India Morning Report: Nifty treads lightly as shorts disappear (Priced to 6300+ levels )

English: The West stand of the Tata Steel Stadium.
English: The West stand of the Tata Steel Stadium. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Monday saw 6100 losing the pins as markets drew interest from investors on good Reliance results. TCS follows. IT and Pharma  outperforming expectations similarily throughout will probably see that elusive 6400 mark to set a new Nifty record it at least seems improbably probable.  Short hedges should move up to 6600 and 68-6900 levels this week or next.  The 6300 call continues to see increasing prospects of a devolving positions as the short trade exits the market. Tata Motors, Tata Steel and Idea may remain strong except for funding trades to enter short profit positions in results calendar Private Banks remain dull as the higher interest regime and larger account restructuring news and its containment are both seen as  insufficient and unresolved.

As i write, Indusind is reporting a 37% jump in NII., largely from retail yields as NPAs were contained with market borrowings helped the profits. The cost of deposits if an issue is also likely to nettle the smaller candidates as th month’s bank policy confirms continue the higher interest rate regime.

The 6200 market will likely be reached except for a sharp negative news trend with less than 4-5% probability and will continue with IT and Pharma keeping “beat expectations” premium and Metals incl Hindalco and Tata Steel or the M&M picks counting for more buying and thus volumes of trade as the scrips also need  boost in liquidity. IDFC and YES, or Bharti, ITC and Bajaj Auto will spring any consolidated market moves. ICICI Bank is finally consolidating to positive marks and Bank Nifty may se a change of the flatlined visage before the end of the week but still unlikely.

10 year yields have hit the 8.65% level but this might just be an aberration as new securities get hocked on Friday with the 10 year adding INR 70 Bln


India Morning Report: Crude down, Gold trade dead, MSF cut a real boon?

Boon Lay Extension
Boon Lay Extension (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sorry, I’d rather understand why the party for reduction in MSF and INR 170 Bln of Borrowing added in .25% of the Deposits. The channel to the low repo rate of 7.50% is still 150 points after the cut and the 10 yr yields are not really expected to move south from 8.6% ‘except at the low rate of’ 50 basis points in the next three months it had already proffered before Rajan made the change.

Anyway, markets at least recognize or get their bank spokespersons/contacts to say banks are at ease again so the 5950 mark has come. already on the markets. the Upward potential is truly limited at this juncture, all the media noise budget (DAVP one mite bite) for showing activity in the Economy not making up for the spending cuts to stay  in and the investments still a far way off.

Again, however, markets per se are undervalued excpt that they wait on such changes in fundamentals which are India’s bane for moving up while China gets a free look again just for having underperformed as it finds no legs in manufacturing worth reviving the Economy in goods production.

Cabbage Market
Cabbage Market (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Rajan seemingly has made it clear he will be taking the Repo rate up again, and as the October meet approaches, markets will be equally quick to reach the bottom of the 5750 – 6000 range of the markets. the Reo rate at 7.50% already looks steep enough to me esp as trading markets stay idled to a high rate pre Taper.

I rather liked the Welfare flavor of August & September and wonder if it will come back again. At least its things we can do. The exchange rate is no good at 61.77, and hopefully its just waiting to go u to 60 levels as signs of others interested in the breakdown to 77-78 recede.

The inflation rate Formulatonomics of getting to that ratio as differential to  ‘PPP’ are rather lost to most with a real India, Economics or Finance background though.

You want PPP, you should go for a reference you can live with and that still counts as the Mac or the Pizza probably where we are definitely looking for a rate under 40 instead.

Indian inflation would count as facts show as deadbeat deflation at 6% itself, as the Economy at 4% is almost a dead duck in the water ( in India references, it being the flat minimum of National activity)

India Morning Report: banks weaker in the new week. Market affirms Capped below 5500


Fortune (magazine)
Fortune (magazine) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


As we digressed from networked opinion on Tursday / Friday, there is no such thing as the 5500 mark for the market as leaching gets underway. Barings PE in the mean time made a play for a 135 per share valuation for Hexaware, the only Fortune 500 roster which has never operationalized a growth strategy meaningfully. Apparently growth is already underway at Hexaware and this is not a play at capping India’s further Dollar erosion led woes in the future or a transparent play at India’s notorious inefficiency stability motive. A Hexaware and a KPIT do gain disproportionately from the Dollar’s move against the Rupee as they price transparently and Hexaware also has untamed T&M contracts that price at competitive levels onsite and thus remained Dollar heavy, unhedged at least n the nineties. Most others have lost the Mid Cap IT space from investing in product and premium services and/or Indian Rupee/Output based pricing still capped in the$50 mln realised deal values after years of wooing.


