India Morning Report: Auto exports pick up at Bajaj, PFC, L&T and IDFC lead plays

The headline tries to get at the difference in the consolidating market of now vs. that of three years ago in a similar situation i.e. within this cycle as the prospects of infracos having taken a nosedive and that of auto sales having hit a rock or two still have not dented or revived the case for an explosion of demand and the few selected beneficiaries in each sector. As always the moves are helped by Banking, in this case new bank licences even as Bharti, ITC and YES retain investor interest but have lost their lead as momentum creators in the market. Jet Airways was repurposed by Tony Fernandes’ claims countering Jet’s path to growth in the last 10 years taking unused Tier 2 cities and airports as model bases for its expansion starting at 3 aircraft and proposing to add 10 aircraft a year. Vodafone’s unilateral attempts on the other hand remain wierd and misrepresented to say the least s they make no sense of price or commodity in question probably trying to get a buy one take one free from the judicial process with the tax case still not settled on the m&a either.

at Airasia fair
at Airasia fair (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In Energy, brokerages try to play catch up and set a mini trend but with 10-12 more hikes in diesel any fundamental rerating except the positive drfit up ensconced currently is unlikely. UBS upgraded BPCL and Citi downgraded ONGC to neutral. In Auto xports, Maruti continus to scare with losing the plot over old established exports continuing 2 years after the shift t diesel and D’sire models in the Gurgaon and Manesar plants but the MNCs and two wheeler/three wheeler companies ride growing marking of production to exports

But back to index based investors and statistics, now would be the time to reassess the significance of India in Asia and global indices though company based weights have been switched around earlier in April. Volatility should subside and give rise to a positive volatility based move sooner than later after core growth was par for May at 2.3% and Energy prices were realigned without protest. Global Oil and gold prices continue to trace lows and new banks from muthoot finance or others however be unable to get out of the success of their nbfc counterparts while establishing retail having to take existing operations to the bank.

That should also mean more new licences as each of the 26 is also a regional in one way or the other apart from leading from one business segment.And, importantly there is still chance for finance m&a albeit after grant of licences, while Sundaram finance /Shriram finance continue to try and refashion their book to get RBI’s nod currently not available for the deleterious mix o securities from refi considerations. India may ass this lull for ECB finance sooner than later as it materialises that the rupee level is unlikely to improve and thence investors, already back for the ride may get to cook more for the gravy train than 2012 offered.

Also, a note to sovereign asian investrs, this could be the last chance to get into the India story at these levels, and more attractive with a weak rupee as these funds hld more of foreign currency than local currency losers in fixed income and currency

India Morning Report: July series catches with investors, Investors coming back?

Large moves in ONGC and Coal india restarted the bull fuelling of the markets, traders assiduously avoiding the to be rally heroes and leaving value on the table in YES Bank, IDFC and other banking applicants while taking the recently hammered value picks in the indices back with defined pairs available to sophisticated and wealth investors and shorts avoiding the markets.

It allowed frustrated “no go” traders like Angel broking who tried a short pick on IDFC yesterday to leave unnoticed while long cash equity futures seem to be a prelude to another rally in the bank nifty. Of course 5800 could still be a level to short the index for the pronouncements of today for coal India and gas prices could still not translate into concrete action in the election year but that looks increasingly remote.

The turnaround is here in process but there is unlikely to be immediate jump in economic data except that future months could see better traction from investors with sticky inflows from the last take on the markets seen in the June expiry above 5700 around 2:30 pm

Gas prices are set to rise in 2014 to market linked levels starting at around $8.4 mmbtu according to the new policy. Bajaj auto has recovered smarty in 2 sharp moves of 2.5% and is still agood nvestment and trade at 1880.  iCICI Bank similarily has a good value at 1050 levels




India Morning Report: Sharp cuts ensure quick bottom in India around 5650

Bombay High, South Field. Undersea pipelines c...
Bombay High, South Field. Undersea pipelines carry oil and gas to Uran, near Mumbai, some 120 NM away. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

A more than expected negative reaction in  the Indian markets yesterday may have subdued analysts into a negative whirl as they were waiting for the same, but post the subdued slightly positive open in global markets, it increasingly looks like today’s move in the Indian markets is more a positive search for value than just a reaction to yesterday’s sharp negative move.

