India Morning Report: Nifty treads lightly as shorts disappear (Priced to 6300+ levels )

English: The West stand of the Tata Steel Stadium.
English: The West stand of the Tata Steel Stadium. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Monday saw 6100 losing the pins as markets drew interest from investors on good Reliance results. TCS follows. IT and Pharma  outperforming expectations similarily throughout will probably see that elusive 6400 mark to set a new Nifty record it at least seems improbably probable.  Short hedges should move up to 6600 and 68-6900 levels this week or next.  The 6300 call continues to see increasing prospects of a devolving positions as the short trade exits the market. Tata Motors, Tata Steel and Idea may remain strong except for funding trades to enter short profit positions in results calendar Private Banks remain dull as the higher interest regime and larger account restructuring news and its containment are both seen as  insufficient and unresolved.

As i write, Indusind is reporting a 37% jump in NII., largely from retail yields as NPAs were contained with market borrowings helped the profits. The cost of deposits if an issue is also likely to nettle the smaller candidates as th month’s bank policy confirms continue the higher interest rate regime.

The 6200 market will likely be reached except for a sharp negative news trend with less than 4-5% probability and will continue with IT and Pharma keeping “beat expectations” premium and Metals incl Hindalco and Tata Steel or the M&M picks counting for more buying and thus volumes of trade as the scrips also need  boost in liquidity. IDFC and YES, or Bharti, ITC and Bajaj Auto will spring any consolidated market moves. ICICI Bank is finally consolidating to positive marks and Bank Nifty may se a change of the flatlined visage before the end of the week but still unlikely.

10 year yields have hit the 8.65% level but this might just be an aberration as new securities get hocked on Friday with the 10 year adding INR 70 Bln

 

India Morning Report: Crude down, Gold trade dead, MSF cut a real boon?

Boon Lay Extension
Boon Lay Extension (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sorry, I’d rather understand why the party for reduction in MSF and INR 170 Bln of Borrowing added in .25% of the Deposits. The channel to the low repo rate of 7.50% is still 150 points after the cut and the 10 yr yields are not really expected to move south from 8.6% ‘except at the low rate of’ 50 basis points in the next three months it had already proffered before Rajan made the change.

Anyway, markets at least recognize or get their bank spokespersons/contacts to say banks are at ease again so the 5950 mark has come. already on the markets. the Upward potential is truly limited at this juncture, all the media noise budget (DAVP one mite bite) for showing activity in the Economy not making up for the spending cuts to stay  in and the investments still a far way off.

Again, however, markets per se are undervalued excpt that they wait on such changes in fundamentals which are India’s bane for moving up while China gets a free look again just for having underperformed as it finds no legs in manufacturing worth reviving the Economy in goods production.

Cabbage Market
Cabbage Market (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Rajan seemingly has made it clear he will be taking the Repo rate up again, and as the October meet approaches, markets will be equally quick to reach the bottom of the 5750 – 6000 range of the markets. the Reo rate at 7.50% already looks steep enough to me esp as trading markets stay idled to a high rate pre Taper.

I rather liked the Welfare flavor of August & September and wonder if it will come back again. At least its things we can do. The exchange rate is no good at 61.77, and hopefully its just waiting to go u to 60 levels as signs of others interested in the breakdown to 77-78 recede.

The inflation rate Formulatonomics of getting to that ratio as differential to  ‘PPP’ are rather lost to most with a real India, Economics or Finance background though.

You want PPP, you should go for a reference you can live with and that still counts as the Mac or the Pizza probably where we are definitely looking for a rate under 40 instead.

