India Morning Report: And it is clear thru to 6250 from here?

Most short strangle/ straddles would be in profit to have exited and is you have been a bit late you should close out here because the markets are going to have a position either way, mostly likely trying to forget the break between 6100 and 6250 as markets have been given the mandate to a new bull run, which might well start around 6250 again. For a change both networks are carrying investor conferences, apparently not the same but more importantly, the post budget rush to 6100 (more like 6150 ) came yesterday and was backed by real flows, the current levels thus likely to have fully bought in leaving a new index level before the argument over the direction for India starts, global equities being decided on the up.

The bet o f going short on the S&P500 is not necessarily linked to the single up move in Emerging markets and while the longs in Emerging markets continue, the shorts on the S&P will either become OTM hedges or extinguished as US markets also resume an uptrend

An INR 12.7 Tln expenditure budget is fair enough but the optimism allowed to him on tax revenues from a recovering India economy is likely to have brokerages just the right busy for traders and speculators to remain ahead on the risk trades  before being called out by their analysts. For example, yesterdays dissection of each such number as a “little too optimistic” finally seems to have gone unheard as it should in a believable bull segment. However, despite our India story being better than China, a sscal e of 10X will likely apply in comparing flows to the two markets alone and India will be able to win that argument for $10 Bln every quarter.

ITC, Bharti are not overvalued in the Consumer space. We cannnot see value in the HUL trade whose markets have matured in India. Other consumption stories never scaled anyway and that therefore is the limitation of investing in Indias FMCG story except the ‘other’ 2010 winners as titan and ttk remain down and the domino’s pizza is no longer the story as expected after the DD ride, showing up the absence of a secular market and pizza hut coming back out in investments despite the Dominos’ 65% share (Jubilant Foods)

Bajaj Auto may not have substantial price cuts that have  shown on the radar for Hero after the budget giveaway

There seem to be big earnings leftovers with DLF and ABB following on , ETNow catching them for a change, but one understands that CNBC mode better, having ignored these latecomers and even penalised them. Its definitely my strategy with such presenters. DLF has a 60% higher sales revenues , with or without their main contribution this quarter from the sale of Aman Resorts as costs remain high for the real estate company

IDFC, YES, PNB and ICICI correct after yesterday’s rush for buying the select list while shorts on Kotak lead the cut in all such Financial stocks. I will look to shorts jumping SBI again, but probably waiting to coalesce th ebull candles into a stronger up force. PNB is coasting at 540 post a week long correction mode after a day’s ibig wins in the post analysis.

LIC Housing is probably as good for the medium term as the Power NBFCs, all the 4-5 stocks at the bottom of their range and Sundaram and the Gold NBFCs unlikely tpo o be competitively buoyant. Axis Bank would support Bank shorts as Kotak and thus Bank remains available as a short hedge too. Cipla and Lupin present a new problem as they continue to activate a bundle of no good stocks they were partnered with in their defensive mode and are not trading bets as they reach the top of their range near 450 and 1200. There is no secular run in metals, none in construction and Tata Steel remains a buy with the auto stocks without Tata Motors or the Unitechs and the HDILs

Modi is looking at some obvious chinks in his own armor as he stands on a half poant English speaking tour, showing up equally worse off in Oratory as Rahul, but looking comfortable with one new round of Desi dose goevrnance for India Inc

From my end, Chidambaram was more than right in showing UPA’s 8.4% and 6.6% 5 year periods ( 4 year periods) against the 6.2% average, but apparently there are not enough Financially literate voters around, despite the preoccupation with growth

 

 

India Morning Report: There is no hope trade in sight

But I’d say keep accumulating as the indices break through a critical 6000 mark. Many blue chips, like in global markets offer extreme value in buys even as the speculative trade fails to take off on a delayed recovery.  Gujarat’s downfall over the small matter of a receding poverty line not helping the cause of the markets rich BJP is a puerile coincidence for the markets, but correspondingly there is no Congress faction left in the markets to buno the tanabana, Markets selling the stable BJP proposition backing out for an increased negative momentum(undesirably sharp)  on the downward side

