India Morning Report: GDP forecasts look for their pound of flesh, india inc reports (This week in Asia on The Banking and Strategy Initiative:

The old RBI Building in Mumbai
The old RBI Building in Mumbai (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Reserve Bank of India pulled up the bank lending rates for its MSF (the emergency lending by RBI at the top of the rate channel prescribed) from 8.25% to 10.25% yesterday and networks are agog with the presumptive lockdown on India’s money markets esp inter bank liquidity finally pushing the short end of the term structure up a couple of hoops to 8.15% at the open as visible in one year forwards.

In sum, though equities will keep a small range around a ower bound 5900 and above, strangles are already priced near 0 at 138 for the short 5900 puts, 6000 calls showing trades to be unremunerative for this week and the profit making probaility of this depleted range is tenuous both fro m the tightness of the range and the inherent balance engineered in the markets giving way to any bull/bear at the slightest pretext

RBA had earlier shown in its minutes released that they considered the rate cuts to be done with, triggering a conventional run on the Dollar in that currency bringing it up by 1% . The Rupee has opened 1.5% stronger in morning trades but as pressure from Economist desks builds up to a crescendo and GDP forecasts are cut 75-100bps at Morgan Stanley among others to near 5% for 2014, we are witnessing a characteristic one time correction as policy locks in to the only possible market view while hoping for a trade led recovery down the line and acts on the limited dollar trade that continues to cause disruptions in our Economic cycle especially related to our dependence on imported fuels

Traders would hardly have been in place for the correction on Thursday and Friday as the markets are still positively rewarding good results which when they com are as big as over 20% sales and bottomline growth on a regular basis. However , the downward move also lacks momentum and like the rupee in the other direction, equities will only trade up the rest of the day after opening 100 points down on the Nifty. Some longer term shorts may stay in as characteristic hedges performed over the weekend and Monday when indices opened down today in differential performance terms to trading positions and long investment portfolios. ETF outflows from Emerging markets were just under $10 Bln in June with $6 Bln exiting the iShares MSCI EM fund but that is still 1 in 10 of the funds and funds will continue to be sticky in India where the growth paradigm is still relatively safe on th ground despite the consumption led industrial production going negative marking the toughest bottom for Indian prospects. Manufacturing makes less than 20% of India’s GDP but is on par with Exports and Global trade lacking growth claws would unhinge the one sided growth story that has always precluded a deeper range of opinions on India from global commentators instead shined by China.

India’s equity markets being deep makes it impossible for hot money to follow on this morning’s run and even as the spike in Fixed income markets unhinges bank business models the problems will likely be fied with a continuing positive bias before the end of the week unlike such runs in other Asian markets like indonesia, Korea or Thailand However a bottom in bank stocks is yet not known or targeted and ther emay be no directional trades in the interest sensitive sectors in India


India Trade and Revenue Deficit Data – May 2012

Exports continue to consolidate at May figures above $25.5 B. imports are consistent with this year’s degrowth at $ 41.9B and the trade deficit at $16B may mean more weakness for the rupee though policy measures are in place

Jewelery exports are hardly down 9%, ready made garments hit by lack of demand in Europe, and petroleum products 26% apart from the known lack of traction in engineering goods. However imports are down too and the $16.9 B deficit is a relief.

Indirect Tax collections were up 16% till April with Service tax collections for the month up 45% on the year to the new target of 1T

India’s Trade Deficit See saw

Exports continued their healthy growth in September growing 36% but even as the trade deficit came back to $9.8 bln in September and imports grew by 20% only, the trade deficit is galloping to a $42 bln gap for the year at a $10 bln over run per quarter

The growth in exports, verified to an extent by data on port shipments (RBI:Governor’s Interview on B-UTV) is a welcome addition of $6 bln to India’s topline everymonth, coming to $24.8 bln in September after a $18 bln September 2010 

Going by Q1 ‘s example, as also Q2, 2 out of 3 months in the December quarrter may end up reporting a $15 bln deficit in trade each

India now expects to triple its global trade by 2025 and even pip China as largest trading partner in the

Taxi in Abu Dhabi / U.A.E.
Image via Wikipedia

Middle East (Abu Dhabi) according to a HSBC trade conference in Abu Dhabi. Trade with Abu Dhabi is expected to grow to 100 bln and India’s overall trade bill $977 bln / $1T

Trade Deficit. Another scary 2011 ride!

The Sea Phoenix moves between lock chambers of...
Image via Wikipedia

India’s trade deficit was $9 bln in April last year. This year almost $9 bln of gold imported in the month of May is itself almost half of our annual requirement of gold. Thus with Indians actively hedging with gold and stocks down for time to come, the larger trade deficit could continue for another couple of months. With the import bill at $40.9 billion for the month, our deficit is running at an average almost equal to our exports just two years ago at $15 bln for May 11.

Exports are good but still not up for a monthly comparison as Mar 2011 was exceptionally high coming in a good year for exports. However Exports at $26 bln grew 56% year on year. Imports also rose more than 50% at $41 bln with Oil only growing 12%

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