Banks got cut mercilessly waiting for the HTM circular (SBI, is waiting as always) and saliently otherwise:


The Bifty(BankNifty)’s ‘stuck-up-pance’ at 9400 saved the straddles on the Nifty which you should have sold if you were in the market after the first hour in the morning.


The rupee is starting the new climb again as the Rbi loses room to intervene and stays away after this week.


No, these are not conventional range bound trades.


Yes, we did not anticipate the market to wait so assiduously for Thursday expir which can now assumed to be the final plan.


No, being quiet is not a bad strategy.


Yes, the big roller from the Fed as they leave Jackson Hole is on target and I am trying to figure out why $10 Bln is a good start apart from that everyone knows that number.


It is that $12 Bln would be too fast and $20 Bln a virtual unending panic, $8 Bln an equally good vote of confidence and any number below $5 Bln not enough to redact(the literary device for fabricated on paper) the surfeit of liquidity let loose on everyone. But then thats just because we started with $10 Bln. That just means the Fed would be buying $75Bln worth , and that should be a good start for equities to break into a done and bring back confidence in EM economy investments only at the end of one such full cycle of investments which may be as short as 2 months in US markets but for another sell down in bonds(domestically)


Held to Maturity classification clears the grounds for banks to carry bonds while double digit rates reign. !0 year yields are still rising in India and policy rates stand at risk of being increased too after the liquidity crisis is hung




India Morning Report: The Rupee, it counts 62..63..64..65..66..67..68

English: Cumulative Current Account Balance fr...
English: Cumulative Current Account Balance from 1980 till 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


Fixed income Desks at Banks of course would like others to believe everyone was trading the 9.5% -10% range probably but closer to the market after a small tweak in SLR and the confirmation of lack of MTM losses excet for the 5-6% in AFS, desks returned to trading 10- year yields between 8.33% – 8.5% and the OMO tomorrow may revert the auction yields to same levels after the 12.27% auction on Monday. The FOMC was crystal clear in its depositions as seen in the minutes that the markets were in for a leaner September and so it will be, will be as Asian currencies suggested in the morning before Indian markets opened. . There may not be many trades at the 64-65 levels even as the interlinked ‘100% plus’ correlations pushing the volatilities out have receded esp with fixed income yields above.


The lesson for traditional Economists and probably our Chief Economist C Rangarajan also that the Indian Economic Cycle does not really lend itself to the trade deficit being the Consumption Gap. As one might see in this year’s turn of events in June itself, the drying of consumption had absolutely no relation to the high prevailing CAD which is more directly linked to Investments in the Economy and Savings, leading from curb on Gold for lower deficits till such imports uncoil again and jump the deficit forward propelled by high Savings and zero investment. CPI again showed that Non durables will be able to transmit pricing shocks but all is not well with Millers as they pay for pampering farmers in UP across successive state governments.


Energy Companies lead the second tier of the rebound stocks as Bharti and ITC reach their true value at 300 levels and metals lead the banks to improving cognition of the market ( witness Banknifty at 9350, though the 9600 mark was reached and lost as if in a dream) There is actually no way to call a bottom of a currency where nothing is bought and domestic consumption is so independent of imports. And the Dollar will stay strong thru September from the looks of it. So, 70 is just the mark they can see right now probably without pooling selling interests across the dozen odd active desks that at least follow the currency. Linking that to NPAs may similarily not work because the stock of Private Dollar debt is mostly fresh and definitely ss than even $50 Bln despite all the new issuance. If old models were to be followed, the irascible Oil market’s considerable control in price increases is all but lost and Rupee could eve start rising back but that is no longer a valid reason for anyone to hold as a single seller could control the market till even 80 levels and Export volumes are not corresponding to increasing import requirements






India Morning Report: A dark light envelops India Markets as the longest tunnel is in play

The New Sea Link
The New Sea Link (Photo credit: Prashant Menon)

There is a light at the end of the tunnel. After all Sun Pharma has retraced to 425 and Ashwini Gujral is recommending a short on Axis Bank, with the Axis Bank bulls freely shorting probably the naked shorts that make up a new residual market of speculators as PCRs stay in a lower range with FIIs not adding more short hedges.

