India Morning Report: A new high for the Nifty looks likely in the run up to the Budget 2014

Rahul-gandhi
Rahul-gandhi (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Though the Planning commission decides most of the Capital investment allocations beforehand including government’s share of state spending and Big Ticket Infrastructure spending, the Bidget document next month is still likely to give enough impetus to the incumbent government to approach the General elections in 2014 positively ‘under new management’. Apart from Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to the throne which needs to be sponsored or vetted by India Inc sooner than later, India is now mostly looking at global cues after, as the MOS man, Raamdeo Agrawal said on TV18 right now, problems in both the energy and IT services sectors have been resolved for the time being.

We are headed for true deregulation in energy prices and that’s a relief for ratings hawks as well as those items of profligate public spending when it was indeed all getting burned up in oil spend (subsidy)

A few items of trivia glue that has confetti sticking to India Inc’s big weekend party and the world at large before we begin the Monday Morning Dharma. China’s labor force has decreased by a large 3.45 mln this month from more than 940 mln last year. GDP growth in China was yet 7.9% after a 7.4% November taking the 2012 number to 7.8% overall and likely saving it from recession adding just under 3 mln in new jobs, and urban populations almost stopped growing with expected rural migration to 712 mln (urban population)

Also our working population of women may be interested, women seem to more heart attacks on Saturday and Monday and as this data pertains to North America, it can pertain to only Working women and not homemakers. Heart attacks are 27%  more likely to occur around your birthday, and though this article pertains to our female friends, in our country at least more men than women die of heart attacks)

Swiss banks are indeed closing down, the first one in the world at Wegelin the first victim having started in 1741 but Davos is still happening with the world’s wealthiest and the large Bank CEOs and Presidents making it there to party into the night. JP Morgan CEO Dimon though paid out $11.5 mln half his 2012 package for indiscretions as head of CIO investments. Global banks have paid nearly $5 B in fines between HSBC and UBS for regulatory oversight and half , especially those with European lineage are shutting down their business in Investment Banking

More importantly the Aussie is roaring back even as US markets remain closed today and the BOJ likely to hit the precipice button when they meet on QE spending for Japan later in the day, the Yen already circling 90 and in recent history reaching almost 25 years since it has eyed the 100 mark to the US Dollar, let alone the AUD

Taxes on the super rich, seem unlikely unless the next General elections cause another rupture in stability that the media is almost imperceptibly wishing for, to solve their quads of issue boredom. Another month and we will be just tlaking budget wishes in duty cuts and tax writeoffs in the run up to the budget , all serving to mask any new legs of India’s Economic policy that may be unleashed in Budget 2014. Stock up on big banks and Infracos apart from the leads on NBFCs unless you had indeed been waiting for Infosys and OIL to come back, whence you must book profits this week and watch. The OIL divestment will indeed release nearly 30 bln for the GOI fisc blues. Another interesting issue taking shape is how the regulators and FinMin will stop the bleed as MNCs dry up profits with larger royalties back home leaving their now not to be delisted Indian arms with nothing to entice domestic shareholders and a government backlash is inevitable despite the GOI having allowed then unlimited royalty just in December 2009

 

 

 

India 3.0 – A question of balance (A Calendar of Economic Events)

Trading strategies are more the norm at this time of the day but the markets have finally regressed the entire cycle of events from the mid 90s to retrieve a year or at least a month of flat no move left stock markets and the rupee after a valiant afternoon early last week, follows into submission.

By our calendar, India Inc and indian polity have more twiddling of thumbs despite the Parliament out of the way till New Year festivities start in earnest and the Opposition crosses probably into a near win zone against the losing Indian government, a sinking ship, ripe for deserters and hence the time for foreign media to make a tattle tale red a**ed monkey impact on things.

One still thinks ofcourse that India Inc will survive the remaining year as the financial markets have, propped by liquidity though consumption is likely to be a dampenedr in the coming festive season with means stripped of all respect in the Ways and Means advances of a government, 33% of plan spending and 52% of non plan spending exhausted in one quarter and personal consumption enjoying the hit from inflation every week.

Ofcourse the Indian polity has been early pioneer and we the commentators have been as usual late in adapting to India 3.0 which like 1.0 and 2.0 before simply refuses to budge from positions, movements and growth rates established last after a severe drought in the early 20th century and a westernised relief program by the then British sponsored Congress governments in the principalities of Indian maharajahs.

The Anna movement has fizzled out without a viable political color, NaMo and Nimo apparently not good for a national calling and Rahul Gandhi not coming out to take charge, the old generation moving on has also provided pause for those of us born in the 70s as more entry line recrutiting takes salaries , if any , to 20 somethings and no growth industry replaces againg telecom infrastructure stories banks amnaging to gro credit to NBFC, Real estate (Affordable Housing) and other services industries.

FDI collars for old sectors, new banks and growth calls for the pack waiting for work yet still snagging salaries at IPL linked marketing companies, erstwhile growing BPO and IT companies or NPA hit PSU banks are yet a year or more away. Not much is expected from IIP data and Manufacturing Output growth data on Wednesday while Friday’s WPI data and that of FX reserves is unlikely to move decisively either, yet not be in the rut, WPI having improved for the last three-four months. European inflation data is likely to be worse today when most nations report than tomorrow when Italy and Sweden are scheduled to report while key South Korean, Russian and Aussie data speeden the recovery by the currencies against the dollar.

India / Asia Deal News and Prospects

The Anna movement has fizzled out without a viable political color, NaMo and Nimo apparently not good for a national calling and Rahul Gandhi not coming out to take charge, the old generation moving on has also provided pause for those of us born in the 70s as more entry line recrutiting takes salaries , if any , to 20 somethings and no growth industry replaces againg telecom infrastructure stories banks amnaging to gro credit to NBFC, Real estate (Affordable Housing) and other services industries.

FDI collars for old sectors, new banks and growth calls for the pack waiting for work yet still snagging salaries at IPL linked marketing companies, erstwhile growing BPO and It companies or NPA hit PSU banks are yet a year or more away. Not much is expected from IIP data and Manufacturing Output growth data on Wednesday while Friday’s WPI data and that of FX reserves is unlikely to move decisively either, yet not be in the rut, WPI having improved for the last three-four months. European inflation data is likely to be worse today when most nations report than tomorrow when Italy and Sweden are scheduled to report while key South Korean, Russian and Aussie data speeden the recovery by the currencies against the dollar.

AT THE TIME OF THE LAST SUCH STASIS IN THE MID90s WE DID NOT SEE COCACOLA QUIT OR KFC INTRODUCE VEGGIE MENUS BUT MANY LEFT INDIAN SHORES FOR A “PAN ASIAN” PRESENCE and as of now the European Banks are leading the same trend even as their future stays inextricably linked to the Asian movers and shakers.

MEANWHILE Heineken’s Asian Deal has generated interest for real estate reasons as well, with the makers of Tiger Beer and F&N juices also owning the largest property on Singapore’s Orchard Road, worth 50% more than Tiger Beer’s sale proceeds.

Also Kingfisher has moved on from probable and hope ful to near certain death as it keeps the skeletal senior management onboarded at a cost of INR 675 Crs according to a ET weekend report.

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