The IT trade coming into profit taking for the almost first time except for a pre results redenomination, there ae buyers out there who are ok with the premium on Infy to a low 3475 market price and HCL Tech is good for a move of Rs 100 or more. Thus if all sectors move together like the Tuesday open, markets could see almost unheard of hlevels receding to 2012 levels no longer required by the New Dolla r prices. That also means these exits will cascade the Rupee even as it holds at 62.50 to 63 levels , that being a new fresh level for the currency. However it is still possible that with DIIs coming back as markets sell off that the gradual sell off can indeed turnaround and complete the prophesied ( by certan others , also old hands) pre election rally in India. The sell trade on ITC will likely never exit 290 levels an such picks abound with limited downside even in the correction which will confuse buyers into making losing commitments so a wait and watch is necessary. F&O markets return back to index only specials and i the downmove is to be arrested by Vols at 14 this will be a small enough move, but that is unlikely leaving vols (India Vix) ranging between 14 and 16 till the first buyers return whence new VIX levels would only see increasing volatility

However as we were stock specific going up and DIIs look for bargains to pick up pieces, there are gaps in how the markets will rebuild momentum most buyers holding on to prior 2013 selections including the new Aurobindo and Sun Pharma trades( a great defensive for mopping up your prop liquidity) in IDFC at 90, ICICI Bank almost ready at 930 levels ( the next levels are around 871), Yes Bank ( bottom at 267 will likely not reach the same so accumulating should be ready  – like a dark pool premium),  Bajaj Auto, ITC, Bharti and no – not ttk and titan currently as there is much more going down in that specific market despite the penchant of the self funded margin traders in our domestic brokerages like Angel, SMC and Centrum including the overlap with commodities wealth accounts. There will be no dlf trade north, none in Jubilant foods, titan or ttk and none in HDIL or unitech much later. Axis Bank’s orphaned again being misused in the prior rallies, leaving nay of the F&O speculators heading there at great risk from those targeting their brand of stupidity after getting on the right investments. Trading as a game may try not to suffer though sharp bear phases and quick bull recoveries are not ruled out with brokers and traders living the cricket dictum of well left alone even for great value picks in Midcaps The trades are mostly in Spreads, Bear spreads in your choice made by buying Puts at the just OTM (ATM-OTM>= 0) and selling a lower put to part fund the trade. Bull spreads, which wold be due n a couple of weeks, go bought Call just OTM (ITM-OTM>=0) which reflects better liquidity as well and thus better premiums, and partly funded by distant OTM Calls ( nly one or two will have  tested and liquid quotes where you do not pay excess liquidity spreads)

 

India Morning Report: Why exactly is IOC available so cheaply?

Of course, Infy will lead the bullish breakout on the Index, and the profit prognosis again at a Cons INR 28.75 Bln is much more to look forward to than the Cons Revenues of INR 130 Bln but the dip in Revenue growth , braked to 0.5% on Q2 Dollar data is still probably excusable. The jump from Infy to the Earnings season that starts in earnest next week.

However, IOC is as expected delayed on the divestment news but mainly because the Oil ministry got the fangs to file a dissent note as the Energy co’s price has slumped to lower than 200 (on the average of prev 6 month closing prices) There are many benefits to divestment and in fact a bargain such as IOC at these prices would be an investor bonanza par extraordinaire. BPCL (up 7%) and HPCL(up 3% probably) gain on the news of the delay but the question to who are the agencies involved in muting the price performance of India’s best navratna after ONGC remains important to answer unfortunately for the BJP fueled markets and the outgoing Congress government