VIX India is having fun at everyone’s expense getting back at markets for being called bad all over and staying increasingly bad. The Morning has already see the rupee enter the new range box between 64 to 68 and so it is unlikely that it will recover to 62.50 or that this is the last stage of the capitulation move.

But yet the new negative momentum in the indices is looking to close out this move in this week itself with a $100 Bln exit by FIIs on Friday necessitating a grave distance covered on Monday and now on Tuesday the same is likely. That means the indices could well compete with double digit yields targets on 10 year paper and the currency targets ( if any) to hit 5000 by Friday close and provide a respite week next week.

JP Associates and infracos have not started back and private exchanges and therefore promoters linked to that may not yet ever make positive lists again

I am like a kid, hoping the Banknifty cut today means the Reserve Bank has thrown the banks out to the wolves asking them to mark all holdings to market and push out a mandatory minimum to AFS portfolios. But then there are those that still think below 8 yields will be back

Buy Power NBFCs and Bajaj Auto has also finished its last moves. LIC Housing for one other NBFC can probably not move down after it hits 130 levels

Vidyasagar Setu, commonly known as the Second ...
Vidyasagar Setu, commonly known as the Second Hooghly Bridge or Second Howrah Bridge, is a bridge over the Hooghly River in West Bengal, India. It links the cities of Howrah and Kolkata. The bridge is a toll bridge. It is one of the longest bridges of multi Cable-stayed type in India and one of the longest in Asia. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

India Morning Report: There is the Rupee and then the equity markets…

Map of South Asia in native languages.
Map of South Asia in native languages. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


Frankly, there is nothing much to hold the markets after they broke 5500 and the markets below 5000 Nifty levels are likely though still not extremely likely as values identified in the Top 20 liquid counters will probably include those already having fallen to their lowest levels of this rally’s beginnings or within 10% of the same as ITC and Bharti Airtel indicate. That also means institutional buying that has resumed in bits and pieces will characterise this market thru the breakdown. Even though Bharat Iyer of JP Morgan also put on a brave face and assumed Fixed income to be just duly following the currency mechanics, structurally markets are ready to ignore the falling Rupee between 64 and 68 once it starts that leg. I personally do not think interest rates derived from FX have any significant accurate behaviour, esp where in India both markets are relatively illiquid and dependent on key PDs for volume business


Though nominal growth is unlikely to be the promised 15%, shift to it sector has created an exchange that is leading scrips to oblivion and not really any structural factors as they remain exactly where we always were. Infrastructure and Metal sectors are actually at their best take off points now both for Fixed income and equity QIPs the latter a little harsh for promoters, and secondary market floats in infracos could find considerable long term investor demand soaking it up.


Similarly, rating agencies’ almost junk BBB-/BA2 ratings on India are in fact already indicative of this breakdown and may not need a correction giving the rating agencies to correct their now identified goodwill gap in asia esp india and South Asia, that can thence merit a suitable upward notch everytime CAD is actually brought into control. Strange, but true.


Fixed income markets are set to lead the way meanwhile to double digit yields on the 10 year bond already hitting 8.95% in morning trades as Rupee takes up 62.3 levels before moving on to 63.30 ( TV18/CLSA) as the next Technical target. Banks presumaly are also paying for their investment portfolio breakdown in this move and do not have fresh cash to borrow and place in the 11% short term and even the 8-9% 10 – 30 year bonds for substitution of current loss making AFS and not taking everything to HTM.


One year down the line, with a stable government maybe instead of hiking deposit rates we will see the yields going south again. Oil is back above $110 levels and Indian buying will comfortably take out 67 levels for the Rupee




Bank Policy Tuesday: 90% expect a rate cut. Sorry, says RBI Governor. India wins.

Despite the political improbability of this being counted as a standoff by the understanding P Chidambaram, this will be the most advocated course by us as Indian Food inflation starts into gear and despite non Food inflation now being below 4% the banks’ predisposition to trust their models earning a good profit in such rate cut cycles and the lack of transmission of last rate cut to bank rates across the board means the RBI governor will have more wiggle room later if he leaves rates untouched.