Indian inflation would count as facts show as deadbeat deflation at 6% itself, as the Economy at 4% is almost a dead duck in the water ( in India references, it being the flat minimum of National activity)

India Morning Report: banks weaker in the new week. Market affirms Capped below 5500

 

Fortune (magazine)
Fortune (magazine) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

As we digressed from networked opinion on Tursday / Friday, there is no such thing as the 5500 mark for the market as leaching gets underway. Barings PE in the mean time made a play for a 135 per share valuation for Hexaware, the only Fortune 500 roster which has never operationalized a growth strategy meaningfully. Apparently growth is already underway at Hexaware and this is not a play at capping India’s further Dollar erosion led woes in the future or a transparent play at India’s notorious inefficiency stability motive. A Hexaware and a KPIT do gain disproportionately from the Dollar’s move against the Rupee as they price transparently and Hexaware also has untamed T&M contracts that price at competitive levels onsite and thus remained Dollar heavy, unhedged at least n the nineties. Most others have lost the Mid Cap IT space from investing in product and premium services and/or Indian Rupee/Output based pricing still capped in the$50 mln realised deal values after years of wooing.

 

Banks got cut mercilessly waiting for the HTM circular (SBI, is waiting as always) and saliently otherwise:

 

The Bifty(BankNifty)’s ‘stuck-up-pance’ at 9400 saved the straddles on the Nifty which you should have sold if you were in the market after the first hour in the morning.

 

The rupee is starting the new climb again as the Rbi loses room to intervene and stays away after this week.

 

No, these are not conventional range bound trades.

 

Yes, we did not anticipate the market to wait so assiduously for Thursday expir which can now assumed to be the final plan.

 

No, being quiet is not a bad strategy.

 

Yes, the big roller from the Fed as they leave Jackson Hole is on target and I am trying to figure out why $10 Bln is a good start apart from that everyone knows that number.

 

It is that $12 Bln would be too fast and $20 Bln a virtual unending panic, $8 Bln an equally good vote of confidence and any number below $5 Bln not enough to redact(the literary device for fabricated on paper) the surfeit of liquidity let loose on everyone. But then thats just because we started with $10 Bln. That just means the Fed would be buying $75Bln worth , and that should be a good start for equities to break into a done and bring back confidence in EM economy investments only at the end of one such full cycle of investments which may be as short as 2 months in US markets but for another sell down in bonds(domestically)

 

Held to Maturity classification clears the grounds for banks to carry bonds while double digit rates reign. !0 year yields are still rising in India and policy rates stand at risk of being increased too after the liquidity crisis is hung

 

 

 

India Morning Report: The Rupee, it counts 62..63..64..65..66..67..68

English: Cumulative Current Account Balance fr...
English: Cumulative Current Account Balance from 1980 till 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Fixed income Desks at Banks of course would like others to believe everyone was trading the 9.5% -10% range probably but closer to the market after a small tweak in SLR and the confirmation of lack of MTM losses excet for the 5-6% in AFS, desks returned to trading 10- year yields between 8.33% – 8.5% and the OMO tomorrow may revert the auction yields to same levels after the 12.27% auction on Monday. The FOMC was crystal clear in its depositions as seen in the minutes that the markets were in for a leaner September and so it will be, will be as Asian currencies suggested in the morning before Indian markets opened. . There may not be many trades at the 64-65 levels even as the interlinked ‘100% plus’ correlations pushing the volatilities out have receded esp with fixed income yields above.

 

The lesson for traditional Economists and probably our Chief Economist C Rangarajan also that the Indian Economic Cycle does not really lend itself to the trade deficit being the Consumption Gap. As one might see in this year’s turn of events in June itself, the drying of consumption had absolutely no relation to the high prevailing CAD which is more directly linked to Investments in the Economy and Savings, leading from curb on Gold for lower deficits till such imports uncoil again and jump the deficit forward propelled by high Savings and zero investment. CPI again showed that Non durables will be able to transmit pricing shocks but all is not well with Millers as they pay for pampering farmers in UP across successive state governments.