The Delhi Power audit will also ensnare Relinfra as it owns 2 out of 3 Delhi Power distcos with more than 30 mln subscribers and three-quarters of the Peak Demand. Delhi takes in a huge 7.5GW of Power Capacity of the installed 130 GW nationally but the share is much larger in utilised Power capacity

The Pharma companies, the other beneficiary of India’s global largess in currency trading, will also be busy making aggressive deals in the US Pharma market while rejuvenating their domestic Pharma businesses, with Torrent and Auro completing deals this quarter in Elder (domestic) and Celon.  Lupin delivered another USFDA win along expected lines with Twynsta generic being allowed to both Lupin and Torrent. Fresh buying is impossible even in Lupin, Cadila ( 850-1350 nah?)

The market is not really ranged and while Infy may not be able to envelop all India expectations ever again at the start of the results season, it still clears most markers impeding a new rally post earnings. Bank earnings deliver the second infusion of realistic optimism on India Inc in a few days when the upward edges of the range are exected to stand up to better levels. Meanwhile Infy should crawl to the top of its 3400-3650 range benefitting the rare speculator who punted positively for them , most having to square out written calls, even as the markets face resistance offered by such shorts and Infy sets the grounds for more positive surprises down the line with NRN back at the helm. The changes in the Executive would be the easiest to explain.

A problem of plenty as I use images from Google with the syndicated image burner feed disappearing from WP?? 😉

The RBI governor would be probably hoping that the month end policy becomes a non-event considering the positive mpact just from holding rates and the challenges from inflation growing by his side. BofA’s Axis Bank ugrade may still be too little and too late as Axis battles NPA spam with PNB , counted for its days with the PSU crowd

Indices should not see a meltdown thus at 6150 and you should get one bang out of the score if you sell 6100 Puts getting cheaper by the minute at the open and even 6200 ones. If you cover them do cover them with buys in the OTM range(buy) at 6700 ( assuming 6500 in  a close future top of the market ) The bottom of the index range should thus become more volatile funding the shorts glued in to the market bearing down for over 6 weeks now but they will probably tire out this time, Vol allowing a long-range upside on its own nevertheless as India VIX continues to ride low on a stuck to the tea leaves recovery, which will still trend higher and not lower like in China

India Morning Report: Rollovers underline a strong Thursday close, Merry Christmas India

English: Eugene Fama receiving the inaugural M...
English: Eugene Fama receiving the inaugural Morgan Stanley-American Finance Association Award from Rick Green (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Inflows have been strong in second half of the Calendar year and Net Exports have been rising (nice, Manishi RayChoudhuri/TV18) . RGR was a brave face as he shot down the traders bamboozling him and the follow up interviews by the Guv on both CNBC India and ET NOW are great hits but without Investment to the real sectors and not real estate or Financial markets the return to 7% growth levels is a shard unwritten.

I hope he can stay off some future rate hikes too even as the auto sector underlines that the recovery has not happened tomorrow or this month(January) either. Fixed income yields still have a chance to return to 8.5% but then thats me hoping in counter balance to markets hoping for free money on a tree, any tree! (lolz)

New Open Interest at the start of this week even makes a 6500 close to the series possible but probably we will stay at around 6350, no less. HDFC Fund”s INR 150 mln-200 mln purchase of the Morgan Stanley funds is like showing up how tough it is and will be ,  while hiding the almost nationalisation part of the transaction, allowing a stuck Foreign fund an exit from an incalcitrant (Recalcitrant plus contumacious plus that commission factor?) market it is unable to grow not unlike Fidelity as entry loads bring bak the downselling to th slow growing asset markets that have still grown from INR 5.5 Tln before the crisis to almost INR 8 Tln today, the indexes barely having moved on the round trips in between. HDFC Fund’ last big buyout was when it got the top performing Zurich funds and till now has been masticating these previous transactions without any growth and is unlikely to start growing from here despite the 400,000 new customer accounts left high and dry. Market sentiment is indeed positive and getting better and may the DIIs forever looking for a bargain keep cash and money markets running to good demand for Indian paper.

