India Morning Report: No Taper and Nifty on to 6100 levels

A rather unexpected reticence by the Fed, allowed Global markets to uncoil their expectations of a taper and the Indian Rupee opened at its best price of INR 61.5 today barely hours after the announcement. the shorts on banks disappeared overnight as did the opportunity in depreciation lit IT with the Banknifty finally moving 650 od d points to above 11000 today and the 7% increase in ICICI Bank to 14% in Yes Bank possibly still allowing steam in the rally to 6300+ levels and a long awaited rally in the banks with the liquidity measures likely to go away. (what if there’s no taper?)

Apart from the bigger damage to shorts on Banks, the rally has caught most by surprise and thus some may wait out for lower levels to start again, but stopping market enthusiasm at 6080 levels itself is likly to fail with the momentum of the event generated uncoiling allowing immediate 6300 levels. Also the taper remains on the horizon for the US Fed as it tries to tackle the question from a new structural cap to growth in the US and the  Rupee may be allowed to break below  to erase the damage since May

F1 Australia Grand Prix - Thursday
F1 Australia Grand Prix – Thursday (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Indian yields are back to 8.16% levels. ITC and  Bharti have continued investor fueled upmoves at 350 levels, while Sun Pharma and ONGC and the Energy companies rebound to 2010 levels. Investors also found the chances to get back into Hero Honda and Maruti, both of which may easily by rejected later for Bajaj Auto in the Auto/Two wheeler sector

The Rupee might close a little lower but above 62 till 4pm and in RBI trades after.

Pre Closing Trading Strategies – And We Said The Rally Maybe Could Not Hold Off Friday

 

As suspected/expected depending on your lingua franca and the youth in your team, Markets survived 5500 so well that they could not keep their hands off a big rally into the weekend, ending Friday with a likely 150 point  gain on the Nifty and a 400 point gain on the BankNifty. AxisBank is finally1120 and so Monday opening will unlikely see a straight line improvement from 5700 levels exp the Bank nifty ripe for a few points of bargaining.

As commentators hae mentioned and has been obvious in the last few days, buying has in fact become more frenzied as institutions realise India will be the last minute pronounced outperformer int he region despite the bad news economics continuing not even till the bottom in April but as recently asa week back when the IIP dat came out at 0.1% aand prompted another string of Growth GDP forecast downgrades to 5.5%

Most of these commentators have a bad eye or shall we say long lost cousins that seem to find their favor in the amrket rally as the obvious ones defy commentary. However the Banks and Infracos remain the sectors to invest in and again a Hobson’s choice for institutions still waiting for the elusive dip. Also healthcare could indeed come back as the second leg of the rally given that Infracos were almost simultaneous in their move with banks. I am an investor in RELINFRA so that is one stock I can eagerly mention as a bull weather friend.  JETAIRWAYS IS ripe for those not locked in and roving eyes might still catch these and heath scrips like SUN at new levels for a big run. ITC would be a dream pick but more accumulation is likely as the market tries to find time for mid cap consumer companies probably even VIPIND

 

India Morning Report (July 12, 2012) : Tech results eye-opener, rupee rearing to lose it

NINE NEW RUPEES IN A ROW
NINE NEW RUPEES IN A ROW (Photo credit: Michael Francis McCarthy)

Infy PAT is down sequentially to INR22B and revenue INR 96B despite the firm holding out on appointment letters ( which again surprises one assuming infosys is a proactive firm than a reactive one)

Though the Won and to some extent the SGD have come back from a month ago levels, the indian Rupee is all too willing to not return to 54 levels and run back on every day we extend the bearish correction in the indices. Infy margins will expand and in a couple of minutes it will be on the wires as a INR 96 B revenue tag finally becomes a small enough number for most to ignore. The management is likely to further reduce their Dollar growth targets and despite rupee depreciation of nearly 10% in the quarter TCS will report margin degrades from wage hikes (33bp) and cross currency movement(?) as the Euro plunged in the same period.

Biocon seems to have consolidated at german levels again in the mid break period of the rally at 240 and is likely to become a good pick going into its results within the week. autos seem to have corrected enough bu tthen there may be very few candidates losing their shirt in this mini week so everyone is a cynosure for the bears’ eyes.

Indian markets are however definitely beyond the IT outsourcing era so to expect a deeper correction except in IT for the new General Manager at GM to cut outsourcing at GM after doing the same at HP

infosys pune smoking zone at night
infosys pune smoking zone at night (Photo credit: srijankundu)

India closing report : Rupee Rally to continue, Stocks to jump to another gap opening

English: Signatures of Manmohan Singh. Top in ...
English: Signatures of Manmohan Singh. Top in english, lower in Hindi. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As Friday wound down in equities, the morning’s gap opening held up and Wall Street was celebrating the summit as well leaving little doubt to Monday open marks on the Nifty. My personal trading strategy has been to hold on to my good investments and recommendations and buy into the bank nifty by selling a few puts and buying the ATM/OTM calls at 5300/5400. Selling the Put keeps the money off your mind with margin paid and you get instant credit. Of course selling Puts in a rally like this is because there is no chance left to take and thus you will have to buy it back later at you chosen peak ( I would not suggest a number at this juncture as this is a fresh rally for all intents and purposes )

Rupee’s rise will aid the rally sentiment though a perfect correlation is unlikely. There is no shortcovering in this rally the market having stayed up above 5110. Of course a couple of corrections along the way are only too possible and thus Monday afternoon will be a key test of whether the index retraces to 5180 or stays at 5250 levels for some sessions and there are no recent marks in that range. Whence the Infrastructure and Healthcare sector sentiments would be critical as they have been holding back for the big jump and Sun would need to take a breather in Pharma stocks

Bank Nifty is likely unstoppable, banks having shed all their bad data in the last few quarters and results are due in another two-three weeks after Infosys kicks it off here in India and JP Morgan follows after the Alcoa earnings on the calendar

Rupee fell to below 56 levels and NSE Currency segment stayed above 56 but mostly for salutory purposes or hoping for enough exits for another satta on the dollar but come Monday they will largely follow the reform news flow, again a reason for equities to rally if we can just keep up with Manmohan Singh’s dream team for India.

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