Though your favorite superanalysts may be recommending shorts at 5650-5700 levels on the markets , I would invite you to use this rare opportunity to further sign in to Indian markets in scrips of value except that though banks refer the most value potential they are not ready for a move up yet. ONGC and Tata Motors are good shorts too, and apart from the index shorts one can see the visible analyst reaction actually picking out rare weaknesses for shorts as Ashwini Gujral recommended in Option spreads shorting Tata Motors and ONGC . Telcos haev nearly recovered the positive sentiment almost immediately and exporters are mobing in the positive zone including Bajaj Auto and Sun Pharma

The heavily discounted PER multiples in the Indian indices also ensure further ETF outflows do not negatively impact Indian allocations and one expects debt market outflows to stabilise soon as well as the yields in the Fixed Income Market spiked n small volumes itself yesterday and there are only higher opportunity losses for further exits The Rupee can obviously not last at these levels having failed to establish any zones in the three breaches in last two weeks but as the “correlation backward catch up play has lasted almost all week, the rest of the markets are unlikely to oblige Rupee’s bottom making move in the next few weeks and is likely to be ignored in equity and debt///government bond markets

Shorts on UCO, Karnataka Bank  and Vijaya Bank will work singly and can be tried as pair with buy in Banknifty once BOB and SBI bottom out as the big movers in this move. A Direct air with pvt sector ICICI bank and HDFC Bank would be riskier. Nifty short strangles with the Nifty bottom at 5600 is recommended y IiFL which would be their first positive trade in the quarter (joking!) but a great one Short 1 put at 5600 and use to buy puts/sell calls at 5800 . Selling 5500 put would not be bullish for this market nor very remunerative.


India Closing Report (Week Of 12-16 November, 2012) (With Trading Strategies For The Week To Come)

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation


The Diwali holiday shortened week proved the dictum that if you flog the same levels for the market long enough the markets need not kneel out of fidgety bear’s interest or tired bulls leaving. However, the markets nearly rerated themselves and shorts ar eopen in the market esp as revised Telecom company targets including winner Bharti may be too much too soon for operation al challenges and negative margins in most markets on wafer thin Operating profits. One does not except writeback profits either except for those like idea who won back the same 9 circles from the previous auction without another penny in cash due to the government from them


Banking as expected will start Monday with strict guidelines on what is private and profit making and what is not, BOB and SBI showing they are in no position to compete in the sector even with size and rural reach or international access on their side.(BOB in Africa)


The market punters are still markedly divided along the same lines in consumption stocks with those that favor Axis and Jubilant and those who switch ITC, JET, YES and a few others, keeping them all in the not so Mid Cap but not blue chip ranks. The continuing fall in Cairn and GAIL makes that sector as close to Value pick range as it is allowed to get but neither ONGC nor GAIL or CAIRN look like they will be first picks in the coming week the foreign brokerages and morgan stanley having marked a flat range on the market which has obviously found 5620 to be more than fairly undervalued but is still a bit stuck in the mud even before 5800 is ht on the tripwires ( a tripwire is the simplest form of a shock trigger setting a limit beyond which the alerts start ringing)


Biocon has made another deal with Bristol Myers for anti diabetic medication while the diabetic market globally is expected to grow to nearly $60 B a year with even Novo Nordisk insulin yet just 25% of the market. Automobiles however do seem to be near the bottom of their range and could start ff the week’s investing bits till infra traders make a mind to take a plunge again IDFC in the lead and private banks like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank following in.


The unexpected rise of Coffee stocks mid week really has set a cat among the pigeons as a 20% rise in those three cannot be easily replaced by any other competing equity or currency investment one thinks. and Tata Global remains a wonderful investment at 175 as Starbucks get s a little faster on the blocks with store openings in 4-6 weeks.