That is some simple policy math weighed in by a outside in look at the markets busy in the ranged groove. Market economists are hemmed in by the lack of bullish global prospects despite a healthy prognosis for 2013 just two months ago. CAD remains dangerously teetering on the brink and can easily be held hostage by Oil and other imports. Gold imports  have not been capped off. Fisc parameters have not been resolved.

Indian markets have showed the same audacity for a bullish candle if only they  were allowed to bully the experts and the pragmatic Duvvoori Subbarao. Most experts thus have agreed to a rate cut tomorrow as more likely but have correspondingly cut down on the wiggle room for growth in even 2014 and definitely the rest of 2013. While Bank Policy could traditionally go for a rate cut now, the only room it will have in the future is to nod sagely and say ‘we told you so’. The 6.8% WPI is no measure of the 11% CPI and never the twain shall meet.

This is not the last stand for central bank led monetary policy however and if rates are indeed not cut now and market forces continue to engender the positive turnaround in IIP , the Q3 policy in December 2013 could look much more positive and we could be near a good take off point where consecutive cuts could then support growth. A 10 Y yield at 7.75% therefore is no bad news and the guv has all my good faith support if he lets the rate cut go unannounced tomorrow. 

India Morning Report: Bharti, IDFC and BHEL make it a heavy result oriented day

A PTV onboard a flight to Abu Dhabi.
A PTV onboard a flight to Abu Dhabi. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Though the market watchers are almost thirsty for a correction in the new series, habituated to aa trading range being established in a market that has more than INR 10 T in daily volumes on a good day and INR 4 tln in turnover including derivative volumes almost everyday. The Nifty Call interest has moved from 6000 to 6100 but is short interest and is safe enough as the markets do not look hungry for a move beyond 6100. However, the market is holding and we stick to our ‘call’ of 6000 being an almost distant minimum for the series as big ticket Results from Bharti, IDFC and BHEL follow ICICI Bank, Satyam and Bharti Infratel’s good showings yesterday.

Profit taking has almost ticked up to normal levels with the markets taking the profit taking in its stride in Private Banks and other blue chips including ITC and Glenmark Pharm. IDFC could start a new move today and Ambani cos. follow after their result surge backed down by Monday. ICICI Bank could also start back after the immediate discounting of its par results as its above par situation catches on and markets decide that corrected levels are unlikely to cede new ground. India VIX remains subdued making it more possible each passing trading day that a new high will be made this year.

Jet is likely to sign the dotted line with Etihad this week and UAE’s #3 carrier look to fast recouping of market shares from leaders post consolidation with Jet in terms of synergistic operations

The surging CPI data to 14% and the slowdown in Consumer staples including QSR and snack foods highlighted in ET forget to note that India consumers have easily digested the over 2000 pizza and other QSR restaurants and the growing market sustained by Tier 2 towns despite KFC and Pizza hut;’s earlier failures to expand the category in India. Also optimistic projections in Real Estate industry highlighting the record number of new launches though pointing to over capacity int he future point to a good 2013 with a record 500k new homes being handed over to retail customers this year.

The Rupee is also likely to capitalise on Dollar’s misfortunes without hurting Exporters as Euro and Yen coast to new records after an unprecedented contraction in GDP was reported in the US bringing the year’s growth down to 2%

India Morning Report: Ahh, I hope you got the rally..

Here it is, the Fiscal Cliff. Markets are soon going to realise the celebration of Obama and the general panic in the US markets are both in equal measures a global celebration and a classic over reaction that ticks off momentum in the other direction.

If India denizens do realise the limited impact of the issues including the fiscal cliff’s promised red splotched shores of recession then they can follow the DII traders into buying into the India markets even before the day is over but the correction is mandatory. ITC is up smartly, so is ICICI Bank and there are the Mid Cap acts to follow the trend down which will present unique buying opportunities including Hexaware.

