India Morning Report: Portfolio investment highs let India story dominate

Investment percent gdp
Investment percent gdp (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As investment flows confirm net positive investments in India on a regular daily basis, making the total for March closer to $3 Bln or close to $150 mln per day (INR 900 Crores) , India and Indonesia keep hopes alive for Global equities and EEM flows remain negative with exits from China, Japan and Korea closing out on any hope for recovery in North Asia with China remaining dull and Japans deficit imports coming at the cost of lower Exports being kept on deficit mirroring the phase of growth investments without concurrent investing flows.

 

6590 levels obviously proved daunting for India Inc and markets returned the gains out of the morning trades after a buoyant day for equities all around, looking for new levels not belying the sad events of 2012 for Corporate India Markets stay away from Banks as markets had a big open on Monday and new levels in private sector banks seem to wait for PSU banks that continue to be neglected for their larger than life NPA sores and aches.

 

Reasons for cheering the performance of Auto and metals however still seem t o be further ahea d on the road to recovery and have hardly earned their stripes. Bank License hopefuls that still include the Aditya Birla Group and a couple of other corporate houses are probably caught unaware by the extra scrutiny imposed by the Poll panel ahead of a new government in steed at the Center. RBI has enough reason to deny corporate houses a chance to play with the banking system but it may be difficult to deny claims of available NBFC models like Aditya Birla Money ( Diversified Financial Services ) AND M&M Financial Services ( Retail unsecured/Auto Lending ) after satisfying the NOHFC structure requirements, giving the CEntral Bank a tytough decision as it probably wants to hand over no more than 4-5 new opportunities

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India Morning report: This week in history of 2050: The sun rises on the east India Company in Asia

With half-hearted restrictions on Dollar flows talking of Capital controls and engendering a Rupee ‘addition’ to the value of the Dollar and European Banks getting free after a couple of years in Capital wilderness, India could be a bigger part of Asia when Banks get into a new bout of short term credit , not just Transaction based Banking which s already operating with preference to SCB, DB and Emperor HSBC in the area. The new east India company, third edition would thus be the rupee benefactor with true self interest reserved in trading than the hitherto close coordination with businesses and governments on policies in the countries in the region. We have in Asia however successfully staved off such pressure since 1987 esp outside the East and North Asia belt where foreign interest makes up a dominating market share of the Financial Markets in debt and equity

The Rupee runs close to half its weekly move at 66 on Tuesday afternoon itself leaving very little to the imagination as conservative and HTM Indian risk offices as they price in the Dollar at between 70 and 75 for current short term rate planning, which hastens he move to 78-80 soon. The nifty pre expiry range has broken own in the same hindsight and with 5500 inaccessible, technically markets run another steep wall o try and find stable levels especially with long futures holdings from offshore desks dominating in the morning . The 5325 index may well stop south of 5000 as the longs were never to be rolled over in any case and the cash buying will unlikely be sufficient in volume to increase index level prospects in the September series.

East India Company (video game)
East India Company (video game) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Banks suffered for the active monitoring feared by Expoters and importers trying to go the extra length made available by the steep wall in Dollar Rupee trade ad all of Asia is a little straaped for Dollars as investors respond to fund exits and rebalancing of the last full QE portfolios. The East India co though like all Capitalist colonising ventures do not invest in local quality anymore, which the Bombay club has long neglected but in true 2013 models, there is no growth yet to justify keeping the depression ship with increasing investments and growth in Exports still easily outpaced by the cost of imports leaving more rupee for each Dollar till it does. Government Spending has improved and i would aver short term interest rates are helping in ensuring immediate focus on the Capex cycle as well but investments will come only when higher realisations are available and so inflation may even need to be roomier as in a new frankness in pricing Gas and diesel, that has enabled that consumption cycle without any political fallout. the Cereals and Milk have gone thru the supply bottle neck based realisation improvement and vegetables price hike may also be done in 2-3 months

 

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