Late Late Morning Trading Strategies – India July 11, 2012 (Results season preview)

Image representing Infosys Technologies as dep...
Image via CrunchBase

Infy strikes first on Thursday morning followed by TCS results after hours and then the limelight quickly shifts to banking as HDFCBANK reports on Friday itself, MindTree having skipped signal bars to run the results on Sunday and one feels HDFCBANK might run things late too as

Bombay High, South Field. Undersea pipelines c...
Bombay High, South Field. Undersea pipelines carry oil and gas to Uran, near Mumbai, some 120 NM away. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

growth in credit will be stronger and also catch up on rural growth while NIMs might not keep up before increasing realisations on loans again inthe April – June quarter.. HDFC Bank is unlikely to be compared on Fee income growth with Indusind but may continue back on a handsome growth after an average Q4 while 30 growth in Profits and 20 growth in Sales is a given, again handsomely beating INR!0B expectations on NPAT and . Axis Bank will have reported by Wednesday and may have mixed tidings with a sharper cut in NIMs for a SELL on news flavvor by Wednesday

The street is as alawys positively expectant on Infosys after de-rating the stock but being the eternal optimist, my followers may be a little shocked to realise that I don’ t think bad news in i/nfosys has been factored well enough. But this time around, weak global demand will be welcomed with less derision and more participants ready for a short play on the ‘bellwether’ as Dollar guidance of 8% growth may be struck down further because of the same reason they are postponing hiring – no clients, less additions.

TCS is expected to gorw profits 35% over Q1 last year and Infosys itself will improve EBITDA by 100 points on the Rupee average rate moving out of bounds but that is unlikely to keep Infy at 2488 and thus see an intra day correction in TCS tomorrow before it is ready for its own results announcement. Ideally , be very sure of the sentiment before you move in these scrips.


An HDFC Bank Branch in Hyderabad
An HDFC Bank Branch in Hyderabad (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Rupee has trended down and MCX and FT finally up only 2% to 1180 and 800 as they make the happy announcement for MCX SX which has been trading just currencies

TATAGLOBAL and PRIME FOCUS seem to be the best picks int he sideays move the market is hoping to stick to and REC and PFC have been creeping up. ONGC is likely to outscore 280 on a diesel price hike and BPCL already up at 782. If there is another Vertical move HPCL and BPCL will move further


Food and Fertiliser Subsidies, No FDI, Oil bill and state elections

Indian Rupee Symbol

Banking and Infra dominated Nifty and Sensex was shocked into its monthly / quarterly ‘uprising’ from food and fertiliser stocks as fertiliser subsidies are intact in run up to the late yet dull and desperate Budget Report for March 15, 2012

RBI is under pressure again as MOFCOM forces all loss of FDI on PE rules regarding options to selll back to promoters. Such rin built options are attributed to 9 out of 10 FDI deals and are strongly objected to by the regulator and banned since September 2011. RBI insists such exposure with sell back options be treated as loans

Meanwhile the Aviation auditor’s report singled out the cash strapped airlibnes for “glaring deficiencies” in the safety standards was not a CSI style water borne success in destroying the sector. Thence the watchdog has changed chameleonic colors to put profitable indigo in the dock for “dancing around” with the rules

The UIDAI meanwhile has no hope for resurgence being out of funding and at danger of being chopped off in the middle of implementation again as budget parleys bring back other ministry’s demands for a parallel similar scheme out of various single data registers like the central pension organisations and the tax men The Oil bill has become hard to pay even otherwise with reserves accounted by Corp India’s money markets splurge abroad.

Kissan cards could get alignment as financial inclusion vehicles also counted as debit cards represeing a deposit account giving banking access to the 100 mln card holders. SUUTI will continue to leverage its assets “to keep liquidity for redemptions” and no other leveraging is planned says Finance Secy ont he tube ahead of budget. Also though unrelated to the budget only 7 out of 10 billionaires survived 2011 according to market cap recomputations by the “ETIG”

While the Rs 1 Tln extra borrowing ( announced 992 bln ) may not fill more than ordinary expenses,

200 px
Image via Wikipedia

without buy backs swallowed by State PSUs, the spending of Rs 1.5 Tln on food subsidies already made this year and the new 1.6 Tln on energy with INR 475 bln planned for ONGC and a INR 100 bln for the rest of the producers  leaves another 1 Tln hole in governance even as Mamta stays centerstage ahead of elections in NaMo and BSP ridden UK/UP twith Punjab Manipur and Goa. UP elections will go on thru February.

Divestment by any other name..

Securities and Exchange Board of India
Image via Wikipedia still filling state coffers under duress

SEBI’s pronouncements allowing “Top 100” Listed corporates to fulfil conditions of the Listing by ensuring 25% pbulic float euphemised state sponsored filling up of fiscal deficit and much likemedical measures to force ellbeing and welfare of the poor class, the government’s plans fro buybacks from Public Sector Enterprises brought more blowback on to the governemt as the Top 100 companies include MMTC, NMDC, Coal India, ONGC  and  many others who have more than even 90% while SEBI requires them to hold not more than 75% with non public categories of investors.

English: Logo of National Thermal Power Corpor...
Image via Wikipedia

However while earlier dispensations disalllowed transferring of the overages or the extra stakes from promoters or other associates thru QIPs now SEBI has sanctioned the same as two additional measure of Institutional Placement programme and an OFS ( OFfer for Sale) thru stoc exchanges to enable the government to sell down its stake in these companies and bring them 10% closer to the 75% mark while it helps the government achieve its Divestment target for the year.

As neither cross holdings nor use of company cash to buy back largesse in equity was planned as such by the PSEs , the government still faces an uphill task in getting the quorum and using these PSE proceeds ad the Top 10 companies on the bourses today include 3 such Public sector players

English: Logo of Oil India.
Image via Wikipedia

Apart from ONGC, Coal India and NTPC i n the top 3 by market Caap, the next 3 incl Sail India, Oil India and NHPC may also not be a good source of cash reserves for buybacks of the government’s excess holding while NALCO and Neyveli Lignite management is likely to reserve their judgement against the ideaa to save cash for productive business investment making government’s task difficult  yet this approach would have been a feasible opportunity and is likely the only reason why our fiscal creep will remain below 1% to 5.5% of GDP

A State sponsored SWF

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited
Image via Wikipedia

While the planning commission has apparently detailed all sector expenditure till now, the forex crisis is likely to continue for the state as the Indian rupee looks for levels like 65 and 72 while hanging on to 50 rupee levels.

India’s 117 bln deficit ( for the first eight months) structural disconnects from the global scenario and the inability of monetisation as a tstrategy to fill shortfalls in even a single head of expenditure means that the government is trying everything in the book to avoid the fisc crossing 5.4-5.5% against a target of 4.6% Excess expenditure on food and fertiliser subsidies amount to $10 bln by itself, and the bill goes on to include many other subsidies incl the one on energy (fuels) Stae Electricity Boards and infrastructure providers like BHEL have long employed barter in economic trade domestically and internationally as well as sale and lease back. States are running higher interest bearing $1.5 bln and more of bonds to pay for their deficit this year

The impact on our forex reserves of $310 bln ( Currency reserves are more than 90% of the reserves) can easily be imagined and thuis automatically there is more pressure on the rupee to go down rather as warranterd by the transactions required much like any of the midcaps trading in our own market with hardly 1% volume in traded shares

Bombay High, South Field. Undersea pipelines c...
Image via Wikipedia

All the above reasons cannot preclude one from using some of those reserves for the state sponsored infrastructure debt fund and thus the SWF india still does not own. Those investments will fill critical gaps in Indi’s social and physical infrastructure and are a required head for planners to cement and excute in the period till 2017. The fiscal deficit in the mean time will be funded by such interesting propositions as cross ownership of equity of PSE already employed extensively in traditionally developed economies of Europe and unlikely to cause much more discomfort than having state enterprise managements on their toes. even if ONGC, SAIL and BHEL are taken first and buybacks in COal India also considered we will more than cross the over spend on food and fertiliser subsidies and reduce the burden on OMCs However PSEs might want to wait to find like minded PSEs for cross holdings like the OMCs int he same sector with ONGC and if such patchwork can be arranged in the next 4-6 weeks, I daresay people would be willing to wait. NMDC already employs cross holdings ina  lot of erstwhile mining companies and the plan for buybacks and cross ownership is as old as the concept of BRIC economies

India’s Energy ambitions in cost woes

Image via Wikipedia

POWER: Of the 15 Mega and 5 UMPP Power projects almost 12 are beihnd schedule or tied down because of inability to complete land acquisition. Coal shortages dealt the final blow and with a lot of noise on rationing of coal for running and soon to be commissioned projects most have expected a slowdown and even fear bad debts forom SEBs to impact lenders in the sector  who would be delaying shchedules at most UMPP and mega power projects. Not only that only 39GW out of planned 60 GW was possible in the eleventh plan till this year, but also that not much is expected to change during the 12th period for the above mentioned constraints sthough funding and PPP models are likely to have more traction if such impediments were not the expected lot