 

Energy Companies lead the second tier of the rebound stocks as Bharti and ITC reach their true value at 300 levels and metals lead the banks to improving cognition of the market ( witness Banknifty at 9350, though the 9600 mark was reached and lost as if in a dream) There is actually no way to call a bottom of a currency where nothing is bought and domestic consumption is so independent of imports. And the Dollar will stay strong thru September from the looks of it. So, 70 is just the mark they can see right now probably without pooling selling interests across the dozen odd active desks that at least follow the currency. Linking that to NPAs may similarily not work because the stock of Private Dollar debt is mostly fresh and definitely ss than even $50 Bln despite all the new issuance. If old models were to be followed, the irascible Oil market’s considerable control in price increases is all but lost and Rupee could eve start rising back but that is no longer a valid reason for anyone to hold as a single seller could control the market till even 80 levels and Export volumes are not corresponding to increasing import requirements

 

 

 

 

 

India Morning Report: A dark light envelops India Markets as the longest tunnel is in play

The New Sea Link
The New Sea Link (Photo credit: Prashant Menon)

There is a light at the end of the tunnel. After all Sun Pharma has retraced to 425 and Ashwini Gujral is recommending a short on Axis Bank, with the Axis Bank bulls freely shorting probably the naked shorts that make up a new residual market of speculators as PCRs stay in a lower range with FIIs not adding more short hedges.

VIX India is having fun at everyone’s expense getting back at markets for being called bad all over and staying increasingly bad. The Morning has already see the rupee enter the new range box between 64 to 68 and so it is unlikely that it will recover to 62.50 or that this is the last stage of the capitulation move.

But yet the new negative momentum in the indices is looking to close out this move in this week itself with a $100 Bln exit by FIIs on Friday necessitating a grave distance covered on Monday and now on Tuesday the same is likely. That means the indices could well compete with double digit yields targets on 10 year paper and the currency targets ( if any) to hit 5000 by Friday close and provide a respite week next week.

JP Associates and infracos have not started back and private exchanges and therefore promoters linked to that may not yet ever make positive lists again

I am like a kid, hoping the Banknifty cut today means the Reserve Bank has thrown the banks out to the wolves asking them to mark all holdings to market and push out a mandatory minimum to AFS portfolios. But then there are those that still think below 8 yields will be back

Buy Power NBFCs and Bajaj Auto has also finished its last moves. LIC Housing for one other NBFC can probably not move down after it hits 130 levels

Vidyasagar Setu, commonly known as the Second ...
Vidyasagar Setu, commonly known as the Second Hooghly Bridge or Second Howrah Bridge, is a bridge over the Hooghly River in West Bengal, India. It links the cities of Howrah and Kolkata. The bridge is a toll bridge. It is one of the longest bridges of multi Cable-stayed type in India and one of the longest in Asia. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

India Morning Report: There is the Rupee and then the equity markets…

Map of South Asia in native languages.
Map of South Asia in native languages. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Frankly, there is nothing much to hold the markets after they broke 5500 and the markets below 5000 Nifty levels are likely though still not extremely likely as values identified in the Top 20 liquid counters will probably include those already having fallen to their lowest levels of this rally’s beginnings or within 10% of the same as ITC and Bharti Airtel indicate. That also means institutional buying that has resumed in bits and pieces will characterise this market thru the breakdown. Even though Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan also put on a brave face and assumed Fixed income to be just duly following the currency mechanics, structurally markets are ready to ignore the falling Rupee between 64 and 68 once it starts that leg. I personally do not think interest rates derived from FX have any significant accurate behaviour, esp where in India both markets are relatively illiquid and dependent on key PDs for volume business

 

Though nominal growth is unlikely to be the promised 15%, shift to it sector has created an exchange that is leading scrips to oblivion and not really any structural factors as they remain exactly where we always were. Infrastructure and Metal sectors are actually at their best take off points now both for Fixed income and equity QIPs the latter a little harsh for promoters, and secondary market floats in infracos could find considerable long term investor demand soaking it up.

 

Similarly, rating agencies’ almost junk BBB-/BA2 ratings on India are in fact already indicative of this breakdown and may not need a correction giving the rating agencies to correct their now identified goodwill gap in asia esp india and South Asia, that can thence merit a suitable upward notch everytime CAD is actually brought into control. Strange, but true.

 

Fixed income markets are set to lead the way meanwhile to double digit yields on the 10 year bond already hitting 8.95% in morning trades as Rupee takes up 62.3 levels before moving on to 63.30 ( TV18/CLSA) as the next Technical target. Banks presumaly are also paying for their investment portfolio breakdown in this move and do not have fresh cash to borrow and place in the 11% short term and even the 8-9% 10 – 30 year bonds for substitution of current loss making AFS and not taking everything to HTM.

