India Morning Report: Just Dial IPO great hai ji, Rupee feeling quiggly

Image used to convey the idea of currency conv...
Image used to convey the idea of currency conversion (originally from en.wikipedia). The signs are (clockwise from top-left): dollar, euro, pound, shekel, đồng, yen. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Markets opened to the new week’s excited chatter for a change this morning after a few weeks but the better IPO prospects and improved FII flows already more than $2. B this week could not excite the Rupee and it again opened at its lowest for the week above 55 as Forex broke on last months Gold data and apparently has become the exit for bears that know they are unwanted, trying to break the cosy relationship between currency and equities in Asia and dragging down equities towards the afternoon. Rupee, with my apologies to the surfeit of economists at the top Mr Prime Minister, is just reacting to India’s weak international diplomacy.

We should have probably given you a heads up in the morning, but revenue and subscriber prospects fail to excite indian angels into backing such ventures as ours, bent on writing and interest in firings at ecommerce carts or exits from PE investments of the last cycle not enouraging towards commercially viable prospects for analysts, writers and discretionary advisers. IPO sizes are getting comfortable around the INR 1000 crore and above mark and went thru with out a hitch despite a surfeit of promoter buy backs and appetite for indian debt has also increased manifold in the last two years

Bullish straddles/strangles are cheaper and you should not fund with calls unless beyond the 6400 mark. China premier Le Keqiang’s visit to the Capital could have been much more fruitful if the premier had tried to get more pulic awareness around it, India of course happy to have exited US defence exercises to get status quo in play at Ladakh ahead of the visit. No that China is looking to allow India banks or exporters further as it continues to keep a chinese only list for government tenders and machinery ( esp green power) bids

Those who thought Indus ind would catch again would have retreated after these two weeks and especially because apart from the positive wall offered by YES, it is also a better choice portfolio for pickers across infracos esp those looking at idfc, itc, jpassoc and gmr where buying would be perfect value plays esp if any DIIs had been carry cash for the redemptions and the volatiity turn awaiting

No, the Rupee is not going back to 52-53 levels immediately though S&P’s reservations have not been of interest to any FIIs and we would like to err on the side of caution ourselves with the CAD at ever higher levels though as the CEA mentioned the reduction in CAD faster than the reduction in Fiscal should help drive growth come 2014 And yes, Lets not forget our natural advantages as a consumption and trading economy at the bottom of the commodities cycle unlike the competition

India Morning Report: Bharti Airtel improves India offtakes, pecking order unlikely to change for markets

Bharti Airtel Lanka
Bharti Airtel Lanka (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

The improvement in EBITDA to 31.7% obviates the other stream of bad profits from Bharti and one can wait for the stock to become available under 280 but the reassuring move from 275-330 is well safe as the dust settles down on another quarter on sharp cuts in reported profit again likely affected by one time items surging thru the global major’s rupee balance sheet every other quarter. Within, Telecom Bharti remains #1 in new customer acquisition data for March as well close to 3 million new connections in mobility and revenue increases seem defined upticks than Tata and rel Comm’s occassional blips into civilisation before going back. ARPU is no longer an orphaned series at INR 195 per month. The earlier quarter ARPU was at 193 and probably year ago as low as INR 188

 

Bharti’s INR 60 B Africa revenues too count for a major incursion into India’s new favorite FDI market since 2008, gaining FDI volumes close to China’s push FDI in the dark continent. One has however capped that $15 B investment as resource sectors apart , tales of stability and consumption in Congo and Somalia are more the exception than the rule

 

Brand India in the meantime relies again on infraco fund infusion but as election years go, this one may still be counted as one of the more peaceful with rare positive excursions by FIIs and outside India analysts into the country even when news from ECB and Fed remains critical to the direction and size of funds flows in the markets

 

Banks have been subdued for the Bankex and the Banknifty trading lower from all time highs in ait for an opportunity but some components of the bank sector indices are still likely to head south and negate the just aborted psu rally on their own steam as the difference within the PSU herd also shines and the threat of new competition makes the private sector bans stampede the rural consumption markets faster and grow back the consumption story still going strong in unbridled double digit CPI series for both rural and urban. IIP services data follows on Friday and as it would compare across US, Europe and China, it may well define strength for India inc.

 

Manufacturing R&D as a business segment has reached $10 B in India from more than 200 captive units of global majors, while pharma outsourcing is likely to regain captive strength as wwelll in light of the affordability linked rulings in Indian courts. China meanwhile is a real physical threat knocking us on the borders in its own inimitable ‘sleight of hand’ show on Ladakh and Arunachal borders showing up the importance of increasing defence allocations and arms spending while the Freight corridors and even the NMP supercities of Dholera seem to be threatened by the lack of movement on Land reform bills and external funding

 

 

 

India’s Defence Procurement: Finally being offered the F35 Lightning IIs

An F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, marked AA-1, lan...
Image via Wikipedia

India’ s requirement for Multi-role Combat Aircraft invited bids from seemingly the best but on felt shortchanged with F16 on offers from Lockheed Martin, and similarily Boeing offered something below par. However even if we have chosen to go ahead with Eurofighters/Rafale’s from Europe, now that US is willing to offer the MMRCA creme de la creme without fear of misuse of its ‘technology’ India should not ignore the progress on the relationship front with the USA and go back tp the drawing board. Owning F35 LIIs will be good for a morale and if US is not really serious about this ‘dangling carrot’ then it will expose that lie as well. I’d say give the Eurofighters a rest and give

GWALIOR AIR FORCE STATION,bareilly air force b...
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Lockheed a chance

However, that will only further increase the budget which is already a good $20 bln. Buying 126 aircraft with long range arrangements on the Sukhoi 30 being built in India with Stealth technology being also done, probably will start another round of bickering over who to listen to, but it may be worth not investing the country’s scarce resource in suspect technologies rather than just throw the entire defence budget into the sea.

India is already investing in the new C130s with Lockheed ( we are buying 6 C130s) and one cannot

A C130 performing a Low Altitude Parachute Ext...
Image via Wikipedia

but feel that technically the go ahead given to Euro technologies may be treading on thin water..

The modernization of the IAF fleet was long overdue and we should make sure we make long-standing decisions than go on with half cooked broth because we were in Ladakh at some point.

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