India Morning Report: I wonder if this freewheeling, Really is an enlightening thing (Dubious , Vikram Seth, NDTV 2013-12-14)

English: syndicates @ work
English: syndicates @ work (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Homage to Sec 377 controversies apart, it also expresses the universal angst and one shot propositions(Sec 377) that refuse to delineate the difference between the Buys and the Sells and the Holds and the currency and the coin) SELL THAT MIDCAP now (and come back another day)

The markets tried again in the Pre Open today and will sooner than later again snare buyers on a higher price near 6200 but till that happens, Bulls having just defended 6000 levels in the Option premium market, not underwriting 6100 or even 6200 that they had started last Monday on, it leaves an uncertain gap in between.

Market buying will of course definitely ride a 6.5% WPI data in November riding the gain from Core industries lasting around 2% for almost the entire year now, and Primary Articles skewing the deal with a 15% tick, also underwriting that retail inflation is not wont to come down at all in the coming two years of a changed fiscal and political regime either. In India, we follow the natural order of things, yes and in the long run we are all dead , definitely, but increasing rates because Onions can finally be sold for  a better price, it is more autistic than you think and once we are part of a Global Bond index, such follies will get a force multiplier we do not worry about / or disavow when we make that policy.

GSK deal again caught buyers on both sides even as a 30% arbitrage was available on the GSK Pharma stock which closed on Friday at 2400 levels as GSK Consumer tumbles from speculators exiting at 4500 levels. Both scrips are closer to the offer at 2950 and 3500 respectively in the pre 9.30 trades on Monday. Any open offer in GSK Consumer will unlikely exceed 3400 and may even be lesser after the INR 64 Bln is spent on GSK Pharma. Apparently the Midcap deal buying Elder off Torrent leaves Elder with the low margin API business and Torrent stock is unhappy about the value bought over while Elder stock is not so happy about he cash coming in/debt closing out.

Anyway, before we proceed, the other starting up sub text today was Sell the Midcap. A sure fire winner of a strategy given the markets vacillation, as those who are Hungry are bound to die till they are served with Capital inputs and Market responses that allow a rally

Wednesday’s rate hike will probably peak out the ill advised strategy ad retail inflation will continue to iron out the poor gap even if the government can’t spend and hopefully no party feels like lifting the Gold curbs too soon. Europe’s death spiral should wean out some hot money before he Euro peak s out but the Dollar will continue south and thus the taper threat will pass off unnoticed by the non market watchers in the middle of the week. Did you notice the flurry of big bank settlements that have passed us by in November?

India will act decisively to set the global context in 2014 reflecting the markets outperforming in 2014 while US markets follow tamely yet maintain last year highs. The Europe sell off about to begin soon, will leave us unaffected giving the world another chance to dig theimselves in, but ignored india will manage with another $20 Bln – $40 Bln in portfolio adds in 2014 as US Bond yields rise to meet the challenges of a real world.

Also Ashwini is a the cusp of a rash with all his misplaced bear picks again, and you should buy into the banks now. I go with SS(CNBC18) decision on the trading rink, markets waiting at 6175 at 9:35 for the confirmation that 6150 bottom holds and markets will move up thence. All that shucking, it is finally closed so the good guys we all noticed are set to move up ( and no IT moves are expected from here),. ALso, th last headline PSU Bank investors are not coming back, holds.

HDFC Bank ticked in the early bull report on Advance Tx, but then HDFC Bank was always expected to headline bigger growth numbers than the rest and it may well be the contraindication leading India Inc to slower revenues for the third running quarter

Any others eager to read the Drama Queen by Suchitra Krishnamoorthi, it’s a good idea this broadbasing of Indians’ views on their own history

Achha, what’s the deal – Jaspal Bindra wants clarifications on Subsidiarisation? HSBC, StanC < Citi and that other, will they ever come back in India and China retail or is it just Transaction Banking now

India Morning Report (June 26, 2012) – Angry Investors to come back?