Biocon Logo
Biocon Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Biocon should be back in the mix except for the ill informed market sentiments in the areas of “focus on outsourcing” and “outsourcing is over” that seem to bring the edge back to the markets every other rally as unfortunately they remain unimportant issues esp to the business models of Indian companies succeeding in the US market and capable of building a domestic market franchise in their labs/sales departments

The markets should have probably continued up yesterday in New York and therefore here in Mumbai and we should still hope for a 6000 mark before the year is over if the muted correction is followed by a good rally next week. Mannapuram and Muthoot have failed to pick up from October levels while NBFCs like M&M Fin and Bajaj Fin did follow up on the good results and continued Tier 2 market development due to LIC Housing and Shriram Transport while Jet is back at invested and yet interested in investing category, Accumulation having begun earlier at below 340 and traders hoping to make a surprise kill into a 5900 rally

Silver and Gold will probably weaken as Dollar surges back and the Rupee almost crossed over below 54yesterday but is hurt in early morning trade today towards its current LOWS of 54.6


Market Street
Market Street (Photo credit: glennharper)




India Morning Report: Markets dodge the overvaluation scare with timed tears in the market fabric


It could still be a time to buy..

Ofcourse anysuch big move like the inflow of INR49.50 B in September would cause the 6000 target to be completed in December on the Nifty. The time to buy stems from recent well timed correctionss bringing up time to fill the tears in India’s struggling and listed consumption story.

The tear in the consumption fabric has filled up

While markets are tentatively suggesting a bad Q2 which just means it would not be a surprise when it does land, the mid cap Consumer plays have filled the gap for seasoned traders with Dabur still on play today at 135 levels. One feels similarily Lupin, Cipla and ITC and Bharti Airtel could be buys and no one attempting shorts on those plays will land anything tenable this week or next even if the markets stay in consolidation not uptick.

Real consumption is going to bring the real scare..

It is also similarily obvious that despite the protestations, Q2 results will actually revive profit growth and thus the real scare is that the slowdown has continued from September into Q3 and thus the jump in September results will be actually followed by a dumping result of the real bottom in December while India’s services PMI supports the current India outperformance fable perfectly with a 54 mark from 52 in August keeping india in the lead with 5% + growth globally. 

Time though for the banks to not rise too fast in the meantime and HDFC Bank is right now correcting sharply to keep the indices from floating up beyond reason for pressure on DIIs and other traing FIIs to enter the market at this stage and book 200 points on the NSE indices having already spent two-three months waiting

THERE ARE NO SHORTS on HDFC or HDFCBANK implied in his report


India Morning Report: A bright festive pre close rally to 5450


Of course that is about all the market could take as it prepares to correct today after another long run on the positive side. It is unlikely however that the correctiobn be anything more than a shallow dip and those waiting for a flash restart of a steep rally will likely have to plan it a bit further don the line at this point. It is more about safeguarding capital flows already in the market than about more news flow driven markets responding to policy inaction or any inaction with a fall.

The IIP disappointment will also likely survie a big dip as the market took pains to ride out the news without any adverse moves. The strength in transaction volumes contineus but 5450 may invite some profit booking in due course when the move snowballs to the south.

OF course a downgrade would set the ball rolling and that is one effect of policy inaction we cannot avoid. Politically they should also get to defend why India is anyway treated near the BBB levels by the rating agencies despite its more traditional and even public spending dominant structure for its banks .


Morning Trading Strategies – India September 10-14, 2012 (Day 2 – Tuesday)


State Bank of India Logo
State Bank of India Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


No do not do that. though smaller targets that Ashwini Gujral has suggested work, you never know which short won’t work and thats a good investment on the long you are switching. Of course I refer to the markets enticing show of what’s left in India anyway and exiting by the back door for the show is over kind of morning with dear networks taking turns on shorts for day traders. Yes Bank could very well come back to 320 and IDFC has already shown enough to stick to 122 levels than go back to 114 both indicating that the supposed over emphasis on both banking and infrastructure financing is unlikely to go away and REC and PFC are already at encouraging levels for an uother upmove.


We do not expect markets to go for the South side vacation day traders are so fervently hoping for.


We do not expect markets to go for the South side vacation day traders are so fervently hoping for.


