INDIA MORNING REPORT: A Bid on the State Bank results, are Coal and Steel indeed back?

Tata Steel which pushed out another round of poor results struggling in its European pick up is ready to open new capacities for production in 2014 in Odisha and Steel may indeed pick up though not a fast ramp up with China struggling ( Open tomorrow after New Year festivities) and Domestic Auto production for one will also be out of the woods within this fiscal as low rates trickle down and consumption spending remains a norm for the younger demographic india enjoys.

New Auto capacities in Sanand and in Tamil Nadu (Ford) as well as continuing growth in Gurgaon and Manesar will lend strength to India’s consolidation auto saales while the increasing cars on the road strike another discord of insufficient highways by 2014 or 2015 and int he meantime the fiscal strength discussion between MSA and Chidu may well be more important for active wholesale Investors to watch and may careen or tank up FII flows as appropriate.

The ratings companies could have grown their franchise but have faltered in the politically opportune moments and are not likely to partner up with Indian banks and corporates in the given plop of bird produce that India begets in their global schema, leading one to wonder in cogent terms if they will indeed survive into the next decade as ratingcos.

But that is so inadroitly expressed even I just know it is a valid hypothesis for trendatchers that RatingCos are likely redundant and center of the ne fallout before 2020 in the Financial world as it tries to come out of the 2008 crisis and bad RoE math that strikes its every rich yielding FICC and Equity trading businesses and even conservative and High yield lending and issuance.

The Bank nifty will likely run up a good score without going 3-Cliff on expectations of better improving resuults if SBI delivers on expectations and does not do another Q4 washout of expectations as India’s largest bank, having presumably cleaned its augean stables and dealt with pension liabilities and in possession of a clean retail portfoliosince they strated building it up 6 quarters ago.

Even though PSU banks have been rerated 40% down in the Banknifty the current strength in banking from 12400 is contingent on State Bank being in the green and ready to take off from atleast 2080 levels and the results need to build up from the current 2250 levels to atleast 2400 to let the others with good and bad results of the wuarter convince the maarket of the Fiscal and FY14 performance potential especially at BOB , PNB and All Bank. Axis ICICI and HDFC Bank should have no problems maintaining current levels

 

Morning Trading Strategies – India July 30, 2012

 

ICICI BANK And IDFC start trending down when the exodus becomes clear in the coming weeks esp after the GDP data.  TILL THEN ICICI BANK may actually reach never before highs with ITC ITC results up 20% were an eye opener after they showed up plateauing on consumer brand sales in Q4 data Consumer brands do show continuing losses (minor) but traction shows capability to tap the 10X higher unorganised market in Atta, Oil and readymade foods.

Regardless of HDFC’s 20% higher profits the Consolidated income of INR12.75B, the markets remain topped off and likely candidates while the rupee wants to correct to the Dollar to 54 levels before trying a jump, leaving markets pushing for an upside.

However, my earnings capacity and the trade in the Rupee Dollar have been hit adversely as I get targeted in the ring to sort out their confusion on the irection of how to get out of a dollar positive trade because of the weak markets.

Marti’s scores in Q2 were bad but more than results actions in Manesar and its swift rebirth in Gujarata this time are going to have positive ticks on the price sooner than later. BIOCON and healthcare upside has definitely been ;lost excep t for one shadow snook with the telco stocks. The IT jump is illusory but if you hold them, it is good for you

Someone did say PSU bank shorts, but if you try CBI or even UBI they may be climbing back today.

Snatch and Jerk (Intraday) therefore offers few available opportunities left on the shelf. 

No need to add positions now when you can get them cheap later BOB and PNB should infact come back into the green and rise sooner than later. Indusind is not a good pick. Yes Bank holds.

 

National Manufacturing Policy / Zones

The NIMZ cities identified in the latest manufacturing policy area compendium of all identified microsites and

English: A new train, made in Germany by Bomba...
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large successes of India in manufacturing policy over the last decade. Japan funded Delhi Mumbai infra corridor, the industrial zone at Manesar or the village Dholera in Gujarat identified for investment can start in quick time. The Dedicated Freiht Corridor needs $7-8 bln, the DMIC even $40 bln or INR 2 Tln for itself, Japanese providing $10 bln and Private sector to be willing ot invest the rest

With a new Land acquisition bill, which nevertheless does not make it easy for someone to single handedly establish or grow a city in the wilderness( attract good talent for one, attract suppliers and ensure all resources in supply for another)  is still as difficult but where land acquisition and construction for manufacturing can begin like in Manesar, Haryana or Dholera , Gujarat can show the way to others if done right. Unfortunately winners do not include last decades export successes like Textiles and Auto ancilliaries and Services will be denied its place in the sun if it remains a National “manufacturing” Policy. The Buddh International Arena in UP near New Delhi with a NCR, Delhi address tag is a great success showcase for others.

Also, like Indian banks being told off in foreign lands, foreign banks in India like ICBC and CCB that have just opened should not be allowed to club their business with that of the parent country as it will stifle local opportunity esp where such large investments are expected by local satraps and a regular scam-o-rama is keeping the media busy from 2G to Mamta Banerjee Europe , in contrast has global companies and diaspora ( not remittances) that make such partnerships with banks global in thei rvery nature instead. Sadly some of them will leave or forfeit plans of growing in retail if they ever nodded to RBI

A couple of other ‘contradictions’ have to be managed in India, including letting farmers a share of real estate profit with the new bill in hand allowing prices without governemnt interference, delevraging required in the real estate satraps specialised for such acquisition incl DLF, JSW and maybe JP ( not delevraging but has hands fuull) or the new crop wlike India bulls and Adani which have to bear the blame for endless delays in the Power sector or the consumption successes like PVR and mall owners who are making profits only in the super luxury investments. Also India’s labor participation rates could soon be dropping below 65% ( nearly a low 60% in the mediterranean Euro crisis owners) and US that provided a great land of opportunity for educated talent from this country, also suffering a low participation rate of 64%

Interesingly India’s export growth, still keeps machinery in the largest categories, and should soon include

The Rashtrapati Bhawan which is the residence ...
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pharmaceuticals as well. Perhaps Farming can be mechanised, along with Textile cities and Auto ancilliary dreams. Loan mela, anyone?

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