Irrespective of a slow moving day, bond yields have moved up to 8.1% because of thin trading / under supply of the new 10 year benchmark. RBI will be holding a Inr 150 B auction on 29th to introduce a new 5 year bond (40 B) which will ease trading in Indian FI markets. The supply of the 10 year benchmark is less than INR 10 B apparently. The benchmark released in November traded upto a stock of INR 900 B before the new benchmark was released.

India has added $5B to the Gilts limit with a lower residual maturity apart from $25 B for Infrabonds, permissions for QFIs to invest in Indian Mfs and another $10B in ECB limits which are unlikely to be taken up as only high quality companies can operate under the limits on cost spreads on such debt

India Bond Impact (Fixed Income Report) : Not RBI, but bonds try to get a depression prognosis

Fixed Income yields keep falling off a cliff while liquidity is managed with the year long rally in yields chopped

BOMBAY MINT Post Card
Image by BOMBMAN via Flickr

below 9% even as emergency liquidity’s few dollars keep bonds from staying east of the channel corridor mandated by RBI with the marginal lending facility  currently at 9% for banks.

The drop in yields could not however encourage RBI to force rate cuts sooner as these yields remain in a thinly traded market and neither borrowing costs nor lending rates for retail or wholesale tranches are nearly being effected apart from Treaasury gains ahead of March 31

RBI has been allowing the use of excess SLR for the MLF (MSF) emergency window since the last 3-4 weeks leading to the unwitting capital appreciation in bonds since November.

Happy Thursdays! Announcing a sunset for Food inflation

US-Inflation-by-year
Image via Wikipedia

The weekly numbers for the December 3 week continued on a much higher plane even as governments and markets battled with the 9+ figure for November with Fuel group capped at a 0.3 MOM increase to a 15.23% rate, Food  rate down to 4.35% from a 6.6% in Nov 26 figures, and Primary articles looking distinctly sunny at 5.48% instead of more than 7% last week. Thus mfg inflation / basic inputs contributing to that would have also stayed below 4% and the series distinctly showing signs of beating 8% for December except the Fuels number as prices catch up with our dear dollar basket

Commodities globally have finally entered a decent correction phase as Gold was beaten to the haven by the Dollar, running behind investment allocations as its lower value starts bringing down global portfolio sizes and increasing allocations to equities in just maintaining share of allocation..In case you did not get that, please write..

Discussions of Advance Tax data show the uptick from last quarter’s performance as there is no hope for the frozen December, neither for Autos, nor for those with Dollar loans and the other domestic metals manufacturers and mining providers, leaving the real estate cement and banking downturn not so difficult to fathom

Inflation rate of Japan Economy 1980-2007
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Banks: Indian CDS trading at ‘default’

English: Kundapur Vaman Kamath (born December ...
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ICICI Bank CDS suffered the most in the first few hours of India having approved CDS trading . Though only one insurer wrte CDS on ICICI Bank at a high but manageable 180 basis points a couple of weeks ago, the first few trades have pushed bank CDS’ to a high 471 points for ICICI Bank across the default watermark of 450 basis points. Even SBI trades at finite default probabilities of 361 basis points above that of  France in November trading when it rose from a spread of 200 bp to more than 350 bp.

That means cost of insuring $10 mln of ICICI debt is a $471,000. However in India’s case a CDS rate of below 200 bps would never be possible given its low ratings at BBB- for the sovereign and most of its banks can trade higher than the sovereign benchmark easily. even the soevreign should trade at nearer A rating levels in times of normal liquidity inthe Financial markets

India Auto report (Sales – November 2011)

English: DTC Buses in Delhi, India
Image via Wikipedia

Maruti’s numbers have trickled in at 36,000 vehicles more than October. The 92k in sales were yet 18-5% down from the festive season report of last year.  The mood is sombre as markets find solace in car makers coming back with good numbers but it is obvious that  that’s not enough for India to power forward.

Hyundai’s India sales grew nearly 30% with over 22,000 exports and 35,000 units sold domestically. Domestic sales are up 10% At Maruti the sixth yearly sales decrease in November also showed change in preferences as diesel grew 22% and petrol(gasoline) models demand dropped 14%(WSJ)

Ford and GM seem to be stuck near the 10000 and 8500  cars a month number but this is Ford’s first year with 100k sales in the nation. BMW, Mercedes and Audi have been selling nearly 200 units a month getting deeper into India’s moneyed hinterland and export towns. VW Jetta and Passat also sold 499 units in the festive month

Hyundai’s Eon and older steed i10 both sell nearly the same as Ford and GM in a month with 7,500 units each. Its A3 sedans also sold 8,223 units (Verna and Accent)

Tata Motors did grow Nano sales 10 times over dismal 2010 figures to 6500 for November. It sold only 1000 Fiat units in total sales of nearly 29k domestically

M&M sales of 44,000 units included 17,500 units in passenger vehicles (and SUVs) Its new XUV500 is expected to brighten its chances further with its ventures in Korea stabilising and helping it leverage technology and lever its home grown stability in the global market and in india rebranding it from a home again Tata , desi variety spaghetti

Toyota has grown into a tough spot staying comfortably ahead of Ford and GM with sales of 14k cars for the month, trebling from last year November on launch of Etios and Liva during the period

Newcomers VW and Nissan grew astronomically too on a low base to 6,750 and 2,680 units respectively with new models and support for diesel giving them a distinct advantage in the Indian brands of Ford GM, Suzuki and Korean Hyundai. honda has reduced production for the month drastically as Thai floods disrupt parts production for its global auto plants

October sales in 4 wheelers were a paltry 138k units and 185 k including Utility vehicles. November seemingly has gone to 220k units with good growth at Toyota, VW and M&M

Two wheelers had a brilliant month and India reverted to reporting car and 2 wheeler sales together since October. Bajaj grew nearly 30% at 394,000 units for the month and Hero Moto corp had a more than 5% sequential growth at a high 537k units Its erstwhile partner, that still sells its trusted line of motor scooters, jumped to 200k units in sales in November into the 3rd spot

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Happy Thursdays! November buzzes everyone

English: A 2008 Maruti Suzuki Swift Dzire VXi.
Image via Wikipedia

November buzzes everyone, December is too cold

Sun comes out in the East, but the East is all sold!

All the talk of potential markets in retail and consumption, engendering domestic demand ( in China) and even the imminent collapse of Europe ( not just not happening, in danger of engendering imprudent fiscal expenditure by imprudent politicians, just back from the brink) everything’s come to a nought

US is also going to a nought score but after a $52 bln weekend in Non auto sales and another $36 bln in Auto sales for the month of November, it is rather to get on to a nought in all 2011 inventories by January 2012

India is headed to another ground zero right now, even as China starts betting on expansion without getting a jump in domestic demand. One wonders if stock market investors are correct in deriding Divestment thru buybacks and cross holdings mooted by the government arms, One further wonders if india’s aviation industry will ever get to use bankruptcy protection as a strategy as KFA finds another hole to plug, and one wonders if the yields falling to 8.75% being the end of the move in Fixed Income, if the rupee will ever come back to below 50 on the bat

India’s fiscal problems have batted on a high inflation wicket, with 9.39% in CPI in October and a 8% food inflation for the third week running for November 19, Pranab advertising a fall in the price of Onions by 40% and October Export growth and deficit stunted and expanded by OIL and rupee gyrations Non Food inflation is dead in the water ( includes fibers and oil seeds) at 2.5% but Fuel is still 15.5% and Primary Articles a 7.74% lower but by no means a low number

There are a lot of other statistics including M&M’s jump in November sale sto nearly 41k vehicles incl almost 18k passenger vehicles and Maruti’s falling behind the 100k in Sales despite there being no strike at its Haryana plants and they will all come in due course.

At Happy Thursdays suffice it to say that November was good to pass on for the results showing for any government or corporate but there have been good signs for growth, with Europe solved along expected lines, banks at an all time low globally and the Nifty 4950 a good time to go short on everything, always a better feeling once you decline to wait 10 years for the pay cheque.

China’s landing will not be hard at all, watch for the detailed analysis on advantages.us, Airlines will not fade away   with US American Air taking a 18 month vacation to recuperate with new pricing and new supplier and cost agreements a good example of the new strategies discovered in this new millennium, the other – central bank pay cheques for every citizen.

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