India Morning Report: When the woods are lonely, dark and deep..

English: this is bajaj pusar
English: this is bajaj pulsar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Don’t Flip the lid though. Markets are finally moving on last call on Expiry day, to close at 6100 in November but the standoff till yesterday taking deep positions at a sell from 6100-6000 may not transpire, the play being caught and a reaffirmation of positive  moves from 6000 usually good to  start the rally from 6000 levels.

Also, as we usually are easy to predict, Kotak Institutional picks and that of some network analysts are again the wrong crop and definitely not good for harvest. L&T a late harbinger , its results likely to lag India Inc general investment recovery ratheer than be a sign of the same.

Axis and Bajaj are good again though the banking sector must face a few questionable glances purely in market valuation terms as Tatas withdraw on the question of operating ompanies esp outside India not being allowed to make a banking company in the NOHFC guidelines. M&M also did not want to move around its Finance companies as posited in the new structure directive but the structure is sound and not getting the desired response again. Also the Foreign banks had to be given concessions despite which they are not responding to the RBI invitations

Bajaj is favored by the continuing robustness in Rural GDP even as a farmer suicide on the same Sugar support price highlights unevenness in the national picture between rural and urban areas. CV sales are down 20% affecting both NBFCs and Indusind, or the auto industry majors relying on the sector. Tata Motors ahas effectively exited the sector along with a dismal Nano launch in the retail segment

Yields keep dropping back from last week’s 9% levels , starting the day at 8.67% . Buy picks on the Power NBFCs are instead good to go, with REC and Powergrid both alternating strikes on the bulls sides IDFC will also see big buyers taking positions in the new series and the only thing stopping ICICI Bank at this point is the lack of Banks to short further with Banknifty keeping to 11200 levels albeit on expiry day

US Markets will stay out of action till Monday as Thanksgiving day is here and shopping season is seeing a lot of uptick with cheap iPhone offers

The world's toughest fighting man. Yet, deep i...
The world’s toughest fighting man. Yet, deep inside he is just a lonely, homesick kid, praying for letters from home. – NARA – 535228 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

India Morning Report: Pass around the peanuts :: Losing 6200 now(not really), I am sinking, No EMs aren’t a great buy or great “SELL” either

corus / Tata steel IJmuiden velsen beverwijk
corus / Tata steel IJmuiden velsen beverwijk (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Choosing a daily headline is a challenge, quite so. Instead of helping and supporting you are acting like a pack of chihuahuas who have been given more than enough to eat . Write back on every post , this kind of reticent observation posts on my writing are not helping your cause (Dear Readers)

The Sun Group results, mostly Spicejet, tchah why would i call that or the iPhone launch a headline in any subdivision of this country let alone online with so many obervers, NRO accounts and eligible bachelorettes. That’s another franchise down the drainpipes. (gutterball, say!) I am not talking IPL though Sunrisers also went down rather for the same mismanagement.

Debt worries may have more to do with Spicejet losses, I would hve said on a cursory glance, so I leave that one to you . I am probably wrong as Bad Debt is definitely not my worry till I am operationally efficient and thus viable again. The entire new industry of innovation relies more on such mis-accidents and so any bank with an innovative model though feted by the markets would continue to go down in the melee and PSUs are not required to instead encourage losing sectors for Export

Each “Quimvadanti” above is a torture for any reader without ad libbing the rejoinder mind you

EM analysts are right that EMs have been scoring negatives thru 2013 and that the same will be recompensed without a Bull run though. However, India is getting inflows thru November and the so called funding trades are now just shorting down a blind alley every time for the heck of it as retail and DIIs stay away from buying. Portfolio buyers are alerady selecting known performers.

JSW Steel production counts are up to 12 MT for Crude Steel but I think the ratio of value added products , at less than 10% that in each variety ( 1 MT ea for 4-5 product “SKUs”) show the limited potential despite the use of advanced technologies in these traditional EM sectors where India does score over the more volatile China, Russia and Brazil. Rio Tinto had to recently leave after a small project to review the potential of Diamond mining among others and POSCO / Mittal have been exiting the Orissa wilderness, but the so called Economic loss may well be a gain. BPO lays claim in the mean time to furthering urbanisation as Tier 2 players post out their Top talent to the 30 odd 1 mln pop towns .

UB, according to ET, has lost 20% of volumes in TN also even as Fosters and Carlsberg move up in alcohol markets in the North. Beer and Whisy markets have plateaued in India again despite a crisis in the last 5 years , an early maturity we have long commented on , in India’s branded Consumer Staples (Discretionary) United Spirits is an easy sell though any pick on news is unlikely to last till Monday close and open positions over the weekend should be avoided, easy pickings for alt Asset cronies stymied for hedges and funding on a flat index

SELL on Private Banks like YES and Indusind or ICICI Bank (Traders 20) will fail again as the banking sector carries the seed for a lot of outperformance out ahead that India guarantees. Credit growth cycles need not renew as they are already back in India at 18% and longer term impacts in East Asia and Singapore are unlikely to trump local Indian growth in the sector as again it guarantees credit growth without the Europeans . Draghi’s rate cut though deserves a mention and the Euro has returned to growth again rapidly losing 1.38 odd levels to end at 1.33 before today’s London open. The London FX probe primarily started around the EUR-GBP cross trade ‘fixed’ by leading banks as sort of a ‘tradition’ as all global banks get busy in another imbroglio obviating the need to explain their non return to Asia.

Muthoot results boast of 620,000 gold accounts even as Gold Assets obviously went down in a bad year for Gold. Consumer recession or inflation impacts would have seen a spike in these assets held as collateral by the bank hopeful

JLR volumes up 32% are but a drop in the Ocean but any uptick post-results will impact Tata Steel holdings till Reliance results come around at least. Hold and add to Tata Steel positions

Siddharth Tewaris appointment is welcome for at least the continuity in policy it guarantees and one in fact hopes that RGR’s futher appointment as Governor indeed sets a precedent , a steping stone as CEA very visible to critics and friends and allowing a testing period for future governors and more importantly a cogent monetary policy

 

And why did Amazon come by underground sea cable?

Image representing Amazon as depicted in Crunc...
Image via CrunchBase

Amazon.com landed in India ahead of its First fulfilment center as its own internal business models are delightfully more complex than the country’s FDI,. sales tax and excise regulations. While packaging centers may get into excise inspector brouhaha with the Supreme Court adjudicating ( Freaky Friday Speculations)  adventurous Amazon executives may also be wary of getting subjected to multi Octroi, Sales tax and local taxes ahead of GST roll out in the country.

At least those are the typical silly stuff one avoids by starting a totally desi business in e commerce thence it can be sure of getting what Fabmall and now flipcart are getting in terms of taxes and accounting.

the testing of waters with junglee.com is however more likely to backfire till it comes with its full range of shipping made available at a safe and reliable amazon.in. Indian customers a re a ticklish lot and though they suspect nothing in government and business is above board they by and large do not expect to partake of that in their daily lives. We did not welcome the Apple stores till the latest iMacs and iPhones (iPods) were available simultaneously and we will not let Amazon get by on ebay like junglee.com.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos starts his High Orde...
Image via Wikipedia

FDI wise , trying to escape a multi brand regulation framework is going ot be impossible for amazon and waiting for amazon.in til 100% FDI is allowed would be one option that India phobes have shown favor for but likely that will only lose them more business in the World’s #2 English speaking Consumer market. The loss is all yours as Chindia trundles along.

Junglee.com itself came and left back in 1996 and now will feature 12 million products from 14000 brands to keep the portal available, but consumers are likely to wait till Amazon can get a clear decision, esp if it can introduce Prime here, international shipping is a bore and a real swindle on a retail shopper’s budget as Jeff Bezos would understand

Amazon gets nearer to India post?

Image representing Amazon as depicted in Crunc...
Image via CrunchBase

After Amazon opened in Spain last year and a rumor of Lipkart getting into the supply business for Amazon hit the circuits last, the talk of their first local fulfilment center show that while the talk of interested shoppers with Amazon was a fact unsubstantiated by country sales break down, the wishes for a local Amazon store may no longer be lost in getting their IT software to recruit here in as It happened one night in 2006

This warehouse is a critical piec eof the Amazon logistics chain promising delivery from US to far flung international destinations in as less as a week and probably includes ready shipping plans that can be tied

Screw Amazon.cominto Amazon Prime sooner than later. If it really turns into an independent India based website with Indian product ranges and a couple of expat managers, it could be that much bigger for Amazon and a bite back for Apple which has horrendously latched on to super premium pricing for its hot iPad and iPhone lines in the country

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: