SEPTEMBER 2012: RBI CUTS BANK RESERVE RATES BY 25BP

As yields dropped on the reform news, good news kept raining on the markets with Duvvoori Rao going ahead with the much pressured rate cut of 25 bp to give industry a chance to shore up the IIP froma low 0.1% last week to better reports than the expected turnaround in April 2013/June 2013. The cut has not been made in repo or Reverse repo rates but CRR has been cut to 4.5% However this rate cut simply cuts possible maneuverability for the Indian Reserve Bank RBI in the rest of the fiscal. india’s fiscal deficit is likely to be revised to 6% from the budgeted 5.1% as FinMin tries to revive a much hated and shelved disinvestment program but is helped by a Diesel rate hike

Losses from LPG and Diesel have been averted to more than INR 50,000 Crs from the INR 1.3 Tln together from last week’s hike and to that extent government will not be reimbursing nor Oil and Gas producers be paying foregone profits to Oil Marketing Companies.

Yield has in fact gone back up after the policy from a 8.16% trading range in the morning to 8.1726% The future of OMOs is quite clearly what is upsetting as the CRR cut implies RBI would not like to provide further liquidity using adhoc operations later in the month though banks seldom use the liquid assets blocked by CRR even when they are freed.

Fixed Income Report: Credit Policy tuesday likely unsatisfactory

It just hit me that with the fixed Income markets moving so tenuously, the yields of 8.44% ruling on 10?Y today will likely be wiped out within 2 weeks of the trading after a 25 bp rate cut, as markets also expect yields to go back to even 9% and RBI unlikely to follow up with OMOs so diligently after the rate cut.

The Rupee fortunately has a lot of head room in the new range , coming in to policy week at above 51, with March GDP likely to stay near 6% than 6.9%

Fixed Income Report: India back as flavor of the year

Global sentiment has again turned in favor of India as a leader of the trend of survival led growth, thaat is bleeding the best of developed world markets dry with expectations of QE fuelled growth that are increasinglytemporary growth humps on the chart and trending down like a dampening whale’s breath on each injection of liquiidity.

हिन्दी: ताजमहल English: Taj Mahal, Agra, India...
हिन्दी: ताजमहल English: Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Deutsch: Taj Mahal im indischen Agra. Español: Vista del Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Français : Le Taj Mahal, à Âgrâ, en Inde. Русский: Мавзолей Тадж-Махал, Агра, Индия. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Put in simpler terms the yields from $100 in first round of QE is probably as much from $230 in the second round and now that most have more than $1000 invested and are getting half the strength expected to continues in housing and treasury markets, the Indian yields are good to be shopped leading a trend down, though RBI was also mopping extra liquidity out from the markets in today’s run

Indian spices
Indian spices (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Fixed Income Report(Feb 20, 2012): Bond yields scarily poised or just rangebound (India bond Impact)

Inflation data from the CPI index considered more carefully in global monetary policy is ready  with the CSO declaring data from tomorrow ( see last paragraph)

However as we pointed out in a post minutes ago, the Fixed income yields are almost tentatively poised at 8.2% with the markets a primary reason for the tentativeness as the urge to speculate comes to town on Indianomics. India’s OMOs last week of INR 120 bln and the CRR chop to be worth INR 360 bln has not materialised, the inflation at a comfortable below 7% figure may rear its head again soon as manufactured goods indices are not dipping that well, staying nearly 8%

The 10 year at 8.2 % ansd the 12 and 15  year at 8.52% and 8.55% show the yield curve having steepened bu twith no CDS and swaps market with spread unnecessarily compensating to junk levels without liquidity for the market makers to fine tune the action, FIIs are unlikely to come bareback into a new Asian market. Even new bond issue bankers are getting a quarter of the fee last year.

According to Arjun P in the DNA analysis

Liquidity tightened by `56,000 crore last week with the system borrowing `167,000 crore from RBI on a daily average basis. The rising liquidity pressure led to the RBI buying government bonds in OMOs.

That’s INR 560 bln out of the window even as banks move rates down and RBI borrowing now all corrected to 9.5% the designated MSF by RBI getting higher than India’s high trade deficit and nearer 5 times banks could have released from their Central Bank acocunt after the CRR cut, almost all of it could easily be explained as amounts banks have in excess deposits with the RBI. Banks are moving to cut loan rates, having made affirmative stateements and SBI having seen as reducing Edu loan rates in the press.

The point is that the rates are precipitously poised on yield as rate cuts are months away and moves down could hit growth badly while yields moving up back to 8.5% ont he 10 year bond will necessitate the overtly stretched government finances to arrannge for another OMO

Last but not the least Oil has moved up to $120 levels one spike to $150 likely and 12% of our supply in Iranian oil in as mucha  threat as also half our rice exports and many in tea and fruita and vegetables to Iran. The Afghanistani Oil we have planned for also travels thru Iranian ports huh! wow.

Inflation data on the CPI series is in for the first time as a yearly series becomes available from Tomorrow, and likely coming in near 8% ( watch the lovely rural vs urban vs composite chart at livemint.com) , instead of the feared 10% unless there is another spike in January data. As of December the rural indices have moved to 115 and the composite 113.9 data available from January 2011 when rural was 107 and composite 106. The urban sub index started from 104 in Jan 2011 and ended last year at 112.4

Bank Results Season: ICICI Bank (Q2 FY 2012) shows increased earnings capacity in limited potential

ICICI Bank Headquarters, BKC
Image via Wikipedia

The Topline at the bank hardly grew 10% over last year to INR 25.06 bln or hardly $500 mln and just INR 1 bln up or 4% from Q1 June 2011 of INR 24.11 bln

While Top line and hence Balance sheet size is almost the same ($45 bln @$1=Rs50) the bank has halved its Net NPas to 0.8x% from 1.06% to improve its standalone bottom line to $301 mln or Rs 1506 crores and Rs 1932 crores or almost $483 mln from is consolidated operations as retail wealth (mf and insurance ) improved performance. The bank does look at improving its NIM given the improvement in operating efficiencies but is grossly behind HDFC bank in credit growth esp as September saw Private and MNC banks making a killing in retail loans (Auto and unsecured/NBFC)

The stock is staying up even as FMCG major HUL also posts results and thus the bank will be the mainstay of the markets later when the press meet happens before market close

PAT is up 20% from September 2010 for the quarter for the bank

PRESS MEET:

Bank has met 18% credit growth for the half year despite no growth in Q2 NIMs are safe as they will be determined from cost of funds

Its exposure of INR 36000 crores or $7.20 bln are safe and are being tracked. Coal is being procured from OMOs (7% of advances) No bad debts as for Indusind bank

As advances grow CASA will grow on priority with CASA now 42% the rest only based on demand of liabilities

Not moving away from retail . Both retail and corporate get equal focus but unsecured loans are attriting.

43% growth in cons profit has come mainly from Life insurance business

Provisions have fallen as unsecured legacy retail has completed provisioning and is a small portfolio

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