Back in equities, the markets are busy rolling over their bullish positions on the penultimate day of trading in the series and the shorts have to probably fall out except for the 6500-6800 Calls on the Nifty which can be written with certainty till expiry, now predominantly in the January series, given the markets are eager because of the safeplaying, to turn boring January into a contest of Fireworks from both bulls and bears but probably with a 6300 bottom till some big negative news plays out not counting out inflation as Rural CPI may still sike and Vegetable inflation may still fall behind the news of prices going down last month

YES is a great buy even without a new IFC contract signing, IFC’s co lending probably its most profitable program in the subcontinent and its return augurs well in the last decade and more in jumping up Investment in India but with intthe currency hanging it will probably take a few more Dollars from them to move the trend to the Indian waters this time around. Hopefully, EXIM Bank does not need allocations from the Government in this quarter either to move export credit and keep double digit growth in Exports on track even as the gains from a gold clampdown disappear

Individual stocks

The sells on Jubilant Foods may not be needed for substitution of ITC into buy portfolios betting on the recovery nor do straddles get anything in the 6300-6500 range in January ( Ashwini still out of depth a little like the DIIs without a correction, though there  has never been any benefit to markets in acceding o their demand for lower levels , tabs , whatever. Interesting downtick in Volatility this week, One thought/heard positive volatility had disappeared totally. The only remaining downside risk to the market now building up is the jump in Canar Bank stock and such investors and advisors now again rooting for select PSU bank stocks.

Update price not disclosed, the MF purchase cost HDFC Funds upward of 4% of Debt fund AUM

India Morning Report: Icky Spider on the Wall, why is this the fairest of all?

Česky: short straddle
Česky: short straddle (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

An unheard limerick, coined by yours truly, till some claim is authenticated on the same, roposes the current scenario and the base reasons for the same vacillating non volatility trade winning 6200 mark again. We had planned a kudos for the F&O analyst for proposing the 6100-6300 straddle ( Sold put – sold call) after Vol (India Vix) reported a low 15-17 score befor the weekend and 17 on Thursday. Though the Economic data is baked in however, the index challenged by us to stay the course around 6200, is finally hanging on to its gains after some again ventured freely on the shorts ( even the short straddle is a double short but bets the markets are ranged in 6100-6300. If the markets indeed die at 6200 the strategy would be a magic marker for the India F&O market that will be a good point of reference to repeat in any new intermediate cycle  or waiting time as the case may be. However as of now, the strategy is a little stuck in the mud. Also when switching this strategy in a bull market currently, one can even sell twice the 6200 puts as the never yet suggested bull exit indeed comes to fruition

Long Straddles won the day marginally(Long 6100 call, Long 6300 Put) and Sold 6200 calls are also in the money over the weekend( Open-Open comparisons) The 6300 Call has come down from 270 to 30 from last Monday (Open – Open)  though OI has decreased in the market after a hopeful Friday Ramp by a 3/13 ratio and sold calls would have generated

”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ”

”                                                                                                                                                                                                         GAIN                                   ”

An option payoff diagram for a long straddle p...
An option payoff diagram for a long straddle position (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

INR 24,000 per 2 lots (100 Nifty underlying) as vol has disappeared from intra trend highs and turnover is steady though considerably lower than the bunched OI at 6200. A 6100-6300 short straddle would have gained 1300/- from Friday Open to Monday Open with the 6100 Put losing 700/- [All calculations made at the same 2 lots = 100 Nifty underlying each leg of the straddle].  A long 6100CE/6300PE straddle would bother an INR 26.1K investment and would have been worth INR 23.4 K on Monday morning.

