India Morning Report: It’s the banks, stupid!

The January series, with three days to go in the New Year, has started optimistically and apparently is in no hurry to trade. however within the two trading sessions including the first 15 minutes of today, Banknifty has already managed to 11600 levels without undue weightage to the losing PSUs. That being the target no one probably wanted to exit the 70% of India’s banking in PSU Banks forever not served by the State Bank of India or the PNB recognised as winners earlier separating them from the sick pack.

But given this start on the Banknifty this time, one would expand the role of the Private Sector banks in this rally to 13500 where one first probably evaluates its value score in terms of future March 2015 earnings

Meantime, Havells and Idea seem to be the scrips to nod to given their position in the trend and coming FY results as December numbers get reported only after two weeks and more hints are sought towards the Fiscal close where India would assess its gap in Economic terms as well, having assumed at the start of April that they would be much closer to a 6% GDP recovery

The infraco trade will like to preempt more hopeful whispers from North and South Block, the fate of the Congress government precariously hanging in balance and the hope outlasting the pushing back of most important decisions and any spending to post elections, a Vote on account coming in February to last the interim period

India certainly batted the 2nd Test well but with rains likely to spoil two more days of that game, its a virtual close to the year on a less than even score having barely eked out  a draw in the first to save face.



The LNG hike in Delhi seems to be a good marketing strategem launch timed to last throughout 2014 and players in IGL , GAIL and Reliance that starts producing under the new price from April 2014 sales. Diesel cos lasted most of yesterday with more than 1-3% gains fo rthe reported news of increasing the gap closing of diesel subsidies at INR 10 per Liter

Food inflation has shifted from Onions to potatoes, but will tick down the overall cPI before the fuel inflation statrts up in Q2 FY15


THE INDIA BUDGET 2012: Banking for All, Infrastructure and Industrial Development

70,000 habitations have been covered successfully in Swabhimaan. to be extended to all habitations of Pop>1000 in NE and hilly states and Pop>2000 else where

PPP investment reliance to continue , INR250 bln of INR 500 bln expected from Private Sector. Irrigation,

61 [the big mac index]

Dams, Fertilisers , Oil &Gas, LNG Storage, Telecom Towers and Eqpt all added to list of items for Viability Gap Funding of ProjectsSelf Reliance in the Defence Sector

Reaction: Where will the money come from

INR 100 bln for NHAI, and IRDL, INR 100 BLN for Power Sector and INR 50 Bln for Small sscale and other institutions

Propose INR 600 bln of infrastructure Bonds

IIFCL – Credit Enhancements and Takeout Finance provision, PPP projects.

NMP for 10 crore Jobs and 25% of GDP contribution

Reaction: Pie in the sky

Some longwinded comment on Coal provision, FM hurriyng thru. Power impact missed by this blog/spreadsheet

MoST to award 7000 kms under NHDP , 40% higher from 5000 kms last year

PPP in Road construction

FDI of 50% in Air Transport and MRO under active consideration

Central Assistance on INR 185 bln and Japanese $4.5 bln  for DMIC projects

National Housing Fund to INR 40 bln. Interest subvention of 1% extended for affordable housing

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