated and it may further move back to 63 levels . As of now a move to 60 still looks like on the cards for the Rupee to be vindicated as the stronger Asian currencies as the CAD shows into the good books again and PSU banks complete a two step Capital bonanza with more Capital post the retail fest from the government at the end of the quarter

The markets should close above 6150 in anticipation of the next week’s move or unwinding should hit quickly to more than a uarter of the outstanding in F&O markets. More likely it will as 6200 positions in shrt calls again go to cheaper OTM  6300s in the straddles

Also, I did forget, Will India welcome another to the Kingdom of Fries as “Burger King” heads to twon with the North India franchise of McDonalds already down to underestimating market demand for the McDonalds’ menu

India Morning Report: Private Banks paying for PSU heresy

feted by

Bank nifty private bank leaders were again targeted as investors refused to let the index give up its gains. Those locked into long PSU strategies remained headed for negative gains in the 2013 cycle and switching trades also not being available, as a measure of respite seemingly, unwitting profitable counterparts were targeted by those prefering the short side of the target at nifty near 6100 and banks are unable to resist these sharp cuts with most other new longs since April not including banks. To wit, Indian Bank is trading in positive territory being one of the few whose positive uptick in Q4 results fully recovered the profit habit in the eyes of investors. Canara ‘s NPAs for examply stayed above 2.6% headed for a 3% cut in assets and negating any other income of the bank.

New positive offshoots from Infra and results from Karnataka elections that firmed up chances of a stable regime the next five years till 2019 also indicate a firming up of price levels for a success to be feted by equities in Indian markets. All Capital markets look to move unidirectionally in the first few months of confirmation of recovery as fixed income markets celebrate a new 10 year bond and yields move closer to 7.25% levels Strange opinions from Goldman Sachs take over the small screen though as the broker’s opinion tries to spread /believe recovery has spread to stocks like L&T and Apollo Tyres, which both seem to look askance yet and well may lose steam to winners forom metals and minerals first as those look more positively geared up for a recvovery than these GS recommendations

Meanwhile IDFC has hit a late stride on the bull run and DIIs including bulk buyers like LIC look to be stuck with purchases at these or higher levels except for a later correction to 5900 and not more than that

Germany’s IIP data meanwhile only helps our belief that the Euro has taken the proverbial high road, any lack of recovery in the 17 Euro countries unlikely to disturb the currency’s upward trend beyond 1.36 ( hsbc target0 or other higher targets near 1.45 even as any meaningful recovery in the 17 country economic zone or progress on closer union may also well be ruled out after German elections till 2018.

Disinvestment mandates to achieve promoter compliance with sebi requirements (GSK Consumer, HUL) seems to have rung the cash registers at HSBC as the banks good results earlier this week, also showed its great pipeline in Asia, theonly one including both China and India.

 

Banks look for Fee Income push (India Earnings Season)

An HDFC Bank Branch in Hyderabad
Image via Wikipedia

Despite paltry box office pickings of just Rs 1300 Crores for the Corporate Finance teams, private sector banks are set to make a profitable killing for the quarter’s results led by Investment based products, bancassurance and commercial banking charges on Trade and retail customers. The kicker is almost 40-50% for Private Banks like Kotak and HDFC Bank while even PNB and UBI will bolster their effective interest income growth with 20% growth in fee income.

Banks have recently been allowed multiple ( up to 4) insurance partners for their cross-sell desks in wealth management and even longstanding wannabes like Indian Bank will pursue the course to bolster their banking incomes. Axis and HDFC Bank expect almost a fifth of their income from fee based lines

Also deals may be looking up in the latter half of the year if retail regains color and FD”i approvals come through

The public bank conundrum – PNB’s size as example

SBI and Axis already preferred by PEs and Citi’s latest research, PNB has long been our candidate for a size led market reach explosion in Tier 2 and 3 and now 5 and 6 towns as per RBI diktat as well.

However hard put they may be by a high interest rate scenario and their redoubtable marketing/ interface strategums of leading with first and relatively highest scores in transmission, the ensuing hostilities in the market place have long been smoothed by rent and public avarice for these public sector banks.

Another 20 basis point decline in NIMs underscores PNB’s stated peaking of NIMs in the previous Dec 2010 results. Still the bank has $5.25 bln in Interest Income alomne putting Average Weighted Funds at $136 bln for the year ended March 2011

Also strangely Indian Bank has not folowed into the disaster zone pushed by most banks in the public sector space wih a growth of 22% in NII strangely as they already hold extraordinary NIMs and a pretty small asset base.

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