<– LOSS 

Good volumes have been traded in Havell ( as the Morning report comes to you late today for unspecified reasons) as the scrip gets select attention. Similarly NB, PFC and other select universe scrips have seen important moves from Friday levels upwards even as Nifty Calls seem to specify maturity of the short Calls especially at 6100 (still at a premium above 100)

The Rupee closed at 61.75 on Friday and is a t similar levels in Monday afternoon trades and both banks and infracos have seen significant moves after a 25bp rate hike has been priced in by the markets at 8.9% yields as the Bond Index entry for India issues is also under review

The Tech M sale announced last week as Executive (insider sales) Vineet Nayyar, exited half his shares ( Sale of 500,000 shares) timed perfectly with the peak price for the stock and as we expect bigger shorts in the scrip , one should expect the longs on IT to continue iling into the doddering scrip nevertheless.

The Title reference, to dig into the simile, shows up the underlying insane spells in the India markets, showing u more in skeletal volumes and defining why retail and even Domestic institutions have been priced out of this market..I am still to design any research around such a proposition, but it is likely not difficult. Let me know if any of you try.

Tomorrow might be much the same after a second day that the Market opened near 6200 and returned to 6150 before closing trades were executed. HDFC Bank has hit a 49% foreign investor ceiling nd is  losing purely for lack o f allowed buyers today. PSU Bank investors will not be returning for a significant part of 2014.

India Morning Report: Volatility(India VIX) has another 40% upside, the last series is a rush

Maruti Temple
Maruti Temple (Photo credit: Terry Hassan)

When markets opened yesterday, the PCR reported was an even stevens at 1.0 and the rush for Open interest additions in All calls from 6200-6800 or all puts from 5800 to 6200 by writers meant the VIX continued to jump in a flat market remaining at 6200.

The trend continues today and with a bull spread easily assimilated, Bullish positions will accrue in the flat market till the written calls can jump the markets near a 1.2 PCR level which means actually a lot of money to be made in this derivative series in the last month of the Calendar year as the Dow unwinds most of the gains in the previous two weeks.

Indian markets will drift but look like making all time highs sooner than later as the bottom catches up with 6200 while the VIX continues its move up. If you notice, in the calls for a saturated market the buy calls today are  a distinct extension of the same stock selection begun in August 2013.

PNB has finally been given the green light wth its better provisioning implying a bigger bull weight to the stock esp as PSU banks remain a big no and that means a lot of exits. The market saturation commentators probably used the SBI series to make the point but the same is more an indication of a fundamental disavowal from the State Bank stock as it remains a primary conduit in the highlighted Asset quality factors Fitch underlined in yesterday’s report to 15% NPL levels by March 2015.

ICICI Bank remains a buy on longer terms and if indeed it is available cheaper from 1080 levels it will be at the erstwhile 1035 for the day traders and accumulators Delhi goes to the polls tonight and next Monday counts will be in from the State Polls, lending  strategic beginning for the incumbent Congress and probably its last chance even as Modi makes a fool of his self in oratory and may cut his speaking engagements towasrds the end so his work record can be taken to the elections. A distinctly uneasy feeling to hear that sound of voice and it is likely to set in as a big fail for BJP on the national stage in some vaguely deviant way wihth a confused young electorate holding the keys to the next Government in Delhi ( Centre, not state)

Back in the cash markets, stocks selected are likely to gain fast colors soon as the Manthan is almost over and equity inflows substitute bond outflows near the next inflation rate hike as Money supply remains subdued and counters the rate hike rate cut philosophy underlining the wider disenchantment with trying and making money esp in India and the recovery looks to run sharer this quarter bringing banks back into mainstream picks without the PSU weighted Banknifty dragging individual winners

HDFC Bank has also suffered in the negative sentiment in aut markets and while the CV market and its loan portfolios like NBFCs and Indusind Bank remain sluggish and give of fthe all pervasive urge to cut weights in India, the rest of the retail Auto markets and Finance majors are probably set fro an upturn. November sales were especially cruel on Maruti and even Hyundai even as Ford rested on a steamed u 4000 units i export, resulting in almost 12k units for the month near its best yet.