ITC is a buy again at 253-257,  More IDFC can be accumulated at cirrent prices, ICICI Bank is a good buy but the stock ill run below 900 on some quick performance concerns regarding expectations on NPA portfolios, and restructurings as well as business segment portfolios the firm operates without any regard for the consistent high NIMs  and quality credit pull to the franchise.  SBI stock similarly awaits a big bang news before a new positive target thus making a good upmove unlikely while big news is unlikely in this quarter or next, banks having stabilised a volatile operating scenario




Bank Policy Tuesday: Nothing can be done for now, Markets react


As we mentioned, the markets had decided for the bank last week itself and while it was clear the rate cut was not recommended the market is in position to react unfavorably letting commentary focus on  “hawkishness” of the policy (just listen  to LV on TV18 carrying on live from the dog and pony show) which is unlikely its tone.

Banknifty is down 100, supports for the Rupee sunk in the melee and Nifty don 20 points. SLR has been cut 1% finally after 3 years of dilly dallying. that means with 23% SLR and 4% CRR banks now need only 27.8% in Liquid government deposits and with borrowing from the government already reducing the liquidity will improve albeit slowly as these are sticky deposits. India’s GDP  growth is likely to come below 6.5% and inflation is high according to the policy review.

I am wondering if my short Dollar position will stay in the green in these conditions against the Rupee with markets using every such excuse for running it down and are virtually uncontested in that. The RBI reference rate to the Dollar will move up today. Inflation target is now 7% and credit growth targets are above 18% wiht most of the big four affirming a 20% year


Morning Trading Strategies – India July 30, 2012


ICICI BANK And IDFC start trending down when the exodus becomes clear in the coming weeks esp after the GDP data.  TILL THEN ICICI BANK may actually reach never before highs with ITC ITC results up 20% were an eye opener after they showed up plateauing on consumer brand sales in Q4 data Consumer brands do show continuing losses (minor) but traction shows capability to tap the 10X higher unorganised market in Atta, Oil and readymade foods.

Regardless of HDFC’s 20% higher profits the Consolidated income of INR12.75B, the markets remain topped off and likely candidates while the rupee wants to correct to the Dollar to 54 levels before trying a jump, leaving markets pushing for an upside.

However, my earnings capacity and the trade in the Rupee Dollar have been hit adversely as I get targeted in the ring to sort out their confusion on the irection of how to get out of a dollar positive trade because of the weak markets.

Marti’s scores in Q2 were bad but more than results actions in Manesar and its swift rebirth in Gujarata this time are going to have positive ticks on the price sooner than later. BIOCON and healthcare upside has definitely been ;lost excep t for one shadow snook with the telco stocks. The IT jump is illusory but if you hold them, it is good for you

Someone did say PSU bank shorts, but if you try CBI or even UBI they may be climbing back today.

Snatch and Jerk (Intraday) therefore offers few available opportunities left on the shelf. 

No need to add positions now when you can get them cheap later BOB and PNB should infact come back into the green and rise sooner than later. Indusind is not a good pick. Yes Bank holds.


Happy Thursdays! Billions decimated in last second discovery of skunks


In a thoroughly disgraceful show by the markets, the markets took apart the indices near their bottom on a selected PSU bank throw down strategy after having clearly identified all the winners having established a bull market and trying to be instead suddenly seen saying but I don’t understand this index, the index being banknifty of course and the markets seemed to comply because every such short seller no one thought his buying was needed on this day of expiry.

For me, I am disgusted with the show of skunkworks and really do not think these market players are the ones who are going to get others to feel confident about the Indian markets or story which is exactly what it is and the markets right now seem to be increasingly becoming a naxal zone..and really if that someone thinks is representaative of a society I am aghast.


Fixed Income Report: India back as flavor of the year

Global sentiment has again turned in favor of India as a leader of the trend of survival led growth, thaat is bleeding the best of developed world markets dry with expectations of QE fuelled growth that are increasinglytemporary growth humps on the chart and trending down like a dampening whale’s breath on each injection of liquiidity.

हिन्दी: ताजमहल English: Taj Mahal, Agra, India...
हिन्दी: ताजमहल English: Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Deutsch: Taj Mahal im indischen Agra. Español: Vista del Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Français : Le Taj Mahal, à Âgrâ, en Inde. Русский: Мавзолей Тадж-Махал, Агра, Индия. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Put in simpler terms the yields from $100 in first round of QE is probably as much from $230 in the second round and now that most have more than $1000 invested and are getting half the strength expected to continues in housing and treasury markets, the Indian yields are good to be shopped leading a trend down, though RBI was also mopping extra liquidity out from the markets in today’s run

Indian spices
Indian spices (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bank Policy Tuesday: RBI Governor announces policy in an hour

Policy today is likely to disappoint market pressures on the central bank in just an hour while the mood could have been upbeat otherwise, it is now driven by policy expectations and a sharp ‘inhuman ‘ touch on unchanged policy pronouncements can catch market business operators bys urprise.