OIL:  Energy major ONGC withdrew its FPO in the AM today, with the rupee falling through most earlier

Mukesh Ambani at the India Economic Summit 2007
Image via Wikipedia

bottoms or stops and unlikely to reverse trend in a hurry. reliance will soon be asked to reverse costs of $1.8 bln it has already claimed from its public partner in profit sharing as its methods and practices, long questioned have been nailed down by the DGH and instead of $7 bln expenses it incurred it will only claim $5.2 bln. Though there are more details to how reliance has managed to claim more costs, and how it will not be able to claim discovery which it has hidden from the government, it will be under duress and disfavor most of this decade as Reliance and BP are unable to find new production levels int he KG D6 fields where production has fallen to 38 MMSCMD, much below the levels of 50 MMSCMD last year and the promised 60..

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
Image via Wikipedia

Currently, BP and Reliance are looking to rope in a state partner going ahead in the same fields (to bear costs of new production techniques? )

Mukesh Ambani is also rumored to pick  up a stake in kingfisher airlines which despite his protestations., seems mor e and more like his expression of disinterest in the core businesses of his flagship Reliance industries and his choice to go into more brand reliant businesses from the same flagships cash reserves

India Earnings Season: A flurry of losses IOC, Ranbaxy

Graph showing Indian rupee and U.S. dollar exc...
Image via Wikipedia

Ranbaxy’s brilliant $126 mln loss in Foreign exchange as it has not yet settled with FDA days before it starts its exclusivity period on Lipitor. The long term contracts , much like the State’s Oil contracts are going to cost India can be visibly seen this quarter. Even 75-100% hedging of receivables by Big Four IT like HCL Tech will be something to shed oil on, fueled by the others willing to run Double or Quits options on Rupee;’s appreciation again. The Rupee has already crossed 50 and with no state intervention and all trade flows mapped out to outflows, India is singularly vulnerable as runs on Europe wipe out investor capital and militarily active China remains a sad trade option at best

Indian Oil

IndianOil produced a giant $1.5 bln loss at INR 74.56 bln, bucked by State Oil procurement expenses of INR 957.88 bln for the quarter, a huge figure even when sales rose by 15% year on year as the subsidy bill becomes an alarming figure for ONGC, IOC and the state that has to decide how much it will be able to afford.


Spurred by the FX loss (pun intended) Ranbaxy reported a INR 4.65 bln or $93 mln loss for the quarter, wiping its slate clean of all evil capitalist trappings. The Japanese owned Pharma major has sales of almost a $95 mln in North America without its exclusivity prd sales from Lipitor-generic-X out of a total of INR 20.27 bln or $405.4mln. Europe is another 16.3% of Sales at $66mln or INR3.3 bln (Figures courtesy (mint)) Domestic sales grew slowly but remained a cool $103 mln in India


Comparatively, India’s slow and ugly Power sector continued to spur a large expansion and good NIMs in Power lending as PFC grew 24% to sales of INR31.45 bln even as profits were limited to INR4.19 bln or $84mln REC infact managed to keep NIMs stable while PFC has grown Income and old loans apparently may have been sloughing off than restructuring issues for its customers(lendees)


Sister company PTC meanwhile could not hold on to Sales reporting INR 23.69 bln in Sales and a lower INR 355.7 mln in profits, but the company has not done much from its year ago portfolio yet


The RPG owned Calcutta utility had trouble in profitability too much in lin e with industry as it still managed a profit of more than $22 mln or INR1.1 bln (25% lower than FY11 September 2010) as Sales grew marginally to INR 127 bln or $2.5bln


Opto is a great buy as it jumped profits on to INR 1.21 bln from 0.77bln last September with Sales of INR 5.56 bln a healthy margin and assured sales on contracted export deliveries till 2015 Sales grew 70% and Profits 56%. (A lot of help from for the figures)