Domestic shares of auto companies continue to shrink for everyone vbecause of the troubles with buying a Hyundai a Tata motor product like the Nano or anyther Three cheers to Darashaw Technicals for catching the exit point in HCL Tech. Notice again, the veracity nd the preponderence of select buy calls showing the winners of India Inc, this is the time to build the portfolio. Motherson Sumi(speaking on ETNOW) is one of the select auto ancilliary mid caps that will also build a market catch all in this specific turnaround time with strong order books and improving margins.

India Morning Report: There is the Rupee and then the equity markets…

Map of South Asia in native languages.
Map of South Asia in native languages. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Frankly, there is nothing much to hold the markets after they broke 5500 and the markets below 5000 Nifty levels are likely though still not extremely likely as values identified in the Top 20 liquid counters will probably include those already having fallen to their lowest levels of this rally’s beginnings or within 10% of the same as ITC and Bharti Airtel indicate. That also means institutional buying that has resumed in bits and pieces will characterise this market thru the breakdown. Even though Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan also put on a brave face and assumed Fixed income to be just duly following the currency mechanics, structurally markets are ready to ignore the falling Rupee between 64 and 68 once it starts that leg. I personally do not think interest rates derived from FX have any significant accurate behaviour, esp where in India both markets are relatively illiquid and dependent on key PDs for volume business

 

Though nominal growth is unlikely to be the promised 15%, shift to it sector has created an exchange that is leading scrips to oblivion and not really any structural factors as they remain exactly where we always were. Infrastructure and Metal sectors are actually at their best take off points now both for Fixed income and equity QIPs the latter a little harsh for promoters, and secondary market floats in infracos could find considerable long term investor demand soaking it up.

 

Similarly, rating agencies’ almost junk BBB-/BA2 ratings on India are in fact already indicative of this breakdown and may not need a correction giving the rating agencies to correct their now identified goodwill gap in asia esp india and South Asia, that can thence merit a suitable upward notch everytime CAD is actually brought into control. Strange, but true.

 

Fixed income markets are set to lead the way meanwhile to double digit yields on the 10 year bond already hitting 8.95% in morning trades as Rupee takes up 62.3 levels before moving on to 63.30 ( TV18/CLSA) as the next Technical target. Banks presumaly are also paying for their investment portfolio breakdown in this move and do not have fresh cash to borrow and place in the 11% short term and even the 8-9% 10 – 30 year bonds for substitution of current loss making AFS and not taking everything to HTM.

 

One year down the line, with a stable government maybe instead of hiking deposit rates we will see the yields going south again. Oil is back above $110 levels and Indian buying will comfortably take out 67 levels for the Rupee

 

 

 

India Morning Report: FDI flows bolstered in 13 sectors including Defence and Telecom

English: Manmohan Singh, current prime ministe...
English: Manmohan Singh, current prime minister of India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Pending Cabinet decisions, Parliamentary Debates, Ordinance and Laws

A welcome decision was announced to increase FDI limits in state of the art Defence equipment to 49% from 24% through the approvals route and base cellular networks in Telecom to 100% from a 74% currently removing an important roadblock in the plans of Global Services companies to enter the lucrative Indian market which created unseemly compromises in corporate governance and issues of under priced auctions. These two sectors can see immediate fDi commitments  The decisions were pushed by an ebattled PM and Economist Manmohan Singh likely to be singled out if the UPA fails General elections in 2014

The reforms initiated yesterday, unlikely to be rolled back in the long term except for political opportunism by new governments were long expected and remain important for India Inc, even in sectors like power exchanges, commodities exchanges and Stock exchanges where the existing 49% limits have been brought under the automatic investment route.