Policy is likely unchanged even for CRR and even though Sajid Chinoy and Tushar Poddar from GS have been very clearin the coming forecast, the lack of forebearance and the incapabilities of global brands to withstand pressures and lack of trust in institutions at this time added with an avoidance of private bank economists like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, markets would negatively dip as FII interest in Indian markets is lower by 13% in 2012 till date over 2010 data and though the buying is on, 5050 is too high a level for serious buyers at this time

Policy likely without changes in interest rates, CRR and Liquidity regime though overextended (thru SLR collateral in MSF, blah..blah)

English: ICICI Bank - Leeds Branch - Roundhay Road
Image via Wikipedia

Midcap Select: Opto Circuit ( At home with your heart )

Heart during ventricular diastole.
Image via Wikipedia

The electronic patch device produces the report mailed to the hospital from home after 72 hours. market surveys used by Opto circuit use a $500 mln market size as basis.  This mysense heart device was approved last week.

Wayward/Baseless revenue estimates based on optimistic foretelling by the industry as is the wont in the last 10 years of India’s new product introduction in the west apart the company could definitely do with $ 20 mln in extra Dollar revenue with the currency run expected to continue.

Opto does not have any liabilities in Dollars and may convert this dollar revenue to good profits. Its other product business revenue streams were locked last year in Japan

The company is not getting good yields in some invasive device businesses where it needs more investor partners,and wants to list in the next six months with existing PE partners where it can As told to ETNow (inthe brief) the company wants to roll out further devicess for FDA approval in the next  2 years

Predilections: Is it the individual than the Company?

Potrait of Dhirubhai Ambani
Image via Wikipedia

ADA group s a whole with its umbrella of companies move together as one company, while Reliance, having burnt its hands in oil flares tries to become a diversified conglomerate to represent India of the future . Both Groups ADA Reliance and Reliance continue to be expected to roll the markets and no individual earnings performances and valuations may matter to strategy and Capital raising teams at both companies.

They continue to look for the personal licence to muddy over their Sports, Financial Services investment for the Hydrocarbon major and the incessant hunger for Capital for Infra projects under Power and Telecom retail for the other group. Reliance Capital itself remains pressured as a subsidiary to such ambitions before new bank licences try to enforce an independence on the same .

A little more Capitalist as anyone would want a promoter to be but still, serious analysis would probably show up the deficiency of this mass correlation for internal investors and outside in hangers on to theIndia story who look to the return of Relaince as the proxy investment for India

Sunil Godhwani, Chairman and Managing Director...
Image by zeeble via Flickr
  • Predilections: PSUs represent the mass of the resource economy (
  • Predilections: If you still mind shorting the market.. (
  • Predilections – Our Faulty towers series ( Factoring the Indian Markets by beast ) (
  • Predilections: How about senseless shorting? (
  • Indian stocks slump 1.7%, led by Reliance shares (

India Earnings Season: Kotak gets into the field of vision at the same levels

Same turnover, the glitch in NPas was minor and they are back to 0.7%, Sales are tired holding NII and fee based income up 15% y-o-y , definitely the bank mapped by the bears on India as representative and definitely not a good future for growth in either Credit or deposits. Insurance, brokerage and allied businesses continue to score in hinterlands of ethics and brand remains Uday, upfront and sincere..a window to India’s wealthy’s expectations in a scam riddled nation. Anyway I do not know if they are ever going to even attempt strategising very sure they are right about everything and traditional markets of wealth being their only succour even though the Gujjus keep spurning them. Is a Swiss bank tax haven actually our basis for the bank of the future if it is not over dependent on technology?

New bank licences will probably end up as modified NBFCs and I do not say glorified as Kotak’s example shows, everyone wants only Cosmo branches and traditional markets and then insight pebnetrates only 5% of the market. Sahara anyone?

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