ONGC finally sets sail

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
Image via Wikipedia

The answers to a higher fiscal deficit may well lie in ONGC’s FPO next month as paperwork gets done. With a higher subsidy burden a conservative valuation is a must.. Esp so as the eGoM has never met to even raise Diesel prices. A sale of more govt shares will bring back the Oil major above Coal India, which crossed it in May 2011. With a Market Cap of INR 2.2 Tln, ONGC still lacks the capacity to pull out rabbits from its hat unlike its early hey deys and the coming fall in price of crude may further squeeze its profits. The offering will garner close to INR 10,000 Crores at a 5% discount to today’s market price of arnd INR 253. Retail discounts do make it available to retail investors but with a larger institutional cover , the issue will go through esasily unlike SAIL which withdrew last week ( rescheduled) SAIL would have got the government another $2 bln. PSEs in India have added weight in the Sensex since yesterday’s annoucement for adding Coal India replacing Rel Infra in the index

Predilections: If you still mind shorting the market..


Though that is not from Fibonacci or for the Fib series, some tormentors on virtual soot could very well push the case forit. However while immature shorting has scored a few gray areas out from the market maps n the last few weeks when it began, now traders who get scared by shorting could very well be losing a packet as intra-day movements are long range and compete a week’s trend in half a session for all practical purposes pushed by paper thin volumes. There is a lot of downstream wind for the markets to rest lower and yesterday’s move though decisive and covering a lot of the range down, do leave a lot of room for fresh Put purchases which also has o spread out from an overt concentration on Nifty. .Anywaya lot of us would still be praying for the secular up move to start away, while worried about purchasing that long long position we want. Buying should still be concentrated in smaller lot son the bigger scrips and I really do not see any value mid caps out there with banks and tv networks driving growth and not being really there on the exchanges. (Disclaimer: This author suffered from air shock when NDTV was listed and its over leveraged financials disclosed much later and still continues to consider himself a savvy investor, market maker and trader fit for any Global bank position in Trading, Marketing or Sales)

Predilections: PSUs represent the mass of the resource economy


The redesign of the sensex is still due but two important changes are taking place in the 30 share Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive index. The PSU Coal India and not infra major IDFC entering the indices for its larger market capitalisation and consistent trade volumes. IDFC thus has more PSU ‘proxies’ for those believeing the infrastructure major and its impact and the infra financing plays get totally written off the index as Reliance Infra has to lose its position in the indices with 15 year projects not making a viable case for public equity investment. LNT as a public bellwether remains in the prominent Indian index

The banks re well represented in the sensex and the healthcare sector now has two stars in Cipla and Sun Pharma. The Autos remain represented by old favorites Bajaj Auto and maruti, Tata Motors leaning more on its International profits. Dr Reddy is already outside the index with its profits under pressure of late and no results from its innovation mantra

I wonder why you think ONGC and Coal India respresent India’s markets. Perhaps the Public Indices or FDI specific indices be indeed differently abled, differently designed with MSCI and other cooperation

Energy Infrastructure- India Earnings Season:: The ONGC update

Bombay high
Image via Wikipedia

ONGC , the upstream domestic producer is also upping refining capacity and owns 24 domestic production zones (fields) It had an annual turnover closer to $3.88 billion as India continues to rely on a depleting resoursce shelf or the traditional NELP bidding for the same to improve domestic production. ONGC also paid $1.5 billion in subsidies to OMCs such as Indian Oil on that small turnover and profit was cut to $700 mln at INR 2791 Crores, down 26% for the quarter yoy. While ONGC payout increased from 33% to 38% increasing subsidies by $500 mln, that remitted to IOC actually decreased cutting into their profits as well and the resultant ex parte increase by IOC in Motor Oil by 3.4 cents/Rs 1.35 this week or next may make the picture rosier for both

Net realisation for the full financial year was $53.77 on every barrel sold after giving a discount of $35.64 per barrel. The company’s overall crude oil production last financial year was down to 24.42 million tonnes (mt)from 24.67 mt in the previous year. Gas production remained flat at 23.09 billion cubic meters.

Overall sales during the fourth quarter were up five per cent at Rs 15,554 crore. For the full year, sales jumped 10 per cent to Rs 66,152 crore.(Business Standard)

The other oil producer, Oil India marks a turnover of $1.5 bln and less making their combined production less than half of the country’s requirement with IOC holding close to 40% share in Oil companies

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