 

One year down the line, with a stable government maybe instead of hiking deposit rates we will see the yields going south again. Oil is back above $110 levels and Indian buying will comfortably take out 67 levels for the Rupee

 

 

 

Bank Policy Tuesday: 90% expect a rate cut. Sorry, says RBI Governor. India wins.

Despite the political improbability of this being counted as a standoff by the understanding P Chidambaram, this will be the most advocated course by us as Indian Food inflation starts into gear and despite non Food inflation now being below 4% the banks’ predisposition to trust their models earning a good profit in such rate cut cycles and the lack of transmission of last rate cut to bank rates across the board means the RBI governor will have more wiggle room later if he leaves rates untouched.

That is some simple policy math weighed in by a outside in look at the markets busy in the ranged groove. Market economists are hemmed in by the lack of bullish global prospects despite a healthy prognosis for 2013 just two months ago. CAD remains dangerously teetering on the brink and can easily be held hostage by Oil and other imports. Gold imports  have not been capped off. Fisc parameters have not been resolved.

Indian markets have showed the same audacity for a bullish candle if only they  were allowed to bully the experts and the pragmatic Duvvoori Subbarao. Most experts thus have agreed to a rate cut tomorrow as more likely but have correspondingly cut down on the wiggle room for growth in even 2014 and definitely the rest of 2013. While Bank Policy could traditionally go for a rate cut now, the only room it will have in the future is to nod sagely and say ‘we told you so’. The 6.8% WPI is no measure of the 11% CPI and never the twain shall meet.

This is not the last stand for central bank led monetary policy however and if rates are indeed not cut now and market forces continue to engender the positive turnaround in IIP , the Q3 policy in December 2013 could look much more positive and we could be near a good take off point where consecutive cuts could then support growth. A 10 Y yield at 7.75% therefore is no bad news and the guv has all my good faith support if he lets the rate cut go unannounced tomorrow. 

India Morning Report: Bharti, IDFC and BHEL make it a heavy result oriented day

A PTV onboard a flight to Abu Dhabi.
A PTV onboard a flight to Abu Dhabi. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Though the market watchers are almost thirsty for a correction in the new series, habituated to aa trading range being established in a market that has more than INR 10 T in daily volumes on a good day and INR 4 tln in turnover including derivative volumes almost everyday. The Nifty Call interest has moved from 6000 to 6100 but is short interest and is safe enough as the markets do not look hungry for a move beyond 6100. However, the market is holding and we stick to our ‘call’ of 6000 being an almost distant minimum for the series as big ticket Results from Bharti, IDFC and BHEL follow ICICI Bank, Satyam and Bharti Infratel’s good showings yesterday.

Profit taking has almost ticked up to normal levels with the markets taking the profit taking in its stride in Private Banks and other blue chips including ITC and Glenmark Pharm. IDFC could start a new move today and Ambani cos. follow after their result surge backed down by Monday. ICICI Bank could also start back after the immediate discounting of its par results as its above par situation catches on and markets decide that corrected levels are unlikely to cede new ground. India VIX remains subdued making it more possible each passing trading day that a new high will be made this year.

Jet is likely to sign the dotted line with Etihad this week and UAE’s #3 carrier look to fast recouping of market shares from leaders post consolidation with Jet in terms of synergistic operations

The surging CPI data to 14% and the slowdown in Consumer staples including QSR and snack foods highlighted in ET forget to note that India consumers have easily digested the over 2000 pizza and other QSR restaurants and the growing market sustained by Tier 2 towns despite KFC and Pizza hut;’s earlier failures to expand the category in India. Also optimistic projections in Real Estate industry highlighting the record number of new launches though pointing to over capacity int he future point to a good 2013 with a record 500k new homes being handed over to retail customers this year.

The Rupee is also likely to capitalise on Dollar’s misfortunes without hurting Exporters as Euro and Yen coast to new records after an unprecedented contraction in GDP was reported in the US bringing the year’s growth down to 2%

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