Importantly, the long-standing increase in FDI limits for insurance to 49% meets private insurance companies requirements and the sector looks for IPO issuance in the next 2-3 years with heightened participation from investors adding to solvency ratios and potential new business underwritten in a market growing at a double-digit CAGR

The removal of brownfield pharma projects from 100% automatic FDi stands as Ranbaxy reports a new FDA strictures at an Indian plant

The rupee will likely continue to trade above 59 but there are unlikely to be further selling pressures on the currency at this point though the depleted FX reserves and continued demand spiral for Oil necessitates careful watching

Banknifty was under a lot of flak from RBI intervention yesterday but will likely have bottomed out at those levels and those short during the day would have to close out without recourse especially in the DEivative markets as the thinly traded contract that creates the highest tradable volatility correlated to market directions depends on large discrete moves in the options trading its direction and as and if strangles were formed late at 11200 levels they would suffer from the positive semivariance similarily as the bear cut of double digits on individual private bank sotcks was much more thant he losses to the banks from the Monday/Tuesday interest rate shock event

India Morning Report: Really, the failure of the food bill?

The Food Bill’s failure to carry the day for the shortest parliament year in history might bring out more ‘under the covers’ Welfare Economists like me and many ladies from colleges, schools and workplaces I have been. One odd part of the Food Bill argument post facto on NDTV was the reticence of known commentator Gurcharan Singh to link the idea of policy failures to grain lying waste in FCI and other storage nationally.  A seeming recurrence of other such arguments, the anchor was right in still feeling bothered by this denial ad these simple supply chain fractures cannot be allowed to be neglected for purely political fault lines that have long proven to be futile for the future of India, whether it is love for coalitions, BJP as alternative or change of form of government and Third and Fourth fronts of obscure policy which again succeeded for a welfare objective nosed in corruption

Importantly for the morning though, those who lost the pair trade were a little less inconvenienced by the banks trading higher as everyone agrees the private performers must, the sharp cuts in pre-open foretold of a failed section of the markets still looking to make a bear grip run for a few live hours to disturb the almost confirmed trade, a likely genesis of the recent spurt in flash crashes globally and rather unfortunate. 

Banknifty puts should pay out well at the end of the month and one should not get too greedy in raising put strikes too fast, so it is the right time to pick up a few short straddles / strangles for keep around 6100 skewed by the multiple for the short puts ( your leg long on the market)  and if you fund it further with short calls as hedges you should choose those beyond 6400, i would be vary of being stuck with a 6300 call short right now.

When markets successfully consolidate, the volatility gap to any target peak leaves them considerable room for quicker faster rewards till they even reach for a asset bubble and then extend the wrong way down) equity investors’ profit taking in the first 5 months including December’s latter two weeks of global holiday has been muted despite funds portraying it as a short sign almost for managers’ hands waiting for fresh infusions and the second half of the year will build the next local inflows that gross up into the buying frenzy to be as LIC and even other insurance funds come for their share of bargain buying made possible at these levels by some really perfect design (dessicated and elongated into another 5 years since 2008).

Some of our renowned Economic authors either due to their own perverse aforethought (being an MBA makes me also feel ‘collicky’ / syrupy or about having believed in the author in question in his earlier corporate life) or a habitual coasting to prefabricated DNA of the argument or policy made me begin this simple daily report for Thursday. The show on NDTV was anchored by Sonia Singh and though the author in question is perhaps a greater practitioner than William Bissell (Fab India )

Gurcharan Das’ tomes of the last few years  have recently stopped being MBA strategy and become Economic thought stirring India visions. However, though I would not be commenting on his writings and have not implied any in the previous sentences, the show caught him on the wrong foot and despite being of the same/similar genealogy, and having held him in great esteem for his experience, I felt stunted for listening to this argument.

The not usually required introduction herein also probably underscores that I am not ready to be a raving rant in my Morning Report. Also I found it in his voice that he had failed when he let loose an uncharacteristic rant on the Congress Government. Man’s ideals are sure misplaced engines of convenience.

Also, it is naive to assume one can keep shouting about free market ideals as response to realpolitik especially given the engagement offered by media today.

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