Late Morning Trading Strategies – An Update By 10 Am (September 17, 2012)

 

Markets have not gone nose up on news and thus are unlikely to go belly up by next week. As unexpected as it was and as fruitless it might be the sectoral runs in Aviation and Broadcast channels have been well left alone, the improvement in FDI regime resulting in gains of 3% (JET) to 12% (SPICEJET) in aviationa nd 3% Broadcast Cable companies. Sensex is up 100 points.

Holders will gain and it is not really time for fresh buying. The commodities cycles are quite done in the big run up of last month according to us but shorts dio not have a clear run in silver or Copper or even ANtural Gas. Crude should go higher but not ithout a not so shallow correction. The Euro at 1.30 is pointing to a bottom for the Dollar being very nearby though some European investors have again taken Euro into their fold, saving it to 1.36-39 by the year end (HSBC)

The policy data comes out in a n hour

 

The retail lifestyle champions: Jet Airways saves face , buys new Boeings

Jet’s Q3 losses came at a low INR 1 bln as it saved up from asset sales of INR 1.7 bln and kep itself in operating profits. The jet order for 17 boeings will also help india’s Capital goods indices this month

Jet Airways ordered 737-400s and 500s for its fleet, probably exchanging out older Jet lite planes though it was its fourth straight loss since September /December 2010 conditions worsened in fuel cost overheads, wiping out gains from Jet Konect saving plans and this being their first of many sale and lease backs adopted by the Industry at Indigo and Jet Airways

On sales of INR 3437 Crs in December 2010, the airline flew 13% higher year on year and expects to keep growing sales if hikes are passed by AAAI and if no further costs imposed by DGCA action, the airline will keep posting cash profits

According to mint, CAPA revealed a loss of $30 per passenger in domestic flights in India. Kingfisher and Spicejet may not be able to hold their bottomlines to a sane number as they allow losses to reflect their financial uncertainty, demanding policy action/handouts

Godrej Properties purchase of INR 1.06 bln from the BKC premises and FX gains of INR 1.76 bln also stopped out losses but the airline bucked expectations of INR 3.5 bln in losses

  • Sale and Lease back allows it to keep Debt constant and it cana lso start paying the INR 14 0 bln debt from the SLB proceeds. The 17 aircraft are on options thus guaranteed at a good price.

How to make money in Lifestyle businesses!!

Coracias benghalensis English: An Indian Rolle...
Image via Wikipedia

Both Automobiles and viation industry are strongly hit by the current banking slowdown but more so because of energy and fuel costs as well as staffing costs making profits unlikely for the latter.

Both industries, however , remain the bright spot in India’s fabric of the future, leading growth segments in production and services. The car industry makes money in this unlikely scernario by passing on price hikes , with concurrent big doscounts of upto 10% while airlines wherre discounts ar part and parcel of all ticketing platforms till the d ay of travel, money ois also made in the usual charter/laundry list of udealised safety requirements as the DGCA report.

While Jet’s not running one third of its flights after announcing them because of poor occupancy, Indigo is reusing entire engines and forced to announce “premature engine removals” to keep its aircarft flight worthy. KFA reuses spares from grounded aircraft while it is avoiding paying salaries, both practices likely last

Departing on a test flight
Image via Wikipedia

resorts in a bind they only are responsible for. Spicejet int he meantime is yet to print or operationalise Flight operation manuals and thus does not spend much on quality assurance currently.

I’ll give you a dime, if you find this chaos live during your business/ personal last rush/ economy flight except if you have paid large diiscounts on your ticket (then also, only for certain personalities) It is mostly int he service, f course both industries spending on talent and retention in various ways

English: Logo of IndiGo Airlines.
Image via Wikipedia

Overseas FDI by India reaches $45 bln

Indian outbound FDI reached a $43.9 bln mark in 2011 till March 2011. This includes the Q2 purchase of

English: This photo was taken by Nikhil Kulkarni
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Airtel Africa (Zain ) in 2010 in 15 African countries. It also includes the $3 bln and more purchases of Shale by Reliance  across Pioneer, Atlas and other shale owners in the Marcelus and other shale areas in the USA.

FT reports the Sahara acquisition of Grosvenor House as the landmark UK investment while M&M snapped up the SSangyong SUV business in Korea for pennies in 2010-11 less than half a bln, rumored to be headed for Saab from Spykar this year M&M scraped its ventures with Ford (earliest) and Nissan – Renault ( 2008) as it still produces the M&M Verito on production lines set up to produce Logan and Nissan’s India car to be designed by them.

Liquor baron, MP and Force India owner meanwhile is embattled in a fight for the survival of Kingfisher Airlines and Tata consolidating its JLR and Corus steel purchases from more than 3 years ago. Indian Financial services business never reached the required scale overseas either but carries a book of more than INR 8 Tln or  $ 160  bln in SBI and $3 Tln or $60 bln in ICICI Bank following on the heels of Chinese and US Top 4 with over $